Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko prediction, pick: Can champ retain in trilogy rematch?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 306 co-main event between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko (ESPN+ pay-per-view).

Alexa Grasso UFC 306 preview

Alexa Grasso

Staple info:

Record: (16-3-1 MMA, 8-3-1 UFC)
Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
Last fight: Draw with Valentina Shevchenko (Sept. 16, 2023)
Camp: Lobo Gym (Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC flyweight champion

+ Regional MMA title

+ Multiple grappling accolades

+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt

+ 4 KO victories

+ 2 submission wins

+ 5 first-round finishes

+ Consistent pace and pressure

^ High-volume striker

+ Solid footwork

+ Puts together punches well

^ Punctuates with accurate kicks

+ Effective in the clinch

^ Good application of over/underhooks

+ Strikes well off the breaks

+ Improved transitional grappling

+/- 1-1-1 against UFC-level southpaws

Valentina Shevchenko UFC 306 preview

Valentina Shevchenko

Staple info:

Record: (23-4-1 MMA, 12-3-1 UFC)
Height: 5’5″ Age: 36 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
Last fight: Draw with Alexa Grasso (Sept. 16, 2023)
Camp: Team Shevchenko/Tiger Muay Thai (Las Vegas)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/Muay Thai
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC flyweight champion

+ 17x muay Thai and K-1 championships

+ 9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)

+ Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)

+ 6 KO victories

+ 7 submission wins

+ 6 first-round finishes

+ KO power

+ Excellent footwork

^ Seldom out of position

+ Accurate check hook and counter cross

+ Hard knees, elbows and kicks

+ Crafty clinch game

^ Good trips and tosses

+ Strong positional grappler

^ Prefers passing to crucifix

+/- 1-1-1 in MMA rematches

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko point of interest: Striking the third time around

Sep 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alexa Grasso (red gloves) fights Valentina Shevchenko (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 306 features a championship trilogy fight between [autotag]Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.

Although everyone remembers that back-take sequence that ended their first meeting back at UFC 285, only a select few seem to remember how much success Grasso was having in the striking department before round four.

Despite traditionally fighting from orthodox and only switching stances when occasionally feeling in stride, Grasso decided to change things up on the then-champion by primarily operating out of the southpaw stance. As I always say in my analysis, no one hates fighting southpaws more than southpaws themselves.

The reason for this is that most southpaws tend to predicate their games around orthodox fighters given their natural abundance at fight gyms. So, when a southpaw gets paired up with a fellow lefty, they often find themselves awkwardly navigating and interpreting space – making striking lanes for left crosses and lead hands extra potent.

Steering clear of analysis arguing about crosses v check hooks, I’ll just add a note that I still don’t see brought up much but I preach all the time as a southpaw: SP v. SP matchups make left cross lanes stupidly potent (especially w/a lead hand presence) pic.twitter.com/gbwTLF6GCx

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 14, 2023

Even though Shevchenkos’s sister and longtime training partner, Antonina Shevchenko, is also a southpaw, the former flyweight champion showed that she, too, was not impervious to this stylistic trope. That said, Shevchenko was also able to find success in the striking department with her lead hand – something that was on full display in their second outing.

Laying the foundation with a solid jab, Shevchenko was able to eventually get a beat on her classic counters once establishing her range and rhythm. From check hooks to counter crosses, Shevchenko did a decent job of keeping Grasso honest in exchanges.

Still, I would’ve liked to have seen more kicks from Shevchenko in their rematch.

Valentina Shevchenko capitalizing on previous bodywork, as well as Eye’s dipping propensities, to land a flush head kick knockout back at UFC 238. #UFC261 pic.twitter.com/LtNXOUO9k3

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 23, 2021

Despite Grasso shutting down Shevchenko’s favored body kick from the open stance, leg kicks are more than available for the former champion anytime her Mexican counterpart operates from orthodox. Unfortunately for Shevchenko, she – oddly enough – limited herself to roughly half of the leg kicks thrown against more potent takedown artists like Taila Santos in both bouts with Grasso.

Should that trend remain intact for this trilogy fight, then Shevchenko will need to be much more active with her lead hand to make up for it. Otherwise, Grasso appears to be getting more and more comfortable with crowing Shevchenko from southpaw as time goes on.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering how both fights ended, I suspect that the grappling entanglements will still be a crucial lynchpin in this contest.

I’m not sure if Shevchenko will be spinning as liberally this time around, but that doesn’t mean she won’t take things to the floor herself.

Aside from not being shy about incorporating clinch throws and tosses during her muay Thai days, Shevchenko has also developed a taste for level-changing takedowns in MMA (at least since the latter end of her championship run). Even when wrestling might not be the most advisable adjustment, Shevchenko seems to have it equipped as a go-to option whenever she’s looking to get one back.

In Shevchenko’s defense, she did have her best moments in this series with Grasso on the floor, securing everything from rear mounts to crucifix positions.

However, it was Grasso who displayed improved grappling IQ and urgency to escape potential fight-ending positions and get back to her feet. Grasso also showed a sharp, opportunistic transition game to finish both fights from back mounts, so I’ll be curious if she takes more initiative regarding trying to replicate these situations.

If Grasso is unable to hit offensive or reactive takedowns, then I’m not sure she’ll be able to easily get the jump on Shevchenko in that department. And if Grasso can’t take down the former champion, then that means she’ll likely get stuck in Shevchenko’s wheelhouse of the clinch.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1385454746689937410

But given Shevchneko’s past mistakes in this position, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a more gunshy “Bullet” this time around.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight closer to pick’em odds, money is steadily trickling in on the sitting champion, listing Grasso -138 and Shevchenko +110 via FanDuel.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko prediction, pick

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight closer to a pick’em, money is steadily trickling in on the sitting champion, listing Grasso -138 and Shevchenko +110 via FanDuel.

Although I can understand MMA gamblers backing the younger, more hyped fighter at the betting window, I still think that Grasso and Shevchenko’s style makes for tight, competitive affairs.

Whether we’re talking about striking or grappling, Shevchenko has shown the skills needed to defeat a fighter like Grasso. The problem, however, has been the fact that Shevchenko has had a knack for shooting herself in the foot.

Whether we’re talking about the final rounds in this series or the one with Amanda Nunes up at bantamweight, Shevchenko has had a bad habit of sacrificing crucial positions when it counts the most.

Grasso, on the other hand, has shown that she can both adjust in-fight and progress fight-to-fight, making me like her chances more.

I’ve been a longtime fan of Shevchenko and seldom pick against her, but I’ll take Grasso to, once again, edge out the scorecards via the bigger offensive moments.

Prediction: Grasso by decision

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, champ Grasso and former champ Shevchenko are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately midnight ET. The main card airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 306.

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