Bleacher Report’s Week 6 NFL Picks
Bleacher Report’s Week 6 NFL Picks0 of 14
Bleacher Report
The NFL betting season isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon, and our experts have picked up their pace with consecutive winning weeks on consensus picks.
In Week 5, favorites covered against the spread in 10 out of 14 games, but our experts hear some dogs barking this week.
B/R’s NFL panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O’Donnell, Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, had a hard time reaching a consensus on several matchups. However, they also unanimously backed a couple of teams.
By the way, our lone-wolf picks (one expert backing a team) are 8-3 for the season. O’Donnell and Davenport stood alone for a couple of selections this week.
Before we break down Week 6, take a look at our expert leaderboard with last week’s results in parentheses.
ATS Standings
1. O’Donnell: 38-36-4 (9-5)
T-2. Knox: 36-38-4 (6-8)
T-2. Michelino: 36-38-4 (6-8)
T-4. Hanford: 35-39-4 (7-7)
T-4. Moton: 35-39-4 (8-6)
T-4. Sobleski: 35-39-4 (9-5)
7. Gagnon: 34-40-4 (8-6)
8. Davenport: 33-41-4 (7-7)
Consensus picks: 31-34-2 (8-5)
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Oct. 9, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)1 of 14
49ers QB Brock Purdy (left) and Seahawks QB Geno Smith (right) Jane Gershovich/Getty Images
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are two enigmatic teams that can give up a lot of points, which makes this a good spot to take the over for the total.
Against the spread, the 49ers have lost some trust, blowing double-digit leads late in games.
After a 3-0 start, the Seahawks have allowed 71 points combined in their two losses. Seattle lost in its previous outing to the New York Giants, who didn’t have starting wide receiver Malik Nabers or lead running back Devin Singletary.
Both teams need a win to bounce back after a rough start to October, and Hanford leaned on head-to-head history, which favors the 49ers.
“This feels like a get-right game for the struggling 49ers after blowing two fourth-quarter leads in three weeks. They’ve beaten Seattle in five straight by an average of just over 15 points per game. It’s tough to believe a roster this talented could be staring at 2-4, and the Seahawks look like they can be had coming off two straight losses.
“San Francisco is currently second in the NFL in total yards but ranks near the bottom of the league when it comes to scoring TDs in the red zone. I like that luck to change and for the 49ers to win going away Thursday night to show they’re still a force in the NFC.”
Predictions
Davenport: Seahawks
Gagnon: 49ers
Hanford: 49ers
Knox: Seahawks
Michelino: Seahawks
Moton: 49ers
O’Donnell: 49ers
Sobleski: Seahawks
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Chicago Bears (3-2)2 of 14
Bears QB Caleb WilliamsQuinn Harris/Getty Images
Before you write off the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their first game of the season last week, remember they’re used to travel and preparation for games in the United Kingdom. The Jaguars are 6-5 in London.
Despite the Jaguars’ experience in this scenario, our panel heavily sided with the Chicago Bears, because their offense continues to hit its high notes. Chicago has scored 60 points over the past two weeks.
Gagnon doesn’t think the Jaguars will build on their lone win of the season, with the Bears coming into this matchup after a couple of strong offensive performances.
“Maybe the Jaguars are finally turning it around, but it’s pretty tough to back them as a sub-field goal favorite in London. The Jags are very difficult to trust, and a 37-34 home victory over a mediocre opponent shouldn’t change that. Throw in that Caleb Williams is making some clear progress with tremendous support from a surging Bears defense and this is an easy call.”
Predictions
Davenport: Bears
Gagnon: Bears
Hanford: Bears
Knox: Bears
Michelino: Bears
Moton: Bears
O’Donnell: Jaguars
Sobleski: Bears
ATS Consensus: Bears -2.5
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Jaguars 19
Houston Texans (4-1) at New England Patriots (1-4)3 of 14
Texans QB C.J. StroudJohn Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
On Tuesday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the New England Patriots plan to start rookie quarterback Drake Maye over Jacoby Brissett.
Typically, when a team switches quarterbacks, the odds line moves, but the Patriots’ reported decision didn’t move this line at all, perhaps because of early week rumblings that the rookie would take over the huddle.
Half of our crew thinks Maye can spark the Patriots’ 31st-ranked scoring offense, but Moton isn’t one of them.
“How can anyone trust the Patriots to cover a seven-point spread with a rookie quarterback after they lost by five to the Miami Dolphins at home last week?” Moton asked rhetorically. “That’s a question for half the panel.
“New England chose the wrong game to insert its rookie quarterback behind a below-average offensive line. Maye can use his mobility to evade pressure, but 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. and four-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Danielle Hunter will welcome Maye to the NFL by slamming him to the ground multiple times in a Texans rout.”
Predictions
Davenport: Patriots
Gagnon: Patriots
Hanford: Patriots
Knox: Texans
Michelino: Patriots
Moton: Texans
O’Donnell: Texans
Sobleski: Texans
ATS Consensus: Texans -7
Score Prediction: Texans 21, Patriots 13
Washington Commanders (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2) 4 of 14
Commanders QB Jayden DanielsPatrick Smith/Getty Images
After a 37-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their season opener, the Washington Commanders have won and covered the spread in four consecutive outings.
Moreover, the Commanders offense is operating at a high level, scoring at least 34 points in each of the past three outings, but that’s not sustainable.
Washington’s offense will eventually face more resistance, but it may be not this week against the Baltimore Ravens’ 31st-ranked pass defense.
By the way, the Ravens played about seven additional overtime minutes in a high-scoring matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals last week.
Our crew came to a split decision for this game. Knox has concerns about the Ravens defense holding off the Commanders’ offense for a seven-plus-point victory.
“This is a tricky one, because it may all hinge on how well Baltimore controls things on the ground. In theory, Baltimore can use Derrick Henry to control the tempo against a Washington D ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed. If the Ravens can limit Jayden Daniels’ opportunities, possibly double-dip around intermission and avoid turnovers, they can absolutely run away with this one.
“That said, I’m inclined to take the points here. The Ravens secondary has struggled without Mike Macdonald running the show, and the Commanders have shown that they can score in a hurry. I have a feeling this will more closely resemble Baltimore’s overtime win over Cincinnati than its blowout victory over the Bills.”
Predictions
Davenport: Commanders
Gagnon: Ravens
Hanford: Commanders
Knox: Commanders
Michelino: Ravens
Moton: Commanders
O’Donnell: Ravens
Sobleski: Commanders
ATS Consensus: Commanders +6.5
Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Commanders 26
Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)5 of 14
Eagles RB Saquon BarkleyKevin Sabitus/Getty Images
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski isn’t ready to bench starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, likely because the team signed him to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract after acquiring him from the Houston Texans in 2022.
Money talks, but Watson’s poor performances could have the locker room speak louder as the Browns’ losses pile up.
One has to wonder if Stefanski and Cleveland’s brass risk losing the locker room while Watson struggles through his third term with the team.
The Browns have lost three consecutive games, and they’re playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Philadelphia Eagles team coming off a bye.
In favor of the consensus pick, Sobleski confidently laid the points with Philadelphia.
“The spread to this particular contest is massive considering the Eagles are 2-2, having lost their last contest by 17 points. The number points to how little faith can now be found in the Browns, particularly at quarterback. Cleveland’s offense appears broken. Deshaun Watson is missing simple reads. The offensive line is wrecked by injuries and playing poorly. The wide receivers haven’t helped the cause.
“Nick Chubb isn’t saving this group whenever he returns to the lineup. Conversely, Cleveland’s vaunted defense is nowhere near last year’s caliber, and the Eagles had two weeks to prepare for the game.”
Predictions
Davenport: Eagles
Gagnon: Browns
Hanford: Eagles
Knox: Eagles
Michelino: Browns
Moton: Eagles
O’Donnell: Eagles
Sobleski: Eagles
ATS Consensus: Eagles -8.5
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 16
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)6 of 14
Packers QB Jordan LoveBrooke Sutton/Getty Images
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love missed two games with a sprained MCL, but one has to wonder if he’s close to 100 percent.
Over the previous two weeks, Love has thrown for six touchdowns and four interceptions while completing about 59 percent of his passes. He’s completing just 56.1 percent of his passes this season.
Half of our panelists can see the Arizona Cardinals, with Kyler Murray playing efficiently and completing 68.1 percent of his passes, keeping this one close.
Initially, Davenport favored the Cardinals, but he looked at their wins and losses this season and noticed a trend that made him change his mind.
“Are the Packers the better team in this game? Yep. Are they playing in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, where the tundra is always frozen and the cheese flows as freely as the beer? You bet. Am I the last person who should be asked about point spreads? Absolutelyāit’s like asking a gibbon for tips on how to ride a motorcycle.
“This could easily be a game where the Cardinals hang around and cover. They could win outright. My initial lean was Arizona, and they’re getting a slight majority of the action. But if you pick the Redbirds here, you’re picking Arizona straight-up, essentiallyāall three of its losses have been by at least six points. Jordan Love lights up a beatable secondary, the Pack wins in the trenches and Green Bay wins by 10-plus.
“Also, wear a helmet. The more you know.”
Predictions
Davenport: Packers
Gagnon: Cardinals
Hanford: Cardinals
Knox: Packers
Michelino: Packers
Moton: Cardinals
O’Donnell: Packers
Sobleski: Cardinals
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Packers 30, Cardinals 20
Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)7 of 14
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.Justin Casterline/Getty Images
Both teams started this week with question marks at quarterback.
Will Levis is dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered before the Tennessee Titans’ Week 5 bye. Titans head coach Brian Callahan told reporters Levis will start if he’s healthy enough to play on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson missed the previous game with an oblique injury. Joe Flacco started in his place, throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns, but the Colts still lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-34.
Our experts backed the Colts in a pick ’em game without any definitive answers on the starting quarterbacks in this contest. Sobleski sided with the home team because Indianapolis has more personnel issues (because of injuries) than Tennessee coming into this matchup.
“Three factors play into the Titans’ favor when facing the Colts,” Sobleski said.
“First, Tennessee is coming off its bye, with two weeks to prepare and heal for this particular matchup.
“Second, the Titans offense isn’t good, but the Colts defense is the league’s worst by a rather wide margin. Tennessee’s offense should be able to move the ball, whether Will Levis or Marson Rudolph is starting at quarterback.
“Finally, the Titans hold a significant advantage by fielding the No. 1 defense, specifically a strong defensive interior, while the Colts have been dealing with injuries at guard and center.”
Predictions
Davenport: Titans
Gagnon: Colts
Hanford: Colts
Knox: Colts
Michelino: Colts
Moton: Titans
O’Donnell: Colts
Sobleski: Titans
ATS Consensus: Colts -1
Score Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)8 of 14
Buccaneers WR Mike EvansKevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints must deal with changes leading up to this contest.
Early Tuesday morning, the Buccaneers relocated to New Orleans to avoid Hurricane Milton, a notable disruption of their weekly routine.
According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Saints quarterback Derek Carr will miss multiple games because of an oblique injury. New Orleans will start rookie fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler, who flashed during the preseason.
Oddsmakers adjusted the line following the injury news about Carr, a 5.5-point swing, and our crew unanimously sided with Tampa Bay.
Knox pointed out another Saints injury that influenced his decision to back the Buccaneers.
“After watching Tampa’s pass defense fold on Thursday night, I was fully prepared to back New Orleans in Week 6. That was before Derek Carr and Will Harris both suffered injuries on Monday night.
“Harris has been a vital piece of the Saints defense this season, and if he can’t go, it’ll be a huge blow.
“We’re also now looking at Spencer Rattler against a defense that blitzes 30.9 percent of the time. Given New Orleans’ injuries along the offensive line, that’s another big issue for the Saints.
“I fully expected the line to shift if/when Carr was ruled outāNew Orleans was initially a two-point favoriteābut I also expected the Bucs to win by more than a field goal before his status became known. I expect Rattler to play well. Just not well enough.”
Predictions
Davenport: Buccaneers
Gagnon: Buccaneers
Hanford: Buccaneers
Knox: Buccaneers
Michelino: Buccaneers
Moton: Buccaneers
O’Donnell: Buccaneers
Sobleski: Buccaneers
ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -3.5
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Saints 17
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)9 of 14
Broncos QB Bo NixDustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Denver Broncos have played more confidently every week since their 0-2 start. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has completed at least 69 percent of his passes in two of his last three outings, and he’s scored three rushing touchdowns.
On the flip side, the Los Angeles Chargers started 2-0 and cooled off with a couple of losses against playoff-caliber teams before their bye week.
Quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) and offensive tackle Joe Alt (knee) practiced on Tuesday, a positive sign for the Chargers offense. Herbert played through a high ankle sprain in Week 4, and Alt missed the previous outing.
Our experts also reached a split decision on this game, though Davenport seems impressed with the Broncos’ three-game winning streak.
“That the Broncos are getting three at home worries meāthe lines aren’t created on accident. Feel a bit like Admiral Ackbar in Return of the Jedi,” Davenport said.
“But do we know that the Chargers are that much better than Denver? Yes, they had an extra week to prepareāand for Justin Herbert’s balky ankle to heal some more. And the Bolts have been stout defensively. But so has Denver, perhaps even more so. The Broncos are on a roll, winners of three straight. And Bo Nix appears to be settling in.
“This analyst actually likes Denver to win a low-scoring affair outright. And if ever there was a kiss of death for a team, that’s it.
“Just call me Typhoid Gary.”
Predictions
Davenport: Broncos
Gagnon: Broncos
Hanford: Chargers
Knox: Broncos
Michelino: Broncos
Moton: Chargers
O’Donnell: Chargers
Sobleski: Chargers
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Chargers 16
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)10 of 14
Steelers QB Justin FieldsJoe Sargent/Getty Images
Last week, the Las Vegas Raiders benched starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, opening the door for Aidan O’Connell to take over a struggling offense that is tied for first in turnovers (nine) and 22nd in scoring.
This week, the Raiders’ defensive front took a hit. The team placed Christian Wilkins on injured reserve. He’s out indefinitely with a foot injury.
With a major question at quarterback and a big loss on the defense, the Raiders couldn’t get much support from our panel in this matchup. Hanford, who keeps a close eye on the Steelers weekly, thinks they will end a two-game skid with a victory by more than a field goal.
“The Steelers’ defense has crashed back down to Earth the last two games after looking scary to start the season. They’ve gotten bullied on the ground and through the air, but the Las Vegas Raiders’ offense isn’t on the same level as the Colts or Cowboys, and that’s not going to be any different regardless of which QB is under center. And while Justin Fields has been up and down, it’s hard to imagine Russell Wilson giving an offense devoid of playmakers or even a cohesive plan a meaningful bump.
“I’ve been wrong on the Steelers three weeks in a row after backing the Chargers in Week 3 and Pittsburgh the last two weeks. Maybe this will be the week I’m finally right. Steelers offense struggles again, but the defense makes enough plays to win a low-scoring, ugly game.”
Predictions
Davenport: Raiders
Gagnon: Steelers
Hanford: Steelers
Knox: Steelers
Michelino: Steelers
Moton: Steelers
O’Donnell: Steelers
Sobleski: Steelers
ATS Consensus: Steelers -3
Score Prediction: Steelers 19, Raiders 14
Detroit Lions (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2)11 of 14
Lions QB Jared GoffPerry Knotts/Getty Images
The Dallas Cowboys overcame key injuries to pull out a win late last week on the Sunday Night Football stage. Led by quarterback Dak Prescott, they’re still a resilient bunch.
When we last saw the Detroit Lions, they looked impressive in prime-time action as well, outscoring the Seattle Seahawks 42-29. Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed all 18 pass attempts for 292 yards and two touchdowns in the victory.
The Cowboys’ 20-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t move the needle with our panel for this game. They unanimously sided with the Lions.
Michelino doesn’t see Dallas’ injury-riddled defense slowing down Detroit’s dynamic offense.
“The Lions are fresh off their bye and head into Jerry World as road favorites in this clash of NFC ‘titans.’ Looking every bit like the Super Bowl contenders we expected. Jared Goff is coming off his best performance of the season, leading a dynamic passing attack and power rushing combination (while also showcasing his receiving skills). Things are starting to click for Dan Campbell’s squad, who also ranked seventh in defensive DVOA, showing they’re a well-balanced unit.
“In Dallas, it’s been a sluggish start to the season for the Cowboys ever since their Week 1 win in Cleveland. They secured back-to-back wins in prime time, but they’re dealing with some significant injuries and their offense, lacking playmakers aside from CeeDee Lamb, has struggled to find any sort of consistency. You can feel the pressure beginning to swell for head coach Mike McCarthy, and I don’t see the Lions taking their foot off the pedal (especially after their one-point loss at AT&T Stadium last season).
“I just think it’s too much to overcome against a team this good, and I like the Lions to cover comfortably.”
Predictions
Davenport: Lions
Gagnon: Lions
Hanford: Lions
Knox: Lions
Michelino: Lions
Moton: Lions
O’Donnell: Lions
Sobleski: Lions
ATS Consensus: Lions -3.5
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Cowboys 26
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-4)12 of 14
Falcons QB Kirk CousinsCooper Neill/Getty Images
The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers offenses are trending in opposite directions.
In Week 5, Atlanta had its highest single-game output in scoring and total yards in regulation. Carolina’s point and yards totals have dropped every week since backup quarterback Andy Dalton provided a spark in Week 3 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Carolina could test the Falcons’ 29th-ranked run defense with Chuba Hubbard, who’s fifth leaguewide in rushing yards (393), but Moton doesn’t think Carolina’s defense can slow down Atlanta’s surging offense.
“Last Thursday, Cousins looked comfortable in Zac Robinson’s offense, and he will continue to sling the ball around with success against the Panthers,” Moton said emphatically.
“Usually, bettors should factor in the familiarity between division foes, but the Falcons offense clicked at the right time ahead of a matchup with a Panthers defense tied with the Washington Commanders for most passing touchdowns allowed and giving up the most rushing scores.
“Cousins doesn’t have to throw for 500-plus yards for the Falcons to run up the score on the league’s worst scoring defense.”
Predictions
Davenport: Panthers
Gagnon: Falcons
Hanford: Panthers
Knox: Falcons
Michelino: Panthers
Moton: Falcons
O’Donnell: Falcons
Sobleski: Falcons
ATS Consensus: Falcons -5.5
Score Prediction: Falcons 31, Panthers 21
Cincinnati Bengals (1-4) at New York Giants (2-3)13 of 14
Bengals WR Ja’Marr ChaseKara Durrette/Getty Images
Offensively, the New York Giants may be turning the corner with head coach Brian Daboll calling the plays.
Last week, the Big Blue racked up season highs of 420 total yards and 29 points in a win over the Seattle Seahawks without sensational rookie wideout Malik Nabers or starting running back Devin Singletary.
Darius Slayton and rookie fifth-rounder Tyrone Tracy Jr. shined in prominent roles in place of Nabers and Singletary, respectively.
In his last four outings, Daniel Jones has thrown for six touchdowns and one interception, completing about 68 percent of his pass attempts in three consecutive contests.
Perhaps the Giants can stay within a field goal of the Cincinnati Bengals’ fourth-ranked scoring offense. Three of our panelists are taking the Giants, but O’Donnell isn’t ready to get back on board with Big Blue yet.
“Take away that opening week shellacking by the Vikings, and the Giants have been shockingly competent. Big Blue has yielded fewer than 18 points per game since that loss. The problem remains the offense and if it can score more than 18 points. Daniel Jones hasn’t had a legitimate turnover since Week 1āwe’re not counting that Hail Mary INT vs. Dallas as legitimateāand they’re actually sustaining drives.
“However, Jones is 1-14 (SU) in prime-time games. With the 1-4 Bengals coming to town having scored 33 or more points in three straight weeks, I don’t know that 3.5 is enough for me to back New York even against a Cincy defense that is 31st in the league in scoring. The Giants may make this ugly and have a shotāsee: Dallas game in Week 3āand they still lost that by five. Bengals get right by more than a touchdown.”
Predictions
Davenport: Giants
Gagnon: Giants
Hanford: Bengals
Knox: Bengals
Michelino: Giants
Moton: Bengals
O’Donnell: Bengals
Sobleski: Bengals
ATS Consensus: Bengals -3.5
Score Prediction: Bengals 30, Giants 23
Buffalo Bills (3-2) at New York Jets (2-3)14 of 14
Bills QB Josh AllenAlex Slitz/Getty Images
On Tuesday, the New York Jets made headlines when they fired head coach Robert Saleh. While the move didn’t shake up the odds for this matchup, bettors should take an in-season head-coaching change into account.
A few of our experts factored in the positive “bump” from firing a struggling head coach, so our panel is evenly split.
However, the Jets fired a defensive-minded lead skipper, but they still have to fix issues with their struggling offense, which has accumulated the fewest rushing yards through five weeks and is averaging just 18.6 points per game.
On Monday, Gang Green will host a flailing Buffalo Bills squad that’s lost back-to-back games.
When you consider both teams have been linked to disgruntled Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (via The Athletic), this AFC East matchup has all sorts of storylines, which sets the stage for a high-pressure prime-time battle between rivals for first place in the division.
O’Donnell is riding with the Bills in a crucial prime-time spot.
“Fired coach bump incoming, and this is juicy,” O’Donnell said. “This is a great spot to take the points with the thought that the Jets could probably win this outright. These teams have split the last four meetings with the home team winning every time.
“Again, this is screaming Jets ‘upset’ in prime time. The Jets could look entirely different coming back stateside from a loss in London, inspired by a new coach and knowing the immense importance of a division game at home. And that’s why I’m blocking out the noise and going the other way. The Jets are simply a circus I won’t pay to see.”
Predictions
Davenport: Jets
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Jets
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Jets
Moton: Bills
O’Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Jets
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Bills 22, Jets 18
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