Broncos’ Playoff Scenarios: Denver Facing Win-and-In Situation in Week 18

The Denver Broncos entered this season with no shortage of question marks. How would a team with a rookie quarterback fare in a difficult division owned by the Kansas City Chiefs?

The Broncos have exceeded expectations, and Bo Nix’s progress throughout his rookie season makes this a success. However, the ending will be bitter if Denver can’t clinch a playoff spot that seemed like a lock just two weeks ago.

What do the Broncos need to ensure they don’t extend their playoff drought to a ninth straight season?

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What Is the Denver Broncos’ Current Playoff Picture?
Despite an 0-2 start, Denver has put itself in a spot to control its own destiny. Despite the overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, the Broncos only need to win a Week 18 game against a Kansas City Chiefs team with nothing to play for to clinch their AFC playoff berth.

The Broncos are double-digit favorites given how many players are resting for the top-seeded Chiefs. Notable Chiefs labeled out or doubtful for Sunday’s game include Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Jawaan Taylor, Isiah Pacheco, George Karlaftis, Justin Reid, and Nick Bolton.

Denver has lost 17 of its last 18 games against Kansas City, but this doesn’t bear any resemblance to all those dynastic Chiefs teams. Given that the Broncos have played tight contests the last two weeks on the road against the Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers, a home contest against Carson Wentz and the JV Chiefs shouldn’t feel too daunting.

Of the final three teams alive for the AFC Wild Card spot, the Broncos are the only one who could still reach the playoffs with a loss. Denver could still make it if both the Bengals and Miami Dolphins lose or tie their games.

That said, if either the Bengals or Dolphins tie the Broncos, they’ll own the tiebreaker:

Bengals: Beat the Broncos head-to-head in Week 17
Dolphins: Better record against the AFC than the Broncos

The Bengals have a difficult road matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday. However, the Steelers are no longer alive for the AFC North after the Ravens defeated the Browns. Will they rest their starters after falling into the fifth seed? A loss and a Chargers win could see them drop to the sixth seed.

The Dolphins have a much easier contest against the New York Jets, who appear ready for the offseason. The Jets have lost six of their last seven games, with Aaron Rodgers openly acknowledging that Sunday could be his final game. Even with Tyler Huntley, a Miami defeat would be shocking.

To summarize, the Broncos can earn the final AFC Wild Card berth in one of the following scenarios:

1) Win vs. KC OR

2) MIA loss/tie vs. NYJ AND CIN loss/tie vs. PIT