Vikings Receive Brutal Schedule News
Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.
For the second year in a row, the Minnesota Vikings will face a murdererās row of opponents.
Vikings Receive Brutal Schedule News
Sharp Football Analysis released strength of schedule rankings this week, and for the purple team, the docket is the leagueās fifth-most challenging.
Predominantly because the NFC North is so deadly, Minnesotaās road to prosperity wonāt be a cakewalk this autumn.
5th Hardest Schedule, Says Sharp Analysis
Annually, NFL analyst Warren Sharp drops strength of schedule rankings, with the full plate of 256 games nine days away from revelation.
Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota head coach Kevin OāConnell looks on before the game against the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.
Each NFL team already knows its opponents, but the order will be announced on May 14th. The NFL makes a big deal of it.
These are the teams with the sportās easiest schedule, per Sharp:
1) San Francisco 49ers
2) New England Patriots
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Buffalo Bills
And the clubs with the most difficult paths:
28) Minnesota Vikings
29) Philadelphia Eagles
30) Detroit Lions
31) Cleveland Browns
32) New York Giants
Warren Sharpās Method
Sharp goes out of his way to be unique with SoS rankings.
He describes his process: āBasing strength of schedule on last yearās records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient. NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development. Additionally, the NFLās 17-game season introduces a small sample size, where outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.ā
āThese factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance. Statistical analysis supports this: from 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a teamās actual SOS was explained by opponentsā prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years.ā
Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pressured by Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) and linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad (69) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. Ā© Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.
Minnesota will notably feature a new quarterback in J.J. McCarthy this season, so the 22-year-old will experience trial by fire in Sharpās estimation.
Sharps adds: āStrength of schedule calculations based on prior season records do not effectively predict future team success. For instance, regression analysis showed that only 0.028% of a teamās wins could be explained by the traditional SOS metric, with a p-value of 0.79, indicating no statistically significant relationship.ā
āThis underscores the inadequacy of using past records to forecast future outcomes. In short, traditional strength of schedule doesnāt predict anything related to future success.ā
Other Strength of Schedule Metrics
PowerRankingsGuru.com, another outfit that produces custom strength of schedule rankings, claims that Minnesotaās opponents are the third-toughest. Only the Bears and Lions have it more challenging, according to PRG.
And per sheer wins and losses ā the metric called ālazyā by Sharp ā the Vikingsā schedule is also the fifth-most difficult.
Dec 30, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Chicago Bears fans celebrate during the fourth quarter against Minnesota at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports.
In total, the teamās opponent accounted for a 161-128 record in 2024.
Minnesota will play games against nine 2024 playoff teams in 2025, and 11 versus clubs with a 2024 record above .500.
The Full Schedule
Minnesota will play these teams in 2025 (and note that this is not the order):
vs.Ā Baltimore Ravens
vs.Ā Chicago Bears
vs.Ā Cincinnati Bengals
vs.Ā Detroit Lions
vs.Ā Green Bay Packers
vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs.Ā Atlanta Falcons
vs.Ā Washington Commanders
atĀ Chicago Bears
atĀ Cleveland Browns
atĀ Dallas Cowboys
atĀ Detroit Lions
atĀ Green Bay Packers
atĀ Los Angeles Chargers
atĀ New York Giants
atĀ Pittsburgh Steelers
atĀ Seattle Seahawks
Sharpās 2024 Outlook for Comparison
At this time last year, Sharp proclaimed that Minnesota had the NFLās fifth-trickiest schedule ā the same designation as this go-round.
Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (0) celebrates after scoring a touchdown from a fumble recovery against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
The club later finished the season with a 13-4 record.
Sharp Factoid about SoS
Sharp claims the following intel about his metric: āHistorical data confirms these results: Year in and year out ā Teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedule are far more likely to finish with winning records. Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records.ā
āThe vast majority of teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules finish the season with winning records: 11 of 14 such teams in the last two years had winning records. The vast majority of teams forecast to have losing records and predicted to have harder than average schedules finish the season with losing records: 12 of 15 such teams in the last two years had losing records.ā
Itās worth noting that at least one game for Kevin OāConnellās team could occur overseas, probably in Dublin, Ireland, according to the rumor mill.
