Calgary Stampeders likeliest Grey Cup winner per CFL playoff probability rankings

Photo courtesy: Calgary Stampeders
The Calgary Stampeders might just go from worst to first, if the CFL’s math is to be believed.

On Wednesday, the league unveiled its first playoff probability rankings of the 2025 season. Previously known as the CFL simulation, the list calculates the odds of postseason scenarios based on all nine teams’ current resumes.

Despite currently sitting second in the West Division, the Stampeders (8-3) have the best odds to win the 112th Grey Cup at 41.84 percent. The Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-2) have the second-best shot at 31.32 percent, followed by the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-5) at 11.26 percent.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-5), Toronto Argonauts (4-8), and Ottawa Redblacks (3-8) all have single-digit chances to win the big trophy in the Manitoba capital this November. The Montreal Alouettes (5-6), B.C. Lions (5-6) and Edmonton Elks (4-7) all come in with a less than one percent chance of being crowned champions, with Edmonton’s 0.34 percent odds being the lowest.

The Ticats have the highest chance of making it to the big game at 55.12 percent, with the likeliest Grey Cup matchups being Calgary versus Hamilton (27.81 percent) or Saskatchewan versus Hamilton (23.51 percent). Unsurprisingly, the Stampeders (52.84 percent) and Ticats (75.84 percent) also have the best chance to win their respective divisions.

Rider fans can take consolation in the fact that their team has been deemed the likeliest to host a playoff game at 93.61 percent. Calgary (99.94 percent), Saskatchewan (99.88 percent), Winnipeg (96.17 percent), and Hamilton (95.52 percent) are virtual locks to qualify for the postseason in the league’s model, while Edmonton (15.80 percent), Montreal (42.76 percent), and B.C. (44.70 percent) are the likeliest to miss the playoffs. Even so, the odds of West Division team crossing over to the East are pegged at 56.60 percent.

These odds remain fluid and could change dramatically in the aftermath of Week 14. In particular, the struggling Alouettes could tie the slumping Tiger-Cats for first in the East on Saturday, which would presumably flip the model on its head.