Biggest Risers and Fallers of MLB’s Top Prospect List in 2024
Joel ReuterSeptember 21, 2024Biggest Risers and Fallers of MLB’s Top Prospect List in 20240 of 13
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Prospect rankings are far from an exact science, and while many of the game’s top prospects go on to develop into MLB stars, a handful fail to live up to the hype.
Development is rarely linear, with ups and downs along the way in the minor leagues, and for every top prospect who has a down year and falls off leaguewide Top 100 prospect lists, there are just as many who put together breakout performances and send their stock soaring.
Ahead is a look back at our preseason Top 100 prospect list to highlight the biggest risers and fallers relative to our most recent update, which was published shortly after the 2024 MLB draft concluded.
Only players who still hold prospect status were considered for this list, though some of the league’s top rookies who exceeded preseason expectations were highlighted on one of our honorable mention slides.
As another minor league season winds to a close, these prospects have seen their stock shift the most in 2024.
Standout Rookies Who Exceeded Their Preseason Ranking1 of 13
Austin WellsAlika Jenner/Getty Images
Before we get started, let’s take a look at where some of baseball’s most unexpected rookie standouts checked in on our preseason Top 100 list:
Pitchers
SP Luis Gil, NYY (Unranked)
RP Bryan Hudson, MIL (Unranked)
SP Tobias Myers, MIL (Unranked)
SP Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (Next 50)
RP Cade Smith, CLE (Unranked)
SP Gavin Stone, LAD (Unranked)
SP Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN (Unranked)
Hitters
OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS (Unranked)
SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF (Unranked)
IF David Hamilton, BOS (Unranked)
OF Jhonkensy Noel, CLE (Unranked)
C Austin Wells, NYY (Next 50)
OF Jacob Young, WAS (Unranked)
Other Notable Fallers2 of 13
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Fallers
2B Termarr Johnson, PIT (No. 55 to No. 100)
RHP Daniel Espino, CLE (No. 61 to Unranked)
OF Gabriel Gonzalez, MIN (No. 62 to Unranked)
LHP Anthony Solometo, PIT (No. 64 to Unranked)
IF Orelvis Martinez, TOR (No. 66 to Next 50)
RHP Nick Frasso, LAD (No. 74 to Unranked)
IF Ronny Mauricio, NYM (No. 75 to Unranked)
RHP Chase Hampton, NYY (No. 76 to Unranked)
RHP Brock Porter, TEX (No. 80 to Unranked)
LHP Carson Whisenhunt, SF (No. 83 to Unranked)
RHP Jairo Iriarte, CWS (No. 93 to Unranked)
OF Samuel Zavala, CWS (No. 96 to Unranked)
IF/OF Sterlin Thompson, COL (No. 97 to Unranked)
Other Notable Risers3 of 13
Bubba ChandlerRichard Rodriguez/Getty Images
Risers
RHP Caden Dana, LAA (No. 100 to No. 41)
SS Aidan Miller, PHI (No. 91 to No. 42)
LHP Thomas White, MIA (Next 50 to No. 46)
1B Bryce Eldridge, SF (Next 50 to No. 48)
RHP Bubba Chandler, PIT (Next 50 to No. 51)
LHP Quinn Mathews, STL (Unranked to No. 52)
OF Josue De Paula, LAD (Next 50 to No. 53)
RHP Brandon Sproat, NYM (Unranked to No. 55)
SS Starlyn Caba, PHI (Unranked to No. 59)
SS/3B Brayden Taylor, TB (Unranked to No. 61)
2B/OF Luke Keaschall, MIN (Unranked to No. 64)
IF James Triantos, CHC (Next 50 to No. 65)
1B Ralphy Velazquez, CLE (Unranked to No. 70)
SS Angel Genao, CLE (Unranked to No. 72)
RHP Zebby Matthews, MIN (Unranked to No. 74)
SS Kevin McGonigle, DET (Next 50 to No. 76)
C Moises Ballesteros, CHC (Unranked to No. 78)
RHP Luis Morales, OAK (Unranked to No. 82)
RHP Emiliano Teodo, TEX (Unranked to No. 85)
OF Henry Bolte, OAK (Unranked to No. 89)
OF Jaison Chourio, CLE (Unranked to No. 92)
2B Kristian Campbell, BOS (Unranked to No. 97)
No. 5 Biggest Faller: LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Toronto Blue Jays4 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 26
Current Rank: 99
Left-hander Ricky Tiedemann was one of baseball’s biggest breakout prospects in 2022 when he posted a 2.17 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 117 strikeouts in 78.2 innings across three minor league levels in his pro debut.
Injuries limited him to 44 innings during the 2023 season, but he rebuilt his stock with a strong run in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 2.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings to win Pitcher of the Year honors.
The 22-year-old opened 2024 at Triple-A and looked like he was on track to debut by midseason, but instead he again dealt with arm issues that ultimately led to Tommy John surgery in July.
He is still young enough to get back on track, but pitching just 79.1 innings the last two years including his time in the Arizona Fall League has undoubtedly set him back.
No. 5 Biggest Riser: OF Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners5 of 13
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Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 21
Lazaro Montes began the year as a high-ceiling bat in the lower levels of the Seattle Mariners farm system following a terrific 2023 season in which he hit .303/.440/.560 with 19 doubles, 13 home runs, and 61 RBI in 70 games between rookie ball and Single-A.
He has now firmly established himself as one of the sport’s most promising power-hitting prospects.
With a strong 6’3″, 210-pound frame that belies the fact that he is still just a teenager, he regularly records elite exit velocity numbers, and he has hit .288/.397/.484 with 21 doubles, 21 home runs and 105 RBI in 116 games between Single-A and High-A.
The Mariners have made a habit of promoting prospects straight from Double-A to the majors, so a 2025 debut in the big leagues is not out of the question.
No. 4 Biggest Faller: RHP Dylan Lesko, Tampa Bay Rays6 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 45
Current Rank: Unranked
It was long-term potential more than production that earned Dylan Lesko the No. 45 spot on our preseason Top 100 list, as he posted a 5.45 ERA in 33 innings over three minor league levels in 2023.
That ugly ERA was accompanied by a 35.9 percent strikeout rate, and the big fastball, terrific changeup and playable breaking stuff that once made him a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft were all still present.
Unfortunately, he failed to improve this season back at the High-A level, struggling to a 6.46 ERA and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 55 hits and 52 walks in 69.2 innings.
The San Diego Padres traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline for controllable late-inning reliever Jason Adam, and he has more walks (23) than strikeouts (21) in 14.1 innings since that trade.
It will be interesting to see if one of baseball’s elite organizations at developing pitching can help him realize his vast potential in the coming years.
No. 4 Biggest Riser: RHP Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies7 of 13
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Preseason Rank: Next 50
Current Rank: 20
Chase Dollander entered his junior season at the University of Tennessee as the favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2023 draft following a sophomore campaign in which he went 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a 108-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 79 innings.
Instead, he slipped to the Colorado Rockies with the No. 9 pick after logging a 4.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 89 innings while his walk rate spiked from 4.2 to 7.8 percent.
Rolling the dice on his upside has paid immediate dividends for a Rockies organization constantly searching for pitching help.
The 6’2″, 200-pound right-hander has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s top-tier pitching prospects, posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 118 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first full professional season.
No. 3 Biggest Faller: RHP Mick Abel, Philadelphia Phillies8 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 37
Current Rank: Unranked
Mick Abel has flashed the potential to be a frontline starter since the Philadelphia Phillies plucked him from the Oregon high school ranks with the No. 15 overall pick in the shortened 2020 draft.
The projectable 6’5″, 190-pound right-hander entered the 2024 season with 328 strikeouts in 266.1 innings and poised to push for his first taste of the big leagues after closing out the previous year at the Triple-A level.
However, what had been spotty command at times in previous years has reached an untenable level this season, as he has issued 78 walks in 108.2 innings while surrendering a 6.46 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in a full season at the highest level of the minors.
He is still only 23 years old, and his stuff is still good enough to play in the big leagues, but he has significant work to do to refine his command before he can be considered a viable MLB option.
No. 3 Biggest Riser: SS Leodalis De Vries, San Diego Padres9 of 13
Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 19
A year after signing hyped catching prospect Ethan Salas, the San Diego Padres again landed the top player on the international market when they signed shortstop Leodalis De Vries for $4.2 million out of the Dominican Republic.
A switch-hitter with a polished approach at the plate and plenty of room to grow into his 6’2″, 183-pound frame, De Vries has been challenged in his pro debut similar to how the Padres handled Salas last summer.
The 17-year-old was sent straight to Single-A Lake Elsinore for his pro debut, and he has more than held his own as one of the youngest players in the California League.
In 76 games, he hit .238/.361/.442 with 22 doubles, 11 home runs, 38 RBI, 63 runs scored and 13 steals while also committing only eight errors in 505.2 innings of work at shortstop.
No. 2 Biggest Faller: LHP Robby Snelling10 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 29
Current Rank: Unranked
Robby Snelling was the sixth-ranked pitching prospect on our preseason Top 100 list following a brilliant 2023 season that sent his stock soaring.
A two-sport star in high school who was a 4-star linebacker recruit, Snelling seemed to take off last season in his first year giving baseball his full attention.
In 22 starts between Single-A, High-A and Double-A, he went 11-3 with a 1.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 103.2 innings, closing out the year with a 1.56 ERA in 17.1 innings as a teenager at the Double-A level.
The 6’3″, 210-pound southpaw struggled to miss bats back at Double-A to begin the 2024 season, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP while allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings over 73.1 innings before he was sent to the Miami Marlins in the deadline deal that brought relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing to San Diego.
He has pitched better since the trade, logging a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 41-to-11 strikeout-to-walk rate over 36 innings, and it’s entirely possible he will quickly regain his Top 100 status in 2025.
No. 2 Biggest Riser: 1B Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays11 of 13
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Preseason Rank: Next 50
Current Rank: 15
Between a foot injury that kept him from playing on the showcase circuit during the summer before his senior year of high school and a limited, first-base-only defensive profile, Xavier Isaac fit the mold of a high-risk, high-reward prospect.
The Tampa Bay Rays surprised more than a few in the industry when they took him with their first-round pick at No. 29 overall in the 2022 draft, but he has developed into one of the elite offensive prospects in baseball.
The 6’4″, 240-pound slugger is hitting .264/.370/.480 with 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 75 RBI, and 15 steals in 102 games between High-A and Double-A, and he does not turn 21 until December.
Isaac has just scratched the surface of his top-of-the-scale power potential, and with another step forward in his in-game power production, he will be squarely in the top prospect conversation in baseball.
No. 1 Biggest Faller: 2B/SS Adael Amador12 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 28
Current Rank: Unranked
Adael Amador looked like he was on the fast track to joining Ezequiel Tovar up the middle for the Colorado Rockies when he hit .287/.380/.495 with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and 46 RBI in 69 games during the 2023 season while reaching Double-A.
A broken hamate bone in his right hand limited him to just 69 games, but he was back to full health to begin the 2024 season and profiled as one of the most promising middle infield prospects in the sport.
The 21-year-old has continued to show an advanced approach and strong contact skills this season with 62 walks and 88 strikeouts in 455 plate appearances at Double-A, but he is hitting just .230/.343/.376 on the year.
With Brendan Rodgers set to reach free agency after the 2025 season, Amador still profiles as the second baseman of the future, and as one of the younger everyday players at the Double-A level he is still ahead of the curve.
No. 1 Biggest Riser: RHP Jackson Jobe13 of 13
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Preseason Rank: 53
Current Rank: 6
With Paul Skenes now firmly established in the big leagues and Andrew Painter and Cade Horton both navigating injury-plagued seasons, Jackson Jobe is now the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball.
The 22-year-old was brought along slowly after going No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft, tallying just 141.1 innings in his first two full seasons in the Detroit Tigers organization, but he is starting to force the club’s hand this year.
With a 1.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts in 73.2 innings at Double-A, he earned a late promotion to Triple-A, which could put him in a position to compete for a spot in the Detroit rotation during spring training next year.
The 6’2″, 190-pound right-hander has an electric fastball, an elite high-spin slider and a plus changeup and cutter in his four-pitch arsenal, and while he still needs to prove he can handle a full season’s workload, he checks all the boxes to be a potential No. 1 starter at the next level.
