Cowboys analytics roundup: Defensive reinforcements coming just in time
The bye week may have come at the perfect time for the Cowboys. Two straight losses has the season on the brink of being over, but two big trades at the deadline – plus the imminent return of both DeMarvion Overshown and Shavon Revel – offer a chance at a reset, defensively.
And, really, the Cowboys defense only needs to achieve âaverageâ play with the way their offense has been this season. So as we prepare for Monday nightâs game against the Raiders, letâs review where Dallas sits right now, and what that means for their chances to make a run.
Cowboys Efficiency at a GlanceDVOADVOA RankDVOA Rank Previous RankWeighted DVOAWeighted DVOA RankOffense8.4%11th8th8.3%11thDefense21.0%31st31st20.5%31stSpecial Teams2.2%13th9th2.0%13thOverall-10.5%21st20th-10.1%21stFrom a birdâs eye view, the story remains the same. The Cowboys have a really great offense thatâs being dragged down by a terrible defense. Dallas is 11th in offensive DVOA, just narrowly outside the top 10. Of the 10 teams ahead of them, all have a winning record and six of them sit in first place in their division. The Cowboys have had no such luck.
Special teams should jump out here, though. Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin are the best at their respective roles, unquestionably, but everything outside of them has been bad. Theyâre 27th in hidden points, which effectively measures the advantage gained by the opposing special teams unit, and they also have the fourth-most special teams penalties despite not playing this past week. Nick Sorensen badly needs to clean up his unit.
2025 NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-10, courtesy of rbsdm.com
The EPA-based team tiers reveal an almost comical divide between the upper and lower echelon of the NFL, and the Cowboys are right there in no manâs land. That beautifully reflects the nature of this team, as they have the offense of a contender but the defense of a team thatâs only contending for a top five draft pick.
In a way, though, this chart demonstrates why the Cowboys are capable of making a run still. If they can climb upwards on this chart and get level with, say, the Ravens and 49ers, theyâd be right in the thick of the playoff conversation. The hope is that the four players who will make their debut this week can facilitate that.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive EfficiencyGradeRankOffensive DVOA8.4%11thPass DVOA22.9%13thRun DVOA-0.2%8thEPA/Play0.1356thEPA/Dropback0.2088thEPA/Rush-0.0026thHow good has this offense been? Consider this: the Cowboys posted a -0.028 EPA/play in their previous two games and still rank sixth in total EPA/play for the year. Most of that negative figure came from the Broncos game, to be fair, but it still illustrates how good the unit has been.
The flip side of that equation, though, is that the Cowboys have had their two worst offensive performances most recently. Is this offense cooling off? Or did they just run into some bad matchups? Theyâll face some more top defenses in just a few weeks, so the answer to this question will be monumental in determining whether a run is possible, regardless of any defensive improvements.
Dak Prescottâs EfficiencyGradeRankQBR74.43rdEPA/play0.21010thCPOE3.610thEPA+CPOE Composite0.14610thSuccess Rate48.3%13thThe interesting thing about the Cowboysâ offensive decline these past two weeks is how itâs happened. Against Denver, Dak Prescott just had a bad game. He was hesitant on throws, inaccurate down the field, and just didnât look like himself. Against the Cardinals, though, he actually played well.
Prescott saw the second-highest pressure rate heâs seen all year, and he was sacked five times as a result. Prescott also had four passes dropped on the night; if those four were caught, and discounting intentional throwaways, Prescott wouldâve finished with an 80% completion rate. That may or may not offer fans solace, but itâs better than a world where Prescott had consecutive bad games.
Cowboys Offensive Line EfficiencyGradeRankPressure Rate31.0%10thAdjusted Sack Rate4.8%2ndPass Block Win Rate67%9thRun Block Win Rate72%11thAdjusted Line Yards4.785thAs mentioned, Prescott was under serious duress in the last game. Just under 75% of those pressures came from the offensive tackles. Notably, the Cowboys pulled Terence Steele during the game, putting Nate Thomas in at right tackle. Thomas didnât do well, giving up the most pressures on the night, but the move was a long time coming.
Steele has surrendered 25 pressures this year, 10th most in the league. Tyler Guyton is one of the few to have given up more, even though Guyton has played fewer snaps than Steele. Offensive line coach Conor Riley confirmed theyâre having a competition at right tackle, which makes this something to monitor.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive EfficiencyGradeRankDefensive DVOA21.0%31stPass Defense DVOA36.0%30thRun Defense DVOA3.7%29thPressure Rate36.3%10thPass Rush Win Rate37%16thRun Stop Win Rate32%6thEPA/Play0.17231stEPA/Dropback Allowed0.25230thEPA/Rush Allowed0.04929thBreaking news: the Cowboys are not last in any of the defensive metrics we track! Thank God for small miracles, right? Surely there wonât be any celebrations over this, but it does indicate one thing: theyâre at least trending in the right direction, albeit at a snailâs pace. Theyâve also been helped out by other defenses, mainly the Bengals, falling apart. One thing to note: Dan Quinnâs Commanders are last in EPA/dropback.
The hope is that four new players – at least new to this season – speed that up this week. Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have both been better against the run this season than anyone currently on the roster, while DeMarvion Overshown offers a major boost in both phases of the game.
Cowboys Pass CoverageTargetsCompletionsCompletion RatePasser Rating AllowedADOT When TargetedAir Yards AllowedYards After CatchTrevon Diggs151173.3%154.916.917244DaRon Bland453373.3%112.210.0242147Kaiir Elam392461.5%112.612.222391Reddy Steward232087.0%96.63.828137Trikweze Bridges201365.0%110.616.517229Malik Hooker44100.0%158.320.37240Donovan Wilson181477.8%102.811.412036Juanyeh Thomas33100.0%143.82.3720Markquese Bell10880.0%143.86.04659Jack Sanborn121191.7%107.37.26156Marist Liufau111090.9%146.24.53397Kenneth Murray342779.4%97.83.366188Shemar James222195.5%139.03.978144Damone Clark7571.4%84.24.71721Here is where the Cowboys should expect to see the biggest change once they come out of the bye. DaRon Bland has struggled this year, but heâs been better in the slot. Having Shavon Revel on the outside allows Bland to play inside, and also gives Trikweze Bridges a rest after being targeted early and often since becoming a starter.
The linebacker duo of Kenneth Murray and Shemar James has also been really bad against the pass. With Overshown and Wilson now in town, thereâs really no reason for either of them to play significant snaps on defense going forward, especially in passing downs. So take a good, long look at this table; if it doesnât start to change dramatically in the next few weeks, not much else will matter for the Cowboys.
