Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players in the 2024 NFL Draft

Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players in the 2024 NFL Draft0 of 6

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NFL success doesn’t take a one-size-fits-all approach.

It’s about surroundings and the intricate process that is coaching and player development.

We also live in a microwave society: Production is expected in rapid fashion no matter the position or environment. Those expectations are intensified for quarterbacks.

While a few prospects each cycle will earn the label of “scheme proof” or “plug-and-play” types of additions wherever they may land, evaluations for others differ drastically as you work from team to team.

Each of the following prospects will enter their rookie year with lofty expectations and high ceilings should the stars align both on and off the field.

However, failing to fine-tune a major part of their game, landing in an unfriendly scheme or a lack of long-term health could quickly sway the pendulum in the opposite direction.

QB Michael Penix Jr.1 of 6

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Attempting to nail when Michael Penix Jr. will hear his name called in April seems like an impossible task.

The quarterback’s fundamental arm talent opens eyes, as does his rapid improvement at Washington following his injury-riddled career at Indiana.

And while his success during the last two campaigns (67 TDs, 19 INTs) looks great on a box score, peeling back the layers of Penix’s game shows massive room for improvement.

He has reminded many of Detroit Lions backup and former Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker’s evaluation last spring. Similar to Penix, whose career at Indiana showcased a player who looked nearly unplayable at times, Hooker’s career at Virginia Tech (before transferring) left much to be desired.

For Hooker, things were simple pre-snap in a vertical, one-read offense during his time in the SEC.

Wideouts Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt made things extremely easy as separators, and Hooker was asked to drop throws into a vast bucket on the opposite side of where the safety rotated to.

Penix faced a similar situation in an offense headlined by projected top-10 pick Rome Odunze and a pair of middle-round selections in Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.

It’s not to say Penix won’t be able to produce in an offense lacking legitimate weapons on the perimeter, but it’s questionable if he can sit in the pocket and rip throws to condensed windows on the far hash or step up while a defensive tackle is bearing down on his ribs.

A lackluster performance at the Senior Bowl in a neutral environment with pass-catchers he’d never worked with before raised concerns, also.

For all quarterbacks, a variety of outliers can present a foundation for success. For Penix, however, failing to fine-tune his mechanics (all-arm mentality and sloppy footwork within the pocket) or landing in an offense that lacks weapons and has a league-average front five could present trouble for a team that asks him to start early on.

On the flip side, a team that deploys an offensive architecture that prioritizes vertical shots and limited reads post-snap could bring the best out of Penix as one of the draft’s premier vertical passers.

OT Amarius Mims2 of 6

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I wouldn’t be shocked if Amarius Mims evolves into one of the class’ premier players two or three years down the line.

However, the last time he played a full season came during his days at Bleckley High School in Cochran, Georgia. And the last time we saw Mims suit up in any athletic attire, he came up limp in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine (hamstring), ultimately ending his day.

While the 6’8″, 340-pound Mims checks nearly every box for what teams seek in a potential cornerstone at tackle (size/athleticism/length/level of competition), his injury history will remain the dark cloud that hangs over him during the early portions of his career until proven otherwise.

QB Joe Milton III3 of 6

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Joe Milton III simply doesn’t have a performance ceiling—which I mean in the best way possible. The Michigan Wolverine-turned-Tennessee Volunteer’s skill set remains one of the most intriguing of any prospect’s in the class.

Milton won’t be expected to start in year one, but the big, strong, powerful thrower could open eyes if he lands in a system that preaches development.

It’s really a game of give and take with the 6’5″, 235-pound Milton, as his turnover-worthy plays and errant throws can force you to scratch your head—right before he rips a far-hash comeback on a frozen rope or tosses a 50-yard throw into the bucket on a high-leverage down-and-distance.

I expect him to go higher than the fifth-round consensus come April, and if he falls into the right atmosphere with the right coaching, he could be the steal of the draft.

LB James Williams4 of 6

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A position switch for James Williams has forced him into being a bit more of a scheme-specific type of prospect than initially expected.

A safety for the Miami Hurricanes, Williams has made the transition to linebacker, where his short-area quickness and playmaking instincts are rare for the position at 6’4″, 231 pounds.

The first glimpse of Williams as an off-ball linebacker at the Senior Bowl left something to be desired, which is to be expected of an athlete making a move closer to the line of scrimmage. There’s less time to react than playing with depth at safety, and an ability to counter the run game is prioritized at a higher level.

If Williams lands inside a defense where his range and physicality can be showcased, he has a multiyear Pro Bowl type of label on his game. However, if a team asks him to play the soon-to-be extinct “Mike” spot in the middle of a defense, it could force Williams into a lighter workload.

The athleticism and skill set are there for Williams to thrive for a long time at the position, but much is asked of linebackers in today’s game, and it will take time for him to adjust to the second level.

S Kamren Kinchens5 of 6

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Looked upon as the top safety in the class just a few short months ago, Kamren Kinchens could be the epitome of boom-or-bust in the 2024 class.

He’s a smaller athlete at 5’11”, 203 pounds, and a 4.65-second 40-yard dash with a 1.59 10-yard split and a 9’2″ broad jump (worst at safety since 1999), along with an underwhelming showing at the Senior Bowl forced scouts to reevaluate.

Teams that prioritize winning the turnover margin will rank Kinchens highly on their positional board as a center field type of safety, but asking the former Miami Hurricane to carry larger tight ends up the seam or consistently challenge wideouts on 50-50 situations could alter his role at the back of a defense.

The range and instincts are excellent on tape, and his film will absolutely hold weight, but concerns could arise for a team that pigeonholes him as a low-hole or robber type of defender where his room to make plays in space becomes more compact.

WR Brian Thomas Jr.6 of 6

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College football’s leader in touchdown receptions in 2023 (17), Brian Thomas Jr. has remained a polarizing figure during the draft process.

While his success played second-fiddle to teammate and projected top-10 pick Malik Nabers, there’s a good bit of boom-or-bust in Thomas’ game due to the route-running nuance and release package lacking in his game.

While he remains one of the class’ premier prospects here at B/R, failing to iron out the wrinkles in his game quickly could see his future QB turn elsewhere if he’s unable to get off the line of scrimmage with a high level of consistency.

Teams often aligned in extended Cover 3 to try to force everything underneath against LSU—thus resulting in free releases off the line for Thomas—but how the 6’3″ wideout evolves to work through longer, more athletic and technically refined corners on Sundays will quickly give an indication of his potential success at the next level.