MLB writer reveals one stat holding Padres back from being World Series contenders

The San Diego Padres, for a brief period, were atop the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West division lead. But, after getting swept, they are a few games back of the Dodgers for the division.

However, their bullpen and solid lineup make for an intriguing postseason team, and could make the Padres a team not many want to face come October. If the starters can turn things around, they’re even more deadly.

But, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated revealed one statistic that the Padres, and surprisingly, the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers, aren’t great at. This statistic is an important, but simple one that has a history of showcasing World Series contenders. That statistic is the home run.

Padres’ Lack of Power Could Hurt World Series HopeWhile the Padres made a slew of moves at the trade deadline, the overall offensive environment hasn’t improved dramatically. The Padres’ offense still isn’t hitting a lot of home runs, and it could jeopardize their World Series chances.

“There is a difference between playing regular-season baseball and tournament baseball.” Verducci writes. “If the Brewers or Padres are going to win the World Series, they must defy a decade of data that suggests you need more power than those teams possess to win it all.”

Verdicci’s point is clear: the Padres’ lack of power will make their World Series odds not great, even if they play well, based on recent history. He revealed the statistics to show why the Padres and the Brewers need to have more power to win it all.

“Why does that matter?” Verducci writes. “The past five World Series champions ranked among the four top home run hitting teams in baseball (in order from 2020: 1, 3, 4, 3, 3).”

Currently, while the Brewers are ranked 18th in home runs this season, the Padres are significantly worse. San Diego ranks 29th, ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates.

This year, the Padres have 106 home runs, 20 ahead of the Pirates, and 10 behind the Kansas City Royals on the MLB team home run standings.

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While the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team unlikely to make the postseason, rank fourth overall with 176 home runs, the Dodgers are second with 185.

San Diego’s path in the postseason won’t be easy, thanks in part to the offense’s struggles this season. By OPS, a metric that includes slugging percentage and on-base percentage, the Padres are ranked 22nd with a .704 OPS, behind plenty of teams that won’t make the postseason.

While their bullpen can carry them, it might not be far. An improvement would be great, and fortunately, despite their overall numbers not looking great, the Padres’ offense in the last 15 games has been significantly better.

In their last 15 games, the Padres have an OPS of .756, which ranks 10th in MLB. Their home run total over their last 15 still isn’t the best, as they have 11 in that span, which ranks tied for 24th.

This statistic isn’t the be-all-end-all of the Padres’ season, but it is a concerning metric that paints the Padres as unlikely World Series contenders. Breaking trends happens in sports all of the time, and with the Padres’ incredible bullpen, there might not be a team better equipped to win the World Series with a poor home run total.

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