Agent’s Take: Target prices for 10 intriguing defensive players with expiring contracts, including Josh Sweat

Target prices for 10 offensive players with expiring contracts were covered in an article earlier in the week. The focus now turns to defense. 

Things will get started on March 10 when the exclusive negotiating rights NFL teams have had with their impending free agents ends. The agents of prospective unrestricted free agents are allowed to negotiate with teams beginning at noon ET on March 10 until 4 p.m. ET on March 12. Prospective UFAs who don’t have an agent can also negotiate with front office executives of teams. Players can’t sign deals with new clubs until the 2025 league year and free agency officially begin at 4 p.m. ET. A player’s ability to re-sign with his current club is allowed during the period. 

As a reminder, it was my responsibility while working on the agent side to create target or asking prices for the firm’s clients headed toward free agency regardless of whether I was the lead agent. Along those lines, I have set target prices with total contract value, overall guarantees, amount fully guaranteed at signing and first three years compensation (when applicable) for 10 intriguing defensive players who will be unrestricted free agents.

Players don’t necessarily sign for their target prices because free agency is a fluid process where adaptations must be made to changing market conditions. Some players are disappointed in free agency’s outcome because their market never develops for a variety of reasons (age, unrealistic contract demands, supply and demand at a playing position, etc.).

REMEMBER THE TARGET OR ASKING PRICES FOR THESE PLAYERS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND AREN’T NECESSARILY WHAT THEIR ACTUAL DEALS WILL BE.

Contract package: $45 million/2 years ($22.5 million per year)Overall guarantees: $45 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $23.5 millionMack reduced his 2024 compensation from $23.25 million to $19 million last March to remain with the Los Angeles Chargers. The 11-year NFL veteran ranked 12th among edge rushers in Pro Football Focus’ wins above replacement metric last season. He was also named to his ninth Pro Bowl. Although Mack just turned 34, his performance doesn’t warrant another salary reduction. Concerns about age will likely limit Mack to a shorter-term deal.

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Tyler Sullivan

Contract package: $70 million/3 years ($23,333,333 per year)Overall guarantees: $50 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $40 millionWilliams had five sacks and a career-high 40 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) according to Pro Football Focus last season in a Philadelphia Eagles interior defensive line rotation with Pro Bowler Jalen Carter and 2022 first-round pick Jordan Davis. His 47.8% defensive playtime was also a career high.

The 40 pressures were four more than Williams had in the previous two seasons combined. Williams ranked fourth among NFL interior defensive linemen in PFF’s pass-rush win-rate metric (17.5%). 

There are currently 14 interior defensive linemen with contracts averaging $20 million per year or more. Getting to this territory should be Williams’ objective. The latest data point is the Dallas Cowboys avoiding a $25.133 million franchise tag with Osa Odighizuwa by signing him to a four-year, $80 million contract, averaging $20 million per year. The deal contains $52 million in guarantees where $39 million is fully guaranteed at signing.

Contract package: $95 million/4 years ($23.75 million per year)Overall guarantees: $75 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $52.5 millionSweat took a $6 million pay cut from the three-year, $40 million contract extension, averaging $13,333,333 per year, he signed in 2021. Scheduled to make $16 million in 2024, Sweat lowered his salary to $10 million where $9.5 million was fully guaranteed with the opportunity to earn as much as $13 million total through incentives. 

Sweat led the Eagles with eight sacks last season. He made a great closing statement with 2.5 sacks and tied his season high with seven quarterback pressures, according to PFF, in Philadelphia’s 40-22 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. It’s surely going to take more than the three-year, $51.1 million deal, averaging $17,033,333 per year and worth a maximum of $57.1 million thanks to incentives and salary escalators, the Eagles gave edge rusher Bryce Huff last March as a free agent to keep Sweat in Philadelphia.

Contract package: $80 million/4 years ($20 million per year)Overall guarantees: $42.5 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $42.5 millionThe Miami Dolphins are letting Holland hit the open market rather than placing an $18.601 million franchise tag on him. The 25-year-old can play in the box as well as deep. Holland isn’t a ball hawk. He didn’t pick off any passes in 2024 and only has five interceptions in his four NFL seasons.

David Mulugheta, Holland’s agent, has his finger on the pulse of the safety market. He did a three-year, $54 million extension, averaging $18 million per year, for Budda Baker with the Arizona Cardinals. He made Antoine Winfield Jr., who was designated as a franchise player by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back last May with a four-year, $84.1 million contract, averaging $21.025 million per year. Mulugheta also had the top safety contract in 2024 free agency. It was Xavier McKinney’s four-year, $67 million deal worth up $68 million through incentives and salary escalators with the Green Bay Packers. Mulugheta will be looking to put Holland in this salary stratosphere.

Contract package: $84 million/4 years ($21 million per year)Overall guarantees: $57.5 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $45.5 millionThere’s no better time to have a career year than in a contract year. That’s exactly what Murphy did in 2024. Murphy’s six interceptions tied for the NFL lead among cornerbacks. He was rewarded with his first Pro Bowl berth because of his efforts. 

The top deals for cornerbacks whose contracts expired after the 2023 season went to L’Jarius Sneed and Jaylon Johnson, who were designated as franchise players, respectively, by the Chiefs and the Chicago Bears. Sneed signed a four-year, $76.4 million contract, averaging $19.1 million per year with $55 million in guarantees, in connection with his trade from the Chiefs to the Tennessee Titans. Out of the $55 million, $44 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Johnson got $76 million over four years to average $19 million per year from the Bears with $54.4 million of guarantees, which included $43.8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Quite frankly, those deals were a little disappointing considering the average for using a franchise tag on Sneed and Johnson twice in a row would have been a little more than $21.75 million per year. It’s about $1 million per year less than the two-tag average by adjusting Sneed and Johnson’s contract for the 9.32% increase in the salary cap this year.

Contract package: $60 million/3 years ($20 million per year)Overall guarantees: $43 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $43 millionAn ill-convinced 90-day holdout ended seven weeks into the 2024 season when the New York Jets, who acquired Reddick from the Eagles for a conditional 2026 third-down pick in early April, inserted $5,341,628 of performance bonuses into his contract. Reddick’s late start to the season was because of his dissatisfaction with the three-year, $45 million contract (worth up to $46.5 million through incentives and salary escalators) he received from the Eagles during 2022 free agency. 

Reddick had been one of the NFL’s best pass rushers in recent years prior to his holdout. He was coming off four straight seasons with double-digit sacks, including a career-high 16 in 2022. That Reddick didn’t show up in 2024. The 30-year-old had one sack in the 10 games he played after ending his holdout. Reddick’s path to a big payday is NFL teams giving him a mulligan for his 2024 performance.

Contract package: $10 million/1 year (worth up to $11.5 million with incentives)Overall guarantees: $10 million ($7.5 million as signing bonus with up to four voiding/dummy years for salary cap purposes if necessary)Greenlaw didn’t make his 2024 season debut until Week 15 because of a fluke injury in Super Bowl LVIII. He tore his left Achilles while running onto the field for a San Francisco 49ers defensive series early in the second quarter. 

Greenlaw looked great in his return to action. The problem was left knee soreness sidelined Greenlaw during the third quarter of his return game. A calf injury the following week landed Greenlaw on injured reserve. Greenlaw was on the field for just 34 defensive snaps last season. 

Since teams may be reluctant to make a substantial long-term commitment because of durability concerns, Greenlaw may be better off taking a one-year deal. The Achilles wasn’t the only injury that caused Greenlaw to miss a significant amount of time. He was limited to three games in 2021 because of a groin injury. Bobby Wagner, who will be 35 in June, getting $9 million for one year (worth a maximum of $9.5 million through incentives) with $8 million fully guaranteed to remain with the Washington Commanders should give Greenlaw some comfort that being 28 in 2026 won’t be too old to cash in.

Contract package: $64 million/4 years ($16 million per year)Overall guarantees: $35 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $35 millionReid joined the Chiefs in 2022 free agency on a three-year, $31.5 million contract with $20.485 million fully guaranteed. The Chiefs seemingly planned for Reid’s departure by drafting Jaden Hicks in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hicks’ playtime increased dramatically as the season progressed. 

Budda Baker’s $18 million-per-year extension is surely on Reid’s radar screen. That deal could be out of reach. The four-year, $58 million contract, averaging $14.5 million, Kyle Dugger signed with the Patriots last April as a transition player could have some relevance. Dugger has $32.5 million in guarantees, of which $29.75 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Contract package: $60 million/4 years ($15 million per year)Overall guarantees: $40 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $32.5 millionReed was arguably the Jets’ most consistent cornerback in 2024 playing opposite two-time first-team All-Pro Sauce Gardner, who had a down year by his standards. The more teams that are comfortable Reed can successfully make the transition from a No. 2 cornerback to matching up with opposing top wide receivers, the better off Reed will be financially. The five-year, $88.884 million extension, averaging $17,776,800 per year with $43,268,889 of guarantees, Deommodore Lenoir received from the 49ers in November surely caught Reed’s attention.

Contract package: $43.5 million/3 years ($14.5 million per year)Overall guarantees: $30 millionFully guaranteed at signing: $30 millionJones bounced around in 2024. The Los Angeles Rams surprisingly dealt him and a conditional 2026 sixth-round pick to the Titans in the preseason for a 2026 fifth-round pick. Jones was on the move again during the latter part of October. The Seattle Seahawks acquired Jones from the Titans in exchange for linebacker Jerome Baker and a 2025 fourth-round pick. 

Jones made a big impact in Seattle by shoring up a porous run defense. Prior to Jones’ arrival, the Seahawks ranked 29th in the NFL with 148.4 rushing yards allowed per game. It dropped to 96.2 yards per game to rank seventh over the final 10 weeks of the season with Jones in the lineup.

Jones is recovering from offseason knee surgery that Seahawks general manager John Schneider doesn’t think is a big deal. Zack Braun just got the second biggest free agent off-ball linebacker contract under the 2020 NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. He’s staying with the Eagles on a three-year deal reportedly for $51 million that averages $17 million per year with $34 million in guarantees. Baun’s deal won’t be eclipsed in free agency. The Buffalo Bills further defined the 2025 linebacker market with Terrel Bernard’s four-year extension reportedly worth $50 million for a $12.5 million average per year with $25.2 million in guarantees.

Jones, who is 25, shouldn’t sign for more than three years. A three-year deal would best position Jones for the opportunity to sign a second lucrative veteran contract, which is a rarity for off-ball linebackers, in either 2027 or 2028.