Bold Predictions for the Rest of the 2023-24 NBA Season

Bold Predictions for the Rest of the 2023-24 NBA Season0 of 6

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The 2024 NBA trade deadline is now complete, with perhaps more headlines being made for what didn’t happen then what actually took place.

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, two teams that look like they need help to even make the playoffs, were surprisingly quiet. The Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks both decided to keep their cores together despite no evidence of success, and the Dallas Mavericks gave up the last of their first-round picks for…P.J. Washington.

While the buyout market could change the fortune for some teams, we have a pretty good idea of where teams stand heading into the homestretch of the season.

With the trade deadline now passed, it’s time to make some bold predictions.

Minnesota Timberwolves Won’t Finish as a Top-4 Seed1 of 6

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have held a top-4 seed in the West since Nov. 6 and have held down the No. 1 seed for the majority of the season.

By the middle of April, however, the Wolves will have to open the playoffs on the road.

This isn’t necessarily a knock on Minnesota, but rather a tip of the hat to the top of the West in general. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are all tied or within a half game of Minnesota. All three have outplayed the Wolves over the past month-plus as well.

Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Timberwolves are just sixth in the West with an 11-9 record overall. The Clippers (15-4), Thunder (13-7) and Nuggets (12-5) have all been better, with the Wolves not doing enough at the trade deadline to inspire any real confidence for a turnaround.

A fall to fifth will be complete when Minnesota ultimately gets passed over by the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns look like a different team with a healthy Bradley Beal, and they’ve gone 16-6 over their past 22 games. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Beal all on the floor, Phoenix has a net rating of plus-16.5, good for the 99th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.

A trade deadline deal to acquire Royce O’Neale from the Brooklyn Nets only makes this team deeper, especially since the Suns didn’t have to send out Grayson Allen or Nassir Little.

The Suns will rise to a top-4 seed in the West, causing the Timberwolves to give up homecourt advantage in the playoffs.

Buddy Hield to Sixers Is Best Trade Deadline Day Deal2 of 6

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While players like Bojan Bogdanović, P.J. Washington, Grant Williams, Gordon Hayward, Royce O’Neale, Dennis Schröder, Kelly Olynyk, Daniel Gafford and Patrick Beverley all switched teams on trade deadline day, no deal will turn out to be more important than Buddy Hield going to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philly is in an incredibly difficult spot, trying to still stay afloat in the East while waiting for a hopeful return from Joel Embiid from a knee injury. A 4-12 record this season without the MVP center hasn’t inspired much confidence, however.

The 76ers also needed to preserve cap space for this summer while upgrading the roster, all while trying to hold on to their first-round picks acquired in the James Harden deal.

Check, check and check.

Getting Hield was huge for Philly, especially since the sharpshooter is on an expiring $18.5 million contract. The Sixers desperately need his shooting and playmaking, as they rank just 20th overall in offensive rating since Embiid was shut down.

Hield isn’t just one of the most prolific three-point shooters in today’s game, either. The 31-year-old is a talented passer when called upon to do so and should have plenty of opportunities to make plays for his new teammates. This is crucial considering Tyrese Maxey is making 46.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, compared to just 32.3 percent of his pull-ups.

The addition of Hield will keep the 76ers in the top six seeds in the East until Embiid can return.

Golden State Warriors Dynasty Officially Ends3 of 6

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No team needed to make an impact trade more than the Golden State Warriors.

Instead of exploring frontcourt help, finding an upgrade over Andrew Wiggins or using Chris Paul’s expiring contract to help facilitate a deal for a star, the Warriors’ only move was sending Cory Joseph to the Indiana Pacers to help shave their luxury-tax bill and open a roster spot.

For a team currently ranked 11th in the West and out of the play-in tournament, this isn’t going to cut it.

It’s time to officially declare the Warriors dynasty dead.

New general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. failed Stephen Curry at the deadline by not getting him more help. There’s no reliable second scoring option anymore with Klay Thompson’s decline, with the majority of this roster either too old or too inexperienced to compete for a title anymore.

The Warriors had a first-round pick to trade in 2028 along with players like Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandon Podziemski and a salary matcher in Paul. Future second-round picks are coming in 2026 and 2028 from the Atlanta Hawks. While this may not have been enough to trade for a superstar, the Warriors certainly could have fetched an upgrade to their starting lineup next to Curry.

There’s still a chance that Golden State gets Paul back from a broken hand and climbs into the West play-in tournament. They might even finish as a 7th or 8th seed in the West by the start of the playoffs.

Still, there’s no way this roster is winning a playoff round. Curry will be 36 this March and Draymond Green, 34. Thompson just turned 34 and will be a free agent this summer.

After pulling off one of the greatest 10-year runs in NBA history, the Warriors dynasty will officially end this season.

Trae Young Will Request to Be Traded This Summer4 of 6

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Last year around this time, we made the prediction that Damian Lillard would be playing out his final season with the Portland Trail Blazers. This year, expect Young to be the next star guard traded during the offseason.

The Hawks have been going backward ever since their surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, with winning percentages of .524, .500 and now .431 the past three years. After losing in the first round of the East playoffs the past two seasons, the Hawks are in real danger of even missing the play-in tournament now.

A breaking point is coming.

Young has just two guaranteed years remaining on his contract after this season, meaning the sooner the Hawks trade him the better the return will be. Young’s patience with the front office and playing for four different head coaches the past four years could be wearing out as well.

Need some more reasons to believe a Young trade is approaching?

The Hawks made the surprising choice to keep Dejounte Murray at the trade deadline despite endless rumors about him being moved. Keeping Murray on board as a franchise point guard is good insurance and means Atlanta can move Young and not have to worry about getting a premier floor general back in return.

The Los Angeles Lakers, a team loaded with Klutch stars like Young, would be at the front of the line as a trade destination. They also chose to stay quiet at the deadline, and by doing so will now have three first-round picks to trade by the draft (2024 or 2025 depending which the New Orleans Pelicans want, 2029 and 2031). Like with Anthony Davis, Young could request a trade to the Lakers only.

The Hawks are going nowhere this season, as well as Young has played. Expect this to be his final year in Atlanta.

Dallas Mavericks Will Miss the Playoffs…Again5 of 6

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After swinging the big trade for Kyrie Irving last year, we predicted that Dallas would miss the West playoffs, a prognosis that did not go over well with Mavericks fans.

Even following trades for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, we’re still doubling down and predicting an early offseason for the Mavs.

Dallas is a good team. They got better at the trade deadline, and the pairing of Luka Dončić and Irving has been more successful in Year 2. Still, in this West, simply being good isn’t good enough.

The Mavs are 14-10 this season with their two stars active and have a net rating of plus-5.3 with both Dončić and Irving on the floor. Again, good, but not encouraging enough to believe that Dallas is going to leapfrog teams like the Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings to make it out of the West play-in tournament.

We’ve seen what a locked-in LeBron James-led Lakers team can do in a tournament setting, meaning the Mavs would have to knock off either the Suns, Kings or Pelicans to even earn an eighth seed in the West. All three are more talented than Dallas.

Gafford isn’t going to fix a 22nd-ranked defense, and the Mavs now have no more first-round picks left to trade after giving their final one up for Washington. Their 2031 selection only becomes available to deal this summer.

Missing the playoffs in back-to-back years is a nightmare scenario for the Mavericks, especially knowing the competitor that Dončić is. With just two guaranteed years left on his contract, there could be some tough conversations coming this summer in Dallas, especially since most of the future has already been mortgaged.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Wins MVP6 of 6

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With Joel Embiid now sidelined following surgery a procedure on his left knee, Nikola Jokić has become the overwhelming favorite to win his third MVP award.

While Jokić is still the best basketball player in the world right now, the regular-season MVP will ultimately go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Gilgeous-Alexander began building his MVP momentum last season, finishing fifth overall in the voting and ultimately held back by the Oklahoma City Thunder’s below-.500 record. That excuse can’t be used for voters this time around.

The Thunder and Denver Nuggets (along with the Los Angeles Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves) are all tied or within a half game of first place in the loaded West. The team that ultimately finishes higher between OKC and Denver could have a big impact on each star’s MVP case as well.

Between the two, the Thunder had the better trade deadline, picking up veteran wing Gordon Hayward from the Charlotte Hornets while the Nuggets remained silent. OKC is the deeper team, loaded with wings and a plethora of young talent still climbing towards their collective primes.

While Jokić’s advanced stats have previously helped his case, he’s now looking up at OKC’s star guard.

Gilgeous-Alexander ranks first in the NBA with 14.6 estimated wins added this season per DunksandThrees.com, and only Joel Embiid has a higher estimated plus-minus score than SGA’s plus-9.6.

No guard has won MVP since James Harden in 2017-18, a drought that Gilgeous-Alexander will end.