Chargers’ Playoff Scenarios: Should They Fight for the No. 5 Seed or Rest Up?

The Los Angeles Chargers may have clinched their spot in the playoffs, but they enter Week 18 with something that many believe is worth fighting for in terms of seeding. The Chargers do not control their own destiny, but there is a chance they could have a shot of finishing as the No. 5 seed, which offers a more desirable path through the AFC playoff picture.

Let’s use the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor to examine the Chargers’ scenarios for finishing with the No. 5 seed in the AFC and why, if the opportunity exists, it is a spot worth fighting for.

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What Are the Los Angeles Chargers’ Current Playoff Scenarios for Week 18?
How the Chargers approach Week 18 will very much depend on what happens in the two Saturday games. The results of those games will dictate whether the Chargers have anything to play for in Week 18 or whether they can look to give the majority of their starters rest.

As things stand, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed in the AFC, tied at 10-6 with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens clinched the third seed and AFC North after beating the Browns earlier on Saturday.

The combination of results in the two Saturday games determines nearly everything.

The key things to remember before we go through these scenarios:

The Steelers beat the Chargers in Week 3, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
The Ravens beat the Chargers in Week 12, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
The Chargers beat the Denver Broncos in both meetings this year, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
All divisional ties are resolved first, so there are no multi-team tiebreaker scenarios, meaning head-to-head is the only tiebreaker we will need.

Baltimore Wins and Pittsburgh Wins
If this scenario plays out on Saturday, the No. 3, No. 5, and No. 6 seeds in the AFC would be locked entering Sunday, and the Chargers would be unable to impact things at all. The Ravens would be 12-5 and would win the AFC North. The Steelers would be 11-6, and the Chargers could only match them if they won on Sunday.

Therefore, with the Steelers having the tiebreaker over the Chargers, the seeding for these three teams will be Ravens at No. 3, Steelers at No. 5, and Chargers at No. 6.

Baltimore Wins, Ties, or Loses, and Pittsburgh Loses (or Ties)
If we see either of these scenarios on Saturday, then the Chargers would have a lot to play for on Sunday. In this scenario, the Ravens would clinch the division, and the Steelers would be left at 10-7 (or 10-6-1 if they tie). That would allow the Chargers to take the No. 5 seed with a win. If Pittsburgh loses, the Chargers would only need to tie, but if Pittsburgh ties with Cincinnati, the Chargers would need to win.

Some people will make the case that the Chargers should rest players in Week 18, regardless of what happens on Saturday. However, that is not the smart play based on our metrics. If the Chargers are the No. 6 seed, they have to play either the Steelers or the Ravens on the road. If the Chargers get the No. 5 seed, they face the Houston Texans on the road.

Before we talk about the impact of the weather conditions and the cold, let’s focus on the opponents. The Ravens are second in PFN’s PR+ rankings, the Steelers are 11th, and the Texans are 17th — and the Chargers are 12th. Even on the road, the Chargers project as slight favorites over the Texans according to our metrics. However, in Baltimore or Pittsburgh, they are underdogs.

When you factor in the weather as well, a trip to Houston becomes much more desirable. The game in Houston will be played in a stadium with a retractable roof compared to open to the elements in Baltimore or Pittsburgh. As a warm-weather-based team that plays in a covered stadium, those conditions in Houston are significantly better for the Chargers.

The Chargers are 4-2 this season when playing outdoors on the road, but those wins came against Cleveland, New England, Carolina, and Denver, compared to losses at Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The current forecast in Pittsburgh and Baltimore for Wild Card Weekend is temperatures around 30 degrees Fahrenheit and even potentially snow in Pittsburgh. In Houston, they are looking at temperatures just below 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

The benefits of facing Houston in Houston over facing either Baltimore or Pittsburgh on the road are clear to see. Therefore, if the Chargers have the chance to compete for the No. 5 seed, the data would suggest that is the right play. If that opportunity is taken away from them, then the sensible decision is to rest up in Week 18 and prepare for a cold-weather game in Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

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