Analyzing Every NHL Team in the Western Conference Wild-Card Race
Analyzing Every NHL Team in the Western Conference Wild-Card Race0 of 5
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We are in the stretch run of the 2023-24 NHL regular season, and the playoff races are heating up.
While the Eastern Conference has a hodgepodge of teams fighting it out for two spots, the Western Conference race stands out a bit more, mainly because of who is involved in it.
In the first wild-card spot, you have an extremely surprising and underrated team in the Nashville Predators who have exceeded most expectations under first-year head coach Andrew Brunette.
Just behind them is a team that isn’t getting much attention as a bubble playoff side: the Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights. They are very much on the bubble and are going to have to hold off a couple of others to get a chance to defend their title.
So, let’s take a team-by-team look at the teams still in that wild-card race and what they need to do to secure a playoff spot.
In the 2022-23 season, 95 points was the cut-off for a wild-card spot.
So, we are going to look at each team’s current pace, what it would take for the bubble teams to reach the current cut-off line and what it would take for them to reach 95 points.
Nashville Predators1 of 5
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Current record: 40-25-4 (84 points)
Current standing: First wild-card spot
Current point pace: 99.8 points
Record needed for 95 points: 5-7-1
After missing the playoffs entirely a year ago and looking like a team that was in need of a complete rebuild, the Predators are now in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot thanks to an incredible second-half surge that has seen them go 14-2-2 since the start of February.
Collecting just 11 out of a possible 26 points over the remainder of the season would get them to the 95-point mark.
They have put themselves in a great spot and are in the best possible position of any of the wild-card contenders.
The most impressive part of their turnaround this year is that they have done it while getting a pretty ordinary season from starting goalie Juuse Saros.
In recent years, Nashville has needed him to play at a near super-human level just to keep the team in the race. He has been a step below his normal level of play this season, though, but it hasn’t stopped the Predators.
Big years from Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi, as well as the offseason additions of Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist, have been the biggest game-changers here.
Vegas Golden Knights2 of 5
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Current record: 36-25-7 (79 points)
Current standing: Second wild-card spot
Current point pace: 95.2 points
Record needed for 95 points: 7-6-1
Many in the NHL have spent so much time discussing the exploitation of the LTIR rules and their trade-deadline acquisitions that we have kind of ignored the fact that the Stanley Cup champions are far from a lock to make the playoffs.
The Vegas Golden Knights are very much on the bubble and have, quite honestly, been a bad team far more often than they have been good this season.
Since starting the season 11-0-1, they have gone just 25-25-6 in the 56 games since then with some ordinary underlying numbers.
In their defense, injuries have played a big part in that. Jack Eichel, William Karlsson and Shea Theodore have all missed significant time, Mark Stone is out long-term, and even trade-deadline addition Tomáš Hertl is still out of the lineup.
Those injury situations allowed them to get the salary-cap flexibility to make the trades for Hertl, Anthony Mantha and Noah Hanifin. And given where they are in the standings, they needed every single one of them.
If the Golden Knights get into the playoffs and stay healthy, they will be a formidable team and one of the most dangerous No. 8 seeds you could imagine.
However, that is a lot of “ifs,” and they are not quite in the playoffs. At least not just yet, especially with a 5-10-1 record over their past 16 games that is leaving the door open for the three teams behind them.
Minnesota Wild3 of 5
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Current record: 34-28-8 (76 points)
Current standing: Ninth place in Western Conference
Current point pace: 89.0 points
Record needed to jump ahead of Vegas pace (96 points): 9-2-1
The Wild find themselves one point ahead of St. Louis, but they are tied in terms of points percentage given that the Blues still have a game in hand.
This has been a difficult and disappointing season in some ways for the Wild.
They were a good playoff team a year ago, but a lot of that was the result of goaltenders Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury carrying the weight and masking a number of flaws.
Given the salary-cap situation that is still being impacted by the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts—it will be for another year next season—there are going to be flaws. This season, the goaltending hasn’t always been there to cover it.
However, because the Wild still have some high-end players and a couple of high-profile rookies in Brock Faber and Marco Rossi, they have managed to hang around in the playoff race.
They have one game remaining against St. Louis and two against Vegas that will be pivotal.
St. Louis Blues4 of 5
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Current record: 36-30-3 (75 points)
Current standing: Tenth place in Western Conference
Current point pace: 89.0 points
Record needed to jump ahead of Vegas pace (96 points): 10-2-1
The Blues have really started to turn their season around after the coaching change that saw Drew Bannister take over for Craig Berube. They have at least played at something close to a playoff pace (23-16-2), while Vegas’ late-season slump has helped narrow the gap.
By points percentage, St. Louis is tied with the Minnesota Wild and has won four of its past five games going into play on Thursday.
Holding onto forward Pavel Buchnevich at the trade deadline helps the playoff push here, and the Blues can make up some ground over the next week with three consecutive games against teams they are competing with in the wild-card race: Minnesota, Vegas and Calgary.
If they can find a way to sweep those three contests, they could position themselves for a frantic finish. But one loss in any of them might be enough to knock them out of it.
The Blues have no room for error.
Calgary Flames5 of 5
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Current record: 33-30-5 (71 points)
Current standing: Eleventh place in Western Conference
Current point pace: 85.6 points
Record needed to jump ahead of Vegas pace (96 points): 12-2-0
The Flames are facing the longest odds here, not only because they traded off three key players (Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin) but they also have no margin for error and only one remaining head-to-head game with any of the other contenders (St. Louis).
But, they are still in the race, which is really saying something given how disappointing the season has been and all of the trades they had to make.
The key to this season for Calgary was getting bounce-back seasons from Jonathan Huberdeau and Jacob Markstrom.
They got one from the latter but not the former, at least not until recently.
The Flames still have something to play for and have improved in recent weeks, but it might be a case of too little, too late.
