Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bay Hill’s final 4 holes will separate best from the rest

The PGA Tour returns to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the fourth Signature Event of the 2024 Season.

This week’s field is loaded, but so is the golf course, which is loaded with trouble.

Water comes into play on nine holes, and if the wind picks it up, it turns Bay Hill into a U.S. Open-like atmosphere.

Since 2020, only one winner has finished double-digits under par. Bryson DeChambeau did so in 2021, shooting 11-under for the week to win by one.

Hence, mitigating mistakes is paramount. But to do that, players must find the fairway off the tee to succeed at Arnie’s Place.

“I think there’s a premium on driving the golf ball in the fairway, and I think you have to play really smart around this place,” Patrick Cantlay said Tuesday.

“There are some really tricky hole locations, and if you get out of position, it’s really important to get the ball to the correct spot if you want to have a chance at scoring. It’s definitely one of the harder stops on Tour.”

With temperatures in the mid-80s all week and wind gusts swirling up to 20-25 miles per hour, this course will only get more challenging as the championship wears on.

That should entertain golf fans everywhere.

Knowing this, let’s explore the final four holes at Bay Hill, which will play a pivotal role in determining the winner:

Hole 15 – Par 4, 467 Yards

Rory McIlroy expresses frustration after hitting his tee-shot on the 15th hole at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

After Bay Hill kicks players in the mouth for 14 holes, you arrive at the difficult par-4 15th gasping for air. But the 15th offers little reprieve—much like the rest of the golf course.

Last year, this dogleg right par-4 ranked as the third most challenging hole during the tournament. It requires a 250-yard carry over a bunker at the corner of the dogleg, as the fairway narrows significantly beyond the trap.

At the 300-yard mark off the tee, the fairway is only 21 yards wide, leaving very little room for error. Magnolia trees on either side make the target look smaller than it appears, making this one of the most difficult driving holes on the property.

Players will then face a second shot into a green protected by three sand traps.

Two guard the front of the green, while the third sits to the back and left.

The putting surface is somewhat tricky. It generally slopes from back to front, but it has subtle mounds on the front left and front right that will cause fits. A significant drop off to the left of the green—between the two bunkers—will also collect any pulled tee-shot. The left side of this green generally slopes in that direction as well.

Anyone making a four here will leave the 15th satisfied.

Hole 16 – Par 5, 511 Yards

Adam Scott takes a drop after hitting it into the water at the par-5 16th hole during the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour via Getty Images

During the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, more players made birdie at the par-5 16th than not. This hole is one of the easiest on the PGA Tour, as it played nearly a half-stroke under par last year.

But weirdly, this hole creates more pressure for the player.

Tour pros expect to make a birdie-four here, which heightens the tension late in the round, especially down the stretch on Sunday. Should they fail to make birdie here, they’re essentially losing a stroke to the rest of the field.

The 16th at Bay Hill doglegs to the right, but not as severely as the tough par-4 15th.

Two bunkers sit on either side of the fairway roughly 300 yards from the teeing ground, and only the big bombers can clear them. To carry the trap on the right, a 345-yard carry is required.

But finding this fairway is critical to making birdie here. It’s about 34 yards wide at the 300-yard mark, an expansive fairway by Bay Hill standards.

Then, players will have a mid-to-long iron into a green protected by three sand traps and water.

The water comes into play much more so on the left side, as a pond will collect anything pulled. But a stream that flows into that pond runs about 25 yards short of the green. Any mishit short will find the water, too.

Hole 17 – Par 3, 221 Yards

The 17th hole at Bay Hill.

Photo by Chris Condon/PGA Tour

The penultimate hole at Arnie’s Place is an absolute brute.

A massive ‘beach bunker’ protects this kidney-shaped green, while a stream gently meanders around the back right portion of it.

The pond in front of the large bunker should not come into play, although a terrible mishit could end up there.

Two other sand traps sit beside this green: one to the front left, and one to the back left.

But the great thing about this gorgeous hole is that players tee off from an elevated tee, giving them an incredible view of this par-3. It also serves as an advantage, as the player can likely hit one club down instead of mustering the full 220-yard shot.

Nevertheless, whoever finds this green off the tee will be pleased.

The green primarily slopes from back to front, towards the beach bunker, and also towards the front left portion of the green.

Hole 18 – Par 4, 458 Yards

The 18th hole at Bay Hill.

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

No hole carries more prestige at Bay Hill than its finisher, the tough par-4 18th.

Surely, you have seen the highlights of Tiger Woods eliciting massive fist-pumps on this boomerang-shaped green.

But this hole has plenty more to it than its putting surface, which slopes severely towards the pond it is shaped around.

The tee shot is pretty straightforward.

Out-of-bounds lurks down the left side, but a player will only re-load if they really pull their tee shot.

Thick, gnarly rough runs down both sides of the fairway. The large pond that sits by the green comes into play 330 yards from the tee box on the right-hand side, but players rarely reach the water with their drives.

Like most holes at Bay Hill, finding the fairway is crucial here. A lay-up to the left will likely ensue if a player misses it. The rough that lines this fairway will not allow a shot to carry the water onto the green.

The second shot cannot be missed short and right, or it will find the water or perhaps even the rocks that line this green.

Three sand traps protect this green’s left and back sides, forcing the player to pick a narrow target.

It is an incredible finishing hole, one that can yield birdies. But double bogeys also lurk, making it one of the more entertaining closing holes on the PGA Tour.

Tiger Woods celebrates after making birdie at the 18th hole to win the 2008 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.