Michigan or UC San Diego? How to pick 5 vs. 12 matchup in 2025 March Madness bracket

The bracket has been determined, and now is the time to fill out your copy to try and predict every matchup perfectly. While many people are tempted to not predict an upset, the beauty about March Madness is that anything can happen.

The 5-12 matchup is always a tough one to call. It feels easy to just go with the five-seed because they are technically a top-20 team in the tournament field, but the 12-seed earned its way there and could be riding a hot streak of its own. This year, the 5-12 matchup in the South region features No. 5 Michigan taking on No. 12 UC San Diego. 

The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament with a narrow win over Wisconsin. Michigan had a rough end to the regular season, losing three games in a row to finish out the regular season by dropping games to Illinois, Maryland and Michigan State, with two coming at home. The fun of March is that teams must get hot at the right time. Even with the losing streak, Michigan had a good shot at an at-large bid as long as it didn’t get booted from the conference tournament early. Not only did the Wolverines do that, but they also beat Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin to hoist their first Big Ten conference tournament since 2018.

UC San Diego may be overlooked, but its epic mascot is hard to ignore. The school is known as the Tritons, and the mascot looks straight out of “The Little Mermaid.” King Triton is a jacked sea king donned with a white beard and crown. While some may laugh at the mascot, it didn’t stop UC San Diego from winning the Big West conference tournament for an automatic bid. The Tritons only lost four games the entire season, with the most recent on January 18. UC San Diego is riding the momentum of a 15-game win streak, including the conference tournament, and has an upset on the mind. 

Who should you pick in this No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed game? The Sporting News breaks it all down below. 

SN’s MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable PDF

Michigan vs. UC San Diego oddsMichigan is a 3.5-point favorite over UC San Diego at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is set at 140.5.

Below are odds and details about the first-round matchup, including the date, time, and TV channel when it becomes available. 

Odds: Michigan -3.5Date: Thursday, March 20Time: 10 p.m. ETTV: TBSArena: Ball Arena in Denver, ColoradoWATCH: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego on TBS with Sling

Michigan (25-9, 14-6 in Big Ten)Dusty May, the author of FAU’s stunning Final Four run in 2023, has engineered a tremendous turnaround in year one at Michigan, going from eight wins to 22 and counting – and the group he has assembled is one of the most unique in the tournament.

The Wolverines have two 7-footers in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. That combination doesn’t always work, but this one has. Goldin took a few games to settle in, but he’s an excellent scorer near the rim, while Wolf, a Yale transfer, can do a bit of everything. Averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game and shooting just under 35 percent from beyond the arc, Wolf can wreck an opposing defense. 

During the regular season, the metrics were screaming out that Michigan wasn’t as good as its record. That started to show itself late in the season in losses to Illinois and Maryland, plus a narrow escape at home against Rutgers. The Wolverines won plenty of close games, which, on one hand, is a skill but, on the other, could be taken as a red flag. That’s something to consider when filling out your bracket. 

Perhaps more important in the first round is the fact that Michigan does so many things so well. The Wolverines’ size is undeniable, but they also have a pair of impressive shooters in Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett. They spread the ball around well and rank in the top 45 in assists. 

Turnovers are one area of real concern – with 14.4 per game, Michigan averages more turnovers than every power conference team other than Colorado. An opponent that swarms the ball could give the Wolverines plenty of trouble if that issue isn’t fixed. – Dan Treacy

NET ranking: 25KenPom ranking: 25Quad 1 record: 9-6Quad 2 record: 5-2Quad 3 record: 6-0Quad 4 record: 2-0Offensive efficiency ranking: 47thDefensive efficiency ranking: 14thKey playersDanny Wolf, F, Jr. (7-0, 225): 12.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.7 apg

Vladislav Goldin, C, Sr. (7-1, 240): 16.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 bpg

Tre Donaldson, G, Jr. (6-2, 190): 11.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.0 apg

Roddy Gayle Jr., G, Jr. (6-4, 205): 9.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.7 apg

Nimari Burnett, G, Sr. (6-4, 195): 10.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 41.0% 3-pt

UC San Diego (30-4, 18-2 in Big West)The Tritons of UC San Diego are one of the best stories of this college basketball season, reaching the NCAA Tournament with 30 wins in just their second season of eligibility since transitioning from Division II in 2020.

Eric Olen has built a serious team that could have earned an at-large bid if not for winning the Big West Tournament, and the Tritons should be taken very seriously in the first round. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is an all-around force averaging nearly 20 points per game, while Tyle McGhie and Hayden Gray provide the perimeter shooting; McGhie averages almost nine 3-point attempts per game and could give UC San Diego a Jack Gohlke-like jolt in the tournament.

The Tritons hold opponents to just 61.6 points per game, and Gray is a massive reason why. He’s the nation’s steals leader and was named a finalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award. Shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc as well, Gray is the ultimate 3-and-D “glue guy” for UC San Diego. 

Size isn’t the Tritons’ greatest strength, but they did hold opponents to just 44.9 percent on 2-point attempts. More physical teams with better scorers near the rim could give UC San Diego some more trouble, but Olen’s defense has been just as potent as his offense this season – it’s why his team is sixth in the nation in point margin.

Few mid-major teams are as complete as UC San Diego, which has a road win over Utah State on its resume this season. How it will translate to the NCAA Tournament is always a wild card, but it would be a surprise if the Tritons weren’t extremely competitive in the first round. – Dan Treacy

NET ranking: 35KenPom ranking: 36Quad 1 record: 2-1Quad 2 record: 2-1Quad 3 record: 9-2Quad 4 record: 15-0Offensive efficiency ranking: 57thDefensive efficiency ranking: 30thKey playersAniwaniwa Tait-Jones, F, Sr. (6-6, 200): 19.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.6 apg

Tyler McGhie, G, Sr. (6-5m 195): 16.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 39.1% 3-pt

Hayden Gray, G, Sr. (6-4, 190): 10.6 ppg, 3.2 spg, 40.6% 3-pt

Nordin Kapic, F, Jr. (6-8, 245): 10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.2 apg

Chris Howell, G, Jr. (6-6, 185): 5.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.0 apg

Michigan vs. UC San Diego predictionWhich Michigan is going to show up? Is it going to be the Wolverines team that won its last three games against Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin? Or is it going to be the team that lost by 20 at home to Illinois and then to Maryland and Michigan State? Tre Donaldson drove the court in the semifinals and made a game-winning layup against Maryland with 0.4 seconds left. The center, Goldin, could be the most important player on the field. He will have a height advantage over UC San Diego’s best and has to stay out of foul trouble to keep Michigan competitive in the game.

UC San Diego’s best player is Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, or ATJ for short. Tait-Jones is undersized for a forward but is one of the better players in the tournament. Yes, his stats are inflated from the Tritons’ play against the Big West conference, but don’t overlook him. He and McGhie are going to be focal points of the offense. They are going to have a tough time competing with Michigan’s size, so it may come down to how they shoot from beyond the arc. 

I think Goldin and Wolf are too much to overcome, and Michigan dominates the paint in this game. The biggest thing that would swing the pendulum in the Tritons’ favor would be if the Wolverine bigs got into foul trouble. Barring that, Michigan should be able to avoid an upset. 

History of 5 vs. 12 matchups in the NCAA TournamentHere’s a look back at all the 12 over 5 upsets since 2010. Two No. 5 seeds were upset last year. 

YearResult2024Grand Canyon 75, Saint Mary’s 662024James Madison 72, Wisconsin 612022Richmond 67, Iowa 632022New Mexico State 70, UConn 632021Oregon State 70, Tennessee 562019Murray State 83, Marquette 642019Liberty 80, Mississippi State 762019Oregon 72, Wisconsin 542017Middle Tennessee 81, Minnesota 722016Yale 79, Baylor 752016Little Rock 85, Purdue 83 (2 OTs)2014Stephen F. Austin 77, VCU 75 (OT)2014North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 (OT)2014Harvard 61, Cincinnati 572013Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 552013California 64, UNLV 612013Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 462012VCU 62, Wichita State 592012South Florida 58, Temple 442011Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 662010Cornell 78, Temple 65

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