B/R Staff: Making the Case for 10 Wild-Card NBA Title Contenders

Bleacher Report NBA StaffAugust 25, 2024B/R Staff: Making the Case for 10 Wild-Card NBA Title Contenders0 of 10

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Parity was already becoming a hallmark of the modern NBA, and the league’s new collective bargaining agreement will continue that trend.

The talent pool is deep, and it’s spread pretty well throughout all 30 teams. Several have multiple bona fide stars. There are a dozen or so organizations that could emerge from this campaign as the champions without causing much of a surprise.

Here, we’re going to stretch that idea even further by looking at some wild-card contenders, which we’ll define as teams outside the top 10 in FanDuel’s latest title odds.

Some things would have to break right. Some players would have to break out. But in the right set of circumstances, the 10 teams below could crash the contenders’ tier.

Los Angeles Clippers1 of 10

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After half a decade of perennially high expectations, everyone is off the Los Angeles Clippers. And it’s not hard to see why. They lost Paul George to the Philadelphia 76ers. Since they were over the salary cap with or without him, there weren’t really options for a meaningful replacement.

Instead, L.A. had to cobble together a supporting cast for Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with incumbents, minimum salaries and cap exceptions. And it’s certainly tougher to buy the new roster as a title contender.

But Kawhi is still around. When he’s healthy, he can bring the impact of a top-five to -10 player. Harden, in the absence of George, might be able to reignite some of the offensive explosiveness that once accompanied him to the Houston Rockets, Brooklyn Nets and 76ers. He was solid for the Clippers last season, but a few more scoring opportunities could put him back into All-Star consideration.

And while having three stars is nice, the new collective bargaining agreement and its various penalties for exceeding the cap could make “two stars and depth” a more viable model. L.A. still has a bunch of gritty defenders to take the thankless tasks off Kawhi and Harden’s plates. They, in turn, could deliver legacy-sealing seasons by pushing the Clippers into contention.

—Andy Bailey

Cleveland Cavaliers2 of 10

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Recency bias is playing too much of a role in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ championship odds. Last year saw them thrust into an existential crisis amid stop-and-start availability from every member of the Big Four aside from Jarrett Allen. Theirs was a tale of, like, three to five different seasons. That choppiness made it difficult to build synergy and momentum and marry core principles and styles.

At the same time, constant exigency forced self-discovery. The Cavs have a firmer understanding of their best staggered couplings and the benefits of detaching Allen and Mobley from one another. By the end of the year, they also had a better grasp of what their offense can look like when Mobley is taking and making (some) threes. This is all information new head coach Kenny Atkinson can use to optimize a wildly talented, albeit not perfectly fitting, nucleus.

People will still glom onto the Big Four’s performance last season. Cleveland barely won the minutes played by Allen, Mobley, Darius Garland, and Donovan Mitchell. But the sample is much smaller (819 possessions) compared to 2022-23, when the quartet posted a net rating of 10.2 through 1,729 possessions.

Next year’s Cavs are better and deeper than its opening-year iteration. There’s no way a team with four All-Star types all in or approaching their primes peaked during their inaugural season. And if the wildly flawed version of Cleveland managed to squeak out 48 victories and a playoff-series win last year, imagine what a healthier, more talented and better optimized version of that team can do.

—Dan Favale

Orlando Magic3 of 10

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Somehow, someway, the Orlando Magic took last year’s second-ranked defense and made it…more terrifying.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope turned in a legitimate All-Defensive case during the 2023-24 campaign as the Denver Nuggets’ most important perimeter stopper. He will now (presumably) enter a core lineup that features Jalen Suggs.

Ahem: Holy crap.

Orlando still has a long way to go on offense. It ranked 22nd in points scored per possession, including 21st in the half-court. KCP will help open the floor as a quality spacer, but the Magic need a more dynamic off-the-dribble shot-maker and passer to really ratchet up their championship equity.

It is somewhat disappointing that they opted against acquiring that player over the offseason when they had the cap space and trade assets to set off fireworks. But that heavy-heartedness speaks to the sky-high opinion of what Orlando already has in place.

To that end, the Magic’s offensive solve could already be on the roster. Suggs, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are all young enough to get better. Plus, the cool thing about not trading your best assets is Orlando will continue to have them. This is a team to watch around the deadline—not just because they can make a big splash, but because their defense and incumbent talent are good enough that a smaller splash could end up making a world’s worth of difference.

—Dan Favale

San Antonio Spurs4 of 10

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Yeah, this is way ahead of schedule. Victor Wembanyama is just entering his second season. He’s only 20 years old. And the San Antonio Spurs were a dreadful 22-60 in 2023-24.

It’s hard to imagine that record wasn’t reached, at least in part, on purpose, though. San Antonio could still very easily consider itself in “asset accumulation” mode last season. Losses and better odds in the draft lottery were valuable. That may be why the Spurs relied so little on the lineup combinations that were clearly working.

Just playing Wemby with an actual point guard in Tre Jones (instead of the “Jeremy Sochan is a 1” experiment) yielded a plus-5.2 net rating. Add Devin Vassell to the mix, and they were really cooking. When Wembanyama, Jones and Vassell were all on the floor, San Antonio was plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions.

Adding Chris Paul, even at 39 years old, now makes those “Wemby with a real point guard” lineups a lot harder to avoid. In fact, with CP3 and Jones both around, most or all of Wemby’s minutes should be in more traditional alignments. And that alone should make San Antonio a lot more competitive.

He already played at an All-NBA level as a rookie. If he nudges closer to the league’s top 10 (seems reasonable, given his age), his team might even be forced to cash in some of its massive asset stash to pair another star with him.

Realistically, the Spurs are still a few years away from meaningful contention, but there’s a world in which they skip some steps in 2024-25.

—Andy Bailey

Memphis Grizzlies5 of 10

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The Memphis Grizzlies are tied for the 11th-best title odds, making them less of a long shot than several of the teams here. They’ve earned that status with a pair of 50-win seasons prior to 2023-24’s injury-hit gap year.

Assuming Ja Morant is recovered from surgery to repair a torn labrum, Marcus Smart is a full go in training camp and whatever hex befell the rest of the roster last year is lifted, there’s no reason the Grizz can’t return to their previous fringe-contending form.

Even the misfortune they suffered last year came with silver linings. With so many players out, Jaren Jackson Jr. dramatically scaled up his individual shot creation. Desmond Bane got more reps as a ball-handling playmaker. Pressed into duty, youngsters GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. flashed legitimate rotation-worthy play.

First-year center Zach Edey dominated his lone Summer League appearance and could really give Memphis a boost if he replicates the rugged toughness, screen-setting and offensive rebounding those aforementioned 50-win teams got from Steven Adams—with the added bonus of unleashing Jackson as a roving power forward. Last time he filled that role, Triple-J won Defensive Player of the Year.

Memphis was on a contending trajectory before coming completely undone last season. Still young, still talented and now featuring key players who upgraded their games last season, expect it to pick up where it left off.

—Grant Hughes

Miami Heat6 of 10

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Because Heat Culture. Are we done here?

OK, maybe we need a little more justification than that. But it’s not the worst idea to blindly trust Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and whatever toughness-injecting, postseason grit-amplifying serum the Heat distribute in their post-practice smoothies.

These guys have a history of figuring out how to defy odds and beat absolutely anyone in a playoff series. Picking them to overperform has historically been a wise move.

Miami made the 2020 Finals as a fifth seed, came within a front-rimmed Jimmy Butler three of making the Finals again in 2022 and, most impressively, bullied its way to the 2023 Finals via the Play-In.

Butler’s durability is a concern, as is last year’s No. 21 ranking in offensive efficiency. But full seasons from Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, growth from Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jović and the already intriguing Summer League emergence of rookie Kel’el Ware could lighten the load on Butler while shoring up Miami’s attack.

Bam Adebayo is a world-class defensive anchor with loads of big-game experience, and Erik Spoelstra is arguably the best coach in the game. The more you think about it, the more you find reasons beyond Heat Culture to believe Miami can crash another Finals party.

—Grant Hughes

Golden State Warriors7 of 10

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The Golden State Warriors broke up the Splash Brothers, sending Klay Thompson via sign-and-trade to the Dallas Mavericks, which was difficult to see given they’re the best shooting backcourt in NBA history. But it was probably a year or two late, as Thompson isn’t quite the same player he was before multiple leg injuries (especially on defense).

The Warriors have pivoted from one of the highest payroll teams in the league to just barely in the luxury tax while improving with the additions of De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson. The team got deeper, and if anyone watched the Olympics, it still has one of the most lethal basketball players in the world.

Should Golden State be listed as the favorite? No, because the team has struggled to dominate the Western Conference the last few years. But with a healthy Andrew Wiggins, emerging young players like Brandin Podziemski and Tracy Jackson-Davis, and the ultimate closer in the league, put some respect on the Warriors.

—Eric Pincus

Los Angeles Lakers8 of 10

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The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t do anything this offseason outside of drafting Dalton Knecht (No. 17) and Bronny James (No. 55). The team wasn’t bad last year, but L.A. needed to get through the play-in tournament to draw the Denver Nuggets (its worst possible matchup) in the first round.

But the Lakers were competitive in every game against Denver, who is arguably worse off this year after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Orlando Magic in free agency. L.A. also (potentially) upgraded at coach with JJ Redick replacing Darvin Ham. That’s debatable, as Redick has zero NBA coaching experience, though the Lakers had clearly tuned out Ham and needed a change.

It’s asking a lot for Redick to be a stellar in-game coach as a rookie, but if the Lakers can get another healthy season out of not only LeBron James and Anthony Davis but also role players like Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent (who were hurt most of the year), then L.A. may be better than expected. The duo of James and Davis alone is a more powerful tandem than most teams have to offer.

—Eric Pincus

New Orleans Pelicans9 of 10

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It’s fair to identify the center position as a major hole on this current New Orleans Pelicans roster, yet the guard and forward spots are absolutely loaded with talent following the trade for Dejounte Murray.

New Orleans also got 70 games out of Zion Williamson last year, who’s now reportedly down below his Duke playing weight of 285 pounds. Playing Williamson at center was a surprisingly effective strategy for the Pels last year, with New Orleans beating teams by an even 10.0 points per 100 possessions (93rd percentile, via Cleaning the Glass).

If Williamson is soaking up more minutes at center, that means one of the Pelican’s talented backups can join the starting lineup next to him. An opening five of Murray, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones or Trey Murphy III and Williamson may be a little scrawny, although the offensive potential is through the roof.

This was also a sneaky-good defense last year (111.9 rating, No. 6 overall) that could have made some real noise in the playoffs if Williamson was healthy and Ingram was at full strength.

If the Pelicans can flip Ingram into a starting center (or even if they don’t), this team is talented enough on both ends of the ball to make a run at the 2025 Finals.

—Greg Swartz

Indiana Pacers10 of 10

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The Indiana Pacers made the NBA’s Final Four last year and now get a full training camp with Pascal Siakam, who returns on a four-year, $188.9 million contract.

Indiana’s offense finished second only to the champion Boston Celtics, and this defense was much improved following the trade for Siakam. The Pacers ranked 27th in defense (119.5 rating) before trading for Siakam, yet jumped all the way to 18th (114.0 rating) in the 26 games following the All-Star break.

Getting Bennedict Mathurin back from shoulder surgery will be a nice boost to the Pacers, as the No. 6 overall pick of the 2022 draft carries star potential yet was overshadowed last year by the addition of Siakam and emergence of Andrew Nemhard. The latter finished the playoffs with averages of 20.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists and a 47.8 percent mark from three over his final five games against the New York Knicks and Celtics.

Other East teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks made bigger headlines with their big offseason additions. That should be just fine with these Pacers, who watched the Milwaukee Bucks pick up Damian Lillard last summer, only to breeze by him and the injury-riddled Bucks in the playoffs.

The Pacers won’t be the sexy pick in the East this year, but Tyrese Haliburton and company are deep, talented, well-coached and only getting better with a core that’s still yet to hit its peak.

—Greg Swartz