UFC 315 predictions: Expert betting picks, odds for each fight on Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena card

The UFC returns to Montreal for the first time since 2015 on May 10. UFC 315 will see two titles on the line, with the main event being Belal Muhammad defending the UFC welterweight title against Jack Della Maddalena. 

Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC) hasn’t lost a fight since 2019 and has beaten some of the best in the division. He owns or is tied for several records at welterweight and can break the record for most decision wins in UFC history if it goes that route at UFC 315. 

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Ranked fifth in the division, Della Maddalena (17-2) has slowly climbed up the ladder. He has beaten some top-tier contenders, and the striker is ready to bring gold home to Perth. 

The co-main event will see Valentina Shevchenko defending the UFC flyweight title against Manon Fiorot. Coming off a trilogy against Alexa Grasso, Shevchenko (24-4-1) has fought for flyweight gold since 2018. A striking wizard and a future Hall of Famer, she takes on Fiorot (12-1), who hasn’t lost a fight since her debut in 2018. 

Other fighters on the card include Grasso, the legendary Jose Aldo, Benoit Saint-Denis, the rising Jasmine Jasudavicius, and more. 

With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 315. 

UFC 315 expert picks and full card predictionsBelal Muhammad (c) vs. Jack Della Maddalena for the UFC welterweight titlePer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Belal Muhammad is the -188 favorite, while Jack Della Maddalena is the +152 underdog. 

Muhammad lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute, landing triple-digit shots against Gilbert Burns. You will “Remember The Name” on the floor, as he averages 2.28 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Muhammad landed seven against Stephen Thompson, five against Vicente Luque, and nine against Leon Edwards. 

Della Maddalena is a pure striker, landing 6.74 significant strikes. He does absorb a lot of strikes (4.27), and while he averages 0.21 takedowns landed, the Aussie is susceptible to the takedown. 

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Muhammad works well in the clinch, while Della Maddalena fairs better at a distance. Both could respect one another (avoiding Della Maddalena’s power and Muhammad’s presence in the cage), but one must cancel the other out. On the floor, Muhammad could tire JDM out. However, the latter could take home gold if he provides enough pressure with flurries, even by the cage. 

Muhammad may be the veteran and has faced higher competition, but that shouldn’t encourage you to look past Della Maddalena. If Della Maddalena lands to the body, that can severely affect Muhammad’s ability to shoot for a takedown. The Sporting News is going with the underdog here. 

Sporting News prediction: Della Maddalena via split decisionValentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Manon Fiorot for the UFC flyweight titlePer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Manon Fiorot is the -122 favorite, while Valentina Shevchenko is the +100 underdog. 

Shevchenko is one of the most feared strikers in all of MMA. She lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and has a 52% strike accuracy mark. “Bullet” can either punish you for a whole fight or end it with a snap of her fingers. Just ask Jessica Eye. Outside absorbing some of the least significant strikes in MMA (2.00), Shevchenko averages 2.74 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. 

Fiorot lands 6.26 significant strikes and has a 68% strike defense mark. The French fighter decimated Erin Blanchfield in her last fight. She also averages 1.17 takedowns landed and has an impressive takedown defense mark of 93%. 

While Shevchenko is getting older, she still has that warrior spirit and holds multiple records as a flyweight. However, Fiorot is a different opponent for Shevchenko since the Grasso series started in 2023. She can provide pressure via combinations that forces Shevchenko back. Stuffing takedowns and landing one of her own could make Shevchenko uncomfortable.

Shevchenko can pass the guard of Fiorot, stuff any takedown attempt, and take control after tiring her out. Fiorot can use angles to force Shevchenko to make a mistake. The Sporting News leans towards the former, as Fiorot isn’t as aggressive. Shevchenko should prove why being the underdog was a mistake. 

Sporting News prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi; BantamweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jose Aldo is the -225 favorite, while Aiemann Zahabi is the +172 underdog. 

Aldo is a legend, landing 3.62 significant strikes and absorbing minimal (3.72) damage. The Hall of Famer is 2-2 in his last four fights and has gone the distance in six straight contests. On a four-fight win streak, Zahabi lands 4.06 significant strikes. 

The former featherweight champion in Aldo has a long history in Canada, with good and bad results. This trip to Montreal should be the perfect test for him. Aldo has solid takedown defense, can still strike with the best of them, and is deadly in kickboxing. We could see a throwback fight from Aldo, as Zahabi’s resume doesn’t indicate he can be trouble for Aldo. 

Sporting News prediction: Aldo via unanimous decisionAlexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva; FlyweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Natalia Silva is the -250 favorite, while Alexa Grasso is the +190 underdog. 

Grasso lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.44 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In three fights against Valentina Shevchenko, the former champion landed 161 significant strikes. She was also taken down 16 times. Silva lands 5.19 significant strikes, outstriking Jessica Andrade by 50+ shots. 

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As we saw in the Shevchenko series, you can never count Grasso out. The rising Silva is a dangerous threat, but if Grasso could slip past her shots and avoid the takedown, easier said than done, she can reverse the potential damage offered and strike back. With a fourth fight against Shevchenko potentially on the line, a motivated Grasso should get the upset win.

Sporting News prediction: Grasso via split decisionBenoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec; LightweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Benoit Saint-Denis is the -1100 favorite, while Kyle Prepolec is the +600 underdog. 

Prepolec replaced Joel Alvarez a few days before the fight. The veteran has won three straight but hasn’t seen the inside of the octagon since 2019. He has ten wins via knockout. Saint-Denis is on a two-fight losing streak, but “God of War” is an animal. He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.97 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.

When he is on, you should stay out of Saint-Denis’ way. Unfortunately for Prepolec, he is in the line of fire. An upset is always possible, but unlikely. This is where Saint-Denis gets back on track.

Sporting News prediction: Saint-Denis via KO (round one)Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke; WelterweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Mike Malott is the -176 favorite, while Charles Radtke is the +142 underdog. 

Malott lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute. “Proper” also averages 2.27 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, as seen with the four landed against Neil Magny. Radtke lands 3.38 significant strikes. Three straight octagon fights have ended in the first round. 

Radtke has never been taken down in the UFC. Malott can be the first to take him there, but can he keep Radtke down? One mistake could be the end for Malott, which is the prediction here. 

Sporting News prediction: Radtke via TKO (round one)Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius; FlyweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jasmine Jasudavicius is the -370 favorite, while Jessica Andrade is the +280 underdog. 

A former world champion, Andrade lands 6.44 significant strikes per minute. Landing for volume, “Bate Estaca” also absorbs 5.51 strikes. On the floor, Andrade averages 2.23 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Jasudavicius lands 3.71 significant strikes and averages 2.55 takedowns landed. 

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Jasudavicius has climbed the ladder at flyweight and is determined to become the next contender. Andrade has moved around in weight, and while she still packs a punch, she can get decimated when off her game. That is likely to happen against Jasudavicius, who has a six-inch height and reach edge. Taking Andrade down seems likely. 

Sporting News prediction: Jasudavicius via TKO (round two)Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba; Light HeavyweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Modestas Bukauskas and Ion Cutelaba are tied at -110. 

Bukauskas lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 42%. He can also take a fighter down, as seen when he took Marcin Prachnio down twice and submitted him. Cutelaba lands 4.30 significant strikes and averages 4.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. “The Hulk” has traded wins and losses over the last few years. 

When Cutelaba is on point, he is a significant threat. Though his volume is low, Bukauskas can tire you out. Regarding who has an edge, the former should win, as long as he does not falter early. 

Sporting News prediction: Cutelaba via TKO (round three)Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan; Light HeavyweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Navajo Stirling is the -320 favorite, while Ian Erslan is the +245 underdog. 

Stirling lands 5.82 significant strikes per minute and has a 56 % strike accuracy mark. Erslan lands 2.60 significant strikes in his short time in the octagon. Stirling has a seven-inch reach advantage, which can give him the edge. Pushing Erslan back, a Stirling win tracks out. 

Sporting News prediction: Stirling via unanimous decisionMarc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva; MiddleweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Marc-Andre Barriault is the -152 favorite, while Bruno Silva is the +124 underdog.

Barriault lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47%. He does absorb shots (5.58 per minute). Silva lands 3.85 significant strikes and also absorbs some damage (5.28). Both have shown it in their last three-four fights. 

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Silva has fought some of the best the UFC has to offer, while Barriault has fought ruthless competition. Both are fighting for their UFC career, and Barriault competes close to home. Silva is durable and can take damage. That can help against Barriault, but that won’t be enough to get a win. 

Sporting News prediction: Barriault via unanimous decisionDaniel Santos vs. Lee Jeong-yeong; FeatherweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Lee Jeong-yeong is the -120 favorite, while Daniel Santos is the -102 underdog. 

Santos lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.90 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He landed five in his last two fights. However, he hasn’t fought since 2023. Lee Jeong-yeong lands 2.84 significant strikes and averages 0.93 takedowns landed. He is susceptible to getting taken down.

Inactivity is a big issue in fighting. That is especially true when a talented fighter like Lee Jeong-yeong dictates the pace early in fights. The Sporting News is going with “Korean Tiger” getting the win. 

Sporting News prediction: Lee Jeong-yeong via TKO (round one)Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan; BantamweightsPer the FanDuel Sportsbook, Bekzat Almakhan is the -164 favorite, while Brad Katona is the +134 underdog. 

Almakhan is coming off a loss last year against Umar Nurmagomedov, where he got dropped five times. Katona lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 1.88 landed per 15 minutes. All his fights in the octagon have gone the distance. 

Almakhan is a slight favorite, which is not a guarantee. The Sporting News is going with Katona, who could tire Almakhan out for three rounds for another decision win. 

Sporting News prediction: Katona via unanimous decision

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