Celtics vs. Mavs live betting updates, highlights, expert predictions and picks for Game 3 of NBA Finals

Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals tips off tonight in Dallas, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Mavericks (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC, Sling).

The Sporting News’ BetMGM live betting blog will focus exclusively on this championship clash, providing live score updates, betting lines, odds, picks and advice.

MORE NBA FINALS BETTING:
Updated series odds & best bets | Finals MVP best bet | Takeaways from Game 2

The Celtics have cruised to a 14-2 record this postseason, and they look like clear favorites to win it all after big wins in Game 1 and 2. BetMGM now has Boston listed at -1000 to win the Finals, an assertion that seems tough to pick apart considering teams with 2-0 championship-round leads have won the Finals over 86 percent of the time throughout history.

However, this is a Dallas team that has won plenty of big games this postseason. In each of the Mavs’ first three series of these playoffs, they have mounted upsets in Game 2. Maybe Game 3 will be the game in this series in which Luka, Kyrie, and company get it done and show a pulse. The Celtics losing Kristaps Porzingis to a foot injury will certainly help the Mavs’ chances.

The Sporting News’ betting team is here for the action before, during, and after Game 3, and for every game in the entire series. Those familiar with the SN BetMGM live blogs know how this all works, but here’s the rundown for anyone new to the party:

We highlight the best bets and top props on the day of the game so you can lock in value well ahead of the opening tipWe offer live betting advice, provide game and score updates, and relay intriguing betting lines and over/under props throughout the gameWe close out the night detailing our hits and misses, going over the results of the game as well as the Sporting News best bets both pregame and liveLet’s keep the fun rolling and unveil the top BetMGM betting picks for Game 3 of the Celtics-Mavs NBA Finals. Stay with us early and often as we will also be dropping live recommendations from the opening tip to the final whistle. 

Celtics at Mavs: Game 3 score, highlightsThis is where the Sporting News’ live betting blog will post updates and offer live up-to-the-minute betting advice during Game 3. 

Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 score Q1Q2Q3Q4TotalCeltics3020  50Mavs3120  519:44 p.m.: We never do these types of game props, but we’re intrigued by BetMGM’s “Both teams to score in the first minute of the second half” prop at +130. After a pretty ugly and sometimes stagnant second quarter, we have to believe Joe Mazzulla and Jason Kidd will have good plays drawn up to kick off the third frame. 

9:38 p.m.: After a 61-point first quarter, these squads slowed down and cooled off considerably and combined to score 40 in the second frame. We still like the live OVER of 203.5 points (-120), as nothing hits in the Finals like home-squad desperation. On the Celtics’ side, we would be inclined to live-bet Jayson Tatum’s UNDER of 35.5 points (-120). With Jaylen Brown and Derrick White a combined 3-of-13, the Mavs are going to blitz JT in the second half. 

9:19 p.m.: Tough not to like what we’re seeing from the Celtics. Their live team total is 104.5, which seems like an easy OVER bet (-115). Dallas isn’t playing very good defense and the game has been pretty up-tempo from the jump. Plus, Tatum and Kyrie both look better than they have all series. 

9:05 p.m.: What even just happened!? The Mavs just owned the majority of that first quarter, and Boston put together a massive end-of-the-quarter run aided largely by Celtics defense and Luka not getting back in transition. Wow! 

8:34 p.m.: Favorite Luka Doncic props:

Doncic wins race to 10 points (+120)Doncic 10+ assists (-110)Doncic triple-double (+240)8:31 p.m.: Look for Jayson Tatum to try to get going early. We’ve got some action on Tatum, Luka Doncic, and Jaylen Brown all scoring in the first three minutes of Game 3. The stars usually step up when the venue gets switched up!

8:00 p.m. ET: Well, by now we all know the top story of the day: Kristaps Porzingis will be sidelined for at least Game 3 due to his ankle injury. That’s a big deal, considering the Celtics have enjoyed a plus/minus of +25 through his 44 minutes this series. We already liked the Mavs in this game — now we love them. Consider betting the Mavs -1.5 in the first quarter and -2.5 for the game. We also like Boston UNDER 55.5 first-half points (-154) and UNDER 107.5 points for the game. 

Celtics at Mavs: Game 3 best betsThese are the Sporting News’ top betting picks ahead of Game 3. As the game draws closer, we will add bets and props to this list and also offer up live-betting advice and picks throughout the actual game. Check back early and often for more top bets.

Mavericks -1.5 (1Q) vs. Celtics (-105)The Celtics have pushed the Mavericks onto the proverbial ropes, and it’s time for Dallas to come out swinging with its biggest and best haymakers in Game 3. Jason Kidd now has two games with which to break down film and make adjustments so he can get someone else going outside of Luka and P.J. Washington.

The Mavs started Game 2 on fire, with Luka smoldering from outside and the visiting team winning the first frame 28-25. If Dallas brings that same intensity at home in Game 3, it should win the first quarter once again with relative ease. 

The one key difference we expect is the contribution of Kyrie, who has struggled mightily against his former team at TD Garden since stomping on the Celtics’ logo and burning sage court-side. KI has done a lot of growing up this season, but the boo-birds of Boston and elsewhere still obviously get to him. He has shot and scored noticeably better at American Airlines Arena this season.

Take a look at Irving’s points per game, rebounds per game, free throw and plus/minus splits at home vs. away:

SplitPPG RPGFT%+/-Home27.05.992.0%+8.2Away24.24.187.7%+4.9Irving has also averaged nearly four more points per game at home this postseason, while shooting over four percent better from the floor and nearly five percent better from three-point land. So, consider betting Dallas to start off hot once again and Irving to have much more to do with it this time.

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Celtics team total: UNDER 107.5 (-140)No matter how you feel about this game, this bet seems like a good value. If Dallas comes out and punches Boston in the mouth, the Celtics likely finish UNDER 107.5. If Boston continues to stifle the Mavs and wins in commanding fashion again, the Celtics will likely finish UNDER 107.5.

Joe Mazzulla’s squad has finished below 108 three games in a row and eight times total this postseason. The Mavs have been elite defensively at home since the All-Star break, and they will more than likely get away with more physicality in Game 3 with the benefit of some home whistles. Expect a gritty, hard-fought game. 

Kyrie Irving OVER 23.5 points (-120)When Irving walked off the floor at TD Garden on Sunday night, he had this look that almost seemed to say “I’ll be back.”

The superstar guard has let his team down through two games this Finals, and it would be shocking to see one of the most clutch playoff performers of the modern era of the Association struggle mightily a third straight time.

As already mentioned above, Irving plays much better at home than he does on the road. Those splits are amplified even more when you’re talking about TD Garden vs. American Airlines Arena.

KI is public enemy No. 1 in Boston, and a hero in Dallas. He has averaged 24.5 points per game over the Mavs’ past seven home games, and he should step up and score 24-plus with his squad needing him the most in this one.

Luka Doncic OVER 9.5 assists (-110)This almost feels like a correlation bet with Kyrie’s scoring OVER. With Irving scoring more, Doncic can take his foot off the gas a bit and maybe his engine can make it to crunch time.

The Mavs perform considerably better when Doncic is serving as a playmaker — not just a scorer — and if his passing gets “the others” going, Dallas has a fighter’s chance in this series. 

Doncic had 11 assists in Game 2, to go along with 32 points and 11 rebounds. Ten assists at home in a must-win game seems like great value, as does Luka’s +210 triple-double prop. The superstars will show up for this one, and bettors will cash in because of it.

Jayson Tatum double-double (-130)This seems like an even better bet than Nikola Jokic’s triple-double props were in the 2023 postseason. Tatum has double-dubs in eight of the Celtics’ past nine games and 13 of their 16 total games in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Even when he has struggled with his jumper, he has made a difference by crashing the boards and dishing out assists.

That’s the best part of the double-double prop here — JT can hit it with boards or dimes. He has logged double-digit rebounds in 12 of 16 postseason contests and he’s coming off a 12-assist Game 2 (his second double-digit dime game of the playoffs).

With Kristaps Porzingis potentially banged up and Al Horford not getting any younger, JT should be crashing the boards again. If he isn’t, you’ve got the fall-back luxury of him dishing out another 10 assists. Big-time value here.