Vikings Season Opener Hinges on These Keys
Oct 15, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell looks up at the scoreboard in the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports.
Changes are the norm for NFL teams with free agency and the draft injecting new players every year. The 2025 offseason brought a lot of changes to the Vikings, beginning with a new starting quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.
Will the result be an improved team over last year’s 14-3 squad? The 2024 Vikings had a tremendous season until disappointingly losing the final two games to the Lions, with the division title and top NFC seed on the line, and then in the Wildcard game against the Rams. Sam Darnold had a renaissance season until he unraveled in those two losses, while not having much help from the offensive line, which has since been revamped.
The Vikings’ season opener in Chicago hinges on several crucial keys, from offensive execution to defensive discipline, as Minnesota looks to start 2025 on the right foot.
I’m on record as predicting a 13-win regular season this season, which will include winning the NFC North title and at least one playoff victory. I think the team is improved over last year, especially in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
It’s Vikings at Bears on MNF
I’m optimistic about the Vikings’ chances despite having 11 new starters in Week 1 at Chicago. This was also the case last season for the Vikings, with so many new starters via free agency, and they all came through for the team.
Offense
The offense has five new starters in Week 1, with WR Jordan Addison suspended for three weeks. Adam Thielen steps into his spot, along with Jalen Nailor, who was already a virtual starter as the third receiver and has recovered from a hand injury that sidelined him for the last few weeks.
Nov 17, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) participates in warm-ups before the start of a game against the Denver Broncos at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Berding-Imagn Images.
First and foremost, at the most critical position of QB, McCarthy replaces Darnold, who is now in Seattle (with Carson Wentz the new No. 2 after Nick Mullens departed, and Sam Howell was traded).
There’s a beefed-up and likely much-improved interior offensive line with center Ryan Kelly and guards Will Fries and first-rounder Donovan Jackson.
I’m impressed with Jordan Mason, who will lessen the load on starter Aaron Jones at running back. Jones comes off his best rushing season — 1,138 yards — and he added 51 catches for 408 yards with seven total TDs. Mason averaged 5.2 yards per carry for the 49ers last season and should be a great short-yardage and goal-line back.
The questions on offense begin with whether McCarthy will develop into a quality starting QB this year. I think he may have some growing pains, but he’ll improve as the season progresses with the help of his great supporting cast led by his head coach, play caller, and QB guru Kevin O’Connell (the reigning NFL Coach of the Year), QB Coach Josh McCown, and so many talented players if they can stay healthy.
Can Thielen and Nailor adequately replace Addison for the first three weeks? I’d say yes.
Can the O-line stay healthy? Christian Darrisaw is coming off ACL surgery, but is on track to start the opener. Fries missed 12 games last season with a fractured tibia but started every game the previous year. Kelly missed seven games in 2024 with neck and knee injuries.
All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson’s hamstring has healed after missing a month of camp, but he needs to stay healthy.
The good news is that T.J. Hockenson is a much healthier player as he’s now a year removed from ACL surgery rehab that kept him out of the first seven games last season. Hockenson says he’s moving better than last season. He was a prime target for McCarthy in training camp, and I look for Hockenson to have another Pro Bowl season with over 100 catches.
Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) reacts after making a catch against the Denver Broncos in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports.
Defense
There are six new starters, including the third corner and third safety, who are virtual starters. The defensive line is all new with free agents and former Pro Bowlers Jonathan  Allen and Javon Hargrave as major upgrades over Jonathan Bullard and Jerry Tillery. Jalen Redmond brings youth and athleticism and should be an adequate replacement for the traded Harrison Phillips, but the team will miss Phillips’ experience and leadership (Allen can provide that element).
The linebackers — inside and outside — return and are terrific. This group includes Pro Bowlers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel (who is back at practice after missing most of camp), plus leading tackler Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace. I expect a breakout year for 2024 first-rounder Dallas Turner after an excellent camp. He had only three sacks in limited play last season.
The questions on defense come with the two new starters at corner — Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah, who join Pro Bowler Byron Murphy. Rodgers has never been a full-time starter, and Okudah has been injury-prone. Theo Jackson is the new third safety after Cam Bynum left in free agency.
Special Teams
There’s a new kick returner in speedy rookie Myles Price, who will be returning kickoffs and punts in the opener (replacing Ty Chandler and Brandon Powell in those roles). Â
 Kicker Will Reichard and punter Ryan Wright are back with Pro Bowl long snapper Andrew DePaola, and all three should be solid. The cover units will include many of the seven undrafted rookies who made the roster. They must play well and avoid costly penalties.
The coaching staff continuity is a big plus. O’Connell and Brian Flores are as good a pair running the offense and defense as with any NFL team. It’s huge for McCarthy to have O’Connell to work with after he took Kirk Cousins and Darnold to career-best performances over the last three years.
The Vikings face a significant challenge in the NFL’s top division, compounded by a tough non-division schedule against the AFC North’s top teams and the Super Bowl champion Eagles.
The Vikings’ goal is to win the NFC North and go on a playoff run. Two-time defending division champ Detroit and Green Bay—especially with the addition of Micah Parsons —are formidable, but the Lions have two new coordinators and lost two excellent starters off a great offensive line, and the Packers could be shaky at corner.
It starts on Monday night in Chicago.
This is a massive test for McCarthy in his first start to get the W in a division game on the road. The last prime time game he started was when he led Michigan to the national championship, so I don’t think the pressure will be too much for him.
Jul 29, 2025; Eagan, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) takes part in drills during the teams training camp at the Minnesota Vikings Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.
I see McCarthy as a future Pro Bowl QB who will be very good this season. He’ll likely have some growing pains, but he’ll get better as he plays more. He showed his strong arm in camp and worked on his touch passing. He has to be smart about running, which he does well, and is part of his game, but he must protect himself by sliding or running out of bounds.
In the opener, I expect a lot of quick throws from McCarthy to the backs, tight ends, and WRs. But there is sure to be a heavy dose of the run game after Jones had two good games against the Bears last season (a season-high 106 yards rushing and one TD in the Week 12 win at Soldier Field (30-27 in OT) and 86 rushing yards in the 30-12 Week 15 win in Minnesota as the Vikings swept the Bears.
The Vikings should frequently target Hockenson, who had a huge game in the overtime win with seven catches for 114 yards and a key 29-yard catch and run to set up the game-winning field goal. He also had five catches for 52 yards in the Week 15 win.
The O-line must protect McCarthy and open holes for the run game.
Of course, Jefferson must have at least 10 targets, and he will face double coverage on almost every play. Bears Pro Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson missed all of training camp with a groin injury, so we’ll see if he’s able to play. He helped hold Jefferson to two catches for 27 yards (with lots of safety help) in the first game last year, but Jefferson had better production in the second game with seven catches for 73 yards and one TD.
Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill need to do a good job against the Bears’ top pass rusher, Montez Sweat (12.5 sacks in a Pro Bowl season in 2023 before dropping to 5.5 sacks last season). Past Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett has joined the Bears, and he will be a challenge for the interior offensive line. I expect the Bears to try to have Jarrett test Jackson often in the rookie’s first start.
The Vikings must do a good job blocking a fine pair of linebackers — T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds.
On defense, the Vikings’ elite pass rushers must have success against the Bears’ offensive tackles Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones, who are beatable. Chicago’s pass blockers allowed Caleb Williams to be sacked a league-high 68 times last season.
They have upgraded their interior O-line with guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, and the Vikings need their interior D-linemen to put pressure on Williams, along with their edge players and good blitzers who DC Brian Flores will send in Cashman, Pace, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith, who is expected to play after missing most of camp with a personal health matter.
Bears Coach Ben Johnson will have Williams attack Rodgers and Okudah more than Murphy with fine receivers D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. The inside backers and safeties will have their hands full with two good tight ends in Cole Kmet and first-rounder Colston Loveland (who could be similarly used by Johnson as he utilized Pro Bowl TE Sam LaPorta in Detroit). A dominant pass rush will certainly help the secondary, and I expect that to be the case on Monday night against a QB in Williams who will sometimes hold the ball too long.Â
Jun 3, 2025; Lake Forest, IL, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson speaks during minicamp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images.
The Vikings’ run defense must stop D’Andre Swift, the Bears’ lead back. The Vikings ranked second against the run last season and should be a force again. Swift was held to 30 yards in the first game but had 79 rushing yards in the rematch last season. The D also must contain Williams when he tries to run (which they did better in the second game, holding him to three yards on the ground after he gained 33 yards in the first game).
Johnson likes to run trick plays, so Flores must have his defenders ready on that front.
The Vikings need to limit penalties, which is always an early-season concern, and win the turnover battle. The Vikings led the league with 33 takeaways last season, but they forced only one fumble and no interceptions by Williams in the two games last year. And McCarthy and the offense must protect the ball.
Winning the special teams battle can always swing a game. Price needs to protect the ball as a returner in his first game. And the seven undrafted free agents who made the Vikings roster must not let the bright lights of Monday Night Football make them jittery and force penalties and other mistakes.
Prediction
I always loved the regular season opener as a team exec and now in my media work. Training camp and preseason mercifully are over. The games count now, and the excitement builds during the week leading up to gameday. Â
I think the Vikings are a better team than last season, especially in the trenches. And they have a better roster than the Bears, who went 5-12 last season but have added several quality free agents, especially on the offensive line. The Bears lack the quality players needed to beat one of the NFL’s top teams, the Vikings.
With a relatively conservative approach on offense led by the running game and mostly quick passes, coupled with a dominant defensive performance, I see the Vikings winning 27-17.
Around the NFL Observations
There are several exciting games in Week 1 as the regular season commences. Here are my predictions on the biggest matchups:
1. The Super Bowl champion Eagles will roll over the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys in Philly on Thursday night.
2. I like the defending AFC champion Chiefs to win a close game over the Chargers in Brazil on Friday night. It will be a fun matchup of top QBs with Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert.
Dec 15, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) warms up prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images.
3. Green Bay takes on defending NFC North champion Detroit at Lambeau Field in the doubleheader game on Sunday. This is a tough one to call, as it may take Parsons a few weeks to get in game shape after not practicing in Cowboys training camp before the trade.
The Packers’ corners are shaky, which doesn’t bode well against Jared Goff and his excellent receivers. I think the Packers will pressure Goff enough to force some turnovers as the Lions’ offensive line is breaking in two new starters. Detroit also has two new coordinators—John Morton as OC replacing Ben Johnson, and Kelvin Sheppard, who replaces Aaron Glenn as DC. I’m picking Green Bay in a close game.Â
4. Baltimore is at Buffalo in the Sunday night opener. It’s a rematch of the exciting AFC divisional playoff won by the Bills 27-25 in Buffalo, with Ravens tight end Mark Andrews dropping a potential game-tying two-point attempt with less than two minutes to play. This matchup of top QBs Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will be exciting to watch, and I’ll pick the Bills at home.  Â
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year … More about Jeff Diamond
