College Football Playoff predictions: SN experts pick Michigan-Alabama, Washington-Texas

Close calls. 

That is what the Sporting News’ panel expects in the College Football Playoff semifinals on Jan. 1. 

No. 1 Michigan meets No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Wolverines are favored by 1.5 points against the Crimson Tide. Our five-person panel, however, likes Alabama to advance to another CFP championship game under Nick Saban. Did anybody pick Michigan and coach Jim Harbaugh in this one? Hint: One expert did. 

No. 2 Washington faces No. 3 Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Longhorns are 4.5-point favorites despite losing to the Huskies in the Valero Alamo Bowl last season. Will Steve Sarkisian get a victory against his former team? Or will Sporting News Coach of the Year Kalen DeBoer extend the Huskies’ winning streak to 21 games? Four of our six experts like Washington. 

The winners advance to the CFP championship game on Jan. 8 at NRG Stadium in Houston. 

SN’s staff makes their picks for the College Football Playoff semifinals:

Sporting News’ expert panel gives their picks for the College Football Playoff semifinals.

MORE: 2023 Sporting News All-America team

Michigan vs. Alabama predictions 

Bill Bender: Alabama 26, Michigan 23

Why is Michigan only a slight favorite? It’s on the Wolverines to change the narrative. Will J.J. McCarthy complete enough clutch third-down throws against an Alabama pass defense that allows 188.8 yards per game and features All-American cornerbacks in Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold? Can they sustain a running attack with Blake Corum? Is the nation’s top scoring defense good enough to shut down Jalen Milroe, who averaged 220.2 passing yards with 10 TDs and one interception in Alabama’s last five games? Michigan absolutely can win this game, but we’ll stick with the Tide by a late Will Reichard field goal in an instant classic.

Bill Trocchi: Alabama 30, Michigan 27

The stat I always like to point to with Michigan is this: The Wolverines are tied for the third fewest giveaways in the nation with seven and they lead the nation in fewest penalties. In other words, the Wolverines are not going to help you beat them. However, I also have a hard time getting away from this stat: The SEC is 22-4 in non-conference games in BCS title games and College Football Playoff games. That is not a small sample size. I also like to look at one-score games to see experience in pressure games. Michigan has two, Alabama has four plus the Texas loss, which was a pressure game. Magic 8 Ball says Tide.

Mike DeCourcy: Michigan 24, Alabama 19

The only thing that makes me nervous about Michigan entering this game is how rarely they’ve played anyone even remotely capable of beating them. They’ve had to get up for two games, really. They never were threatened by Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. But the Wolverines did get up for Penn State and Ohio State, and they did control both games. They didn’t dominate, but they were in charge. And the destructive defense appears to be equipped to do the same to the Crimson Tide.

Edward Sutelan: Alabama 31, Michigan 27 

Michigan has not won a bowl game since the Citrus Bowl in 2015. Each loss in the College Football Playoff has been disappointing for several reasons — whether it is being blown out by Georgia or stunningly giving up 51 to TCU. Alabama doesn’t lose in the CFP. It doesn’t really lose bowl games. Since the inaugural CFP, the Crimson Tide have won at least one postseason game every year. Give Nick Saban a month, and he’ll figure out a way to have the Crimson Tide ready for the best Michigan team under Jim Harbaugh.

Nick Musial: Alabama 23, Michigan 20

I’m not sure I see a path to consistent offense for the Wolverines. If Alabama’s run defense performs like it did when it held Georgia to 78 yards on 31 carries in the SEC title game, can J.J. McCarthy consistently bail his offense out on obvious passing downs? Alabama’s been one of the most efficient pass defenses (16th in dropback EPA), so it could be a struggle for Roman Wilson and the rest of the Wolverines’ receiving corps to create separation outside. Alabama’s ability to hit on explosive plays is the difference in this one, as the fourth-seeded Tide keep Michigan winless in the CFP.

Vinnie Iyer: Alabama 27, Michigan 24

Jalen Milroe will do his best impression of Jalen Hurts mashed up with Tua Tagovailoa as once again the Crimson Tide are led by hot quarterback play at the right time. Nick Saban once led Michigan State, so he won’t forget how much he used to hate Michigan. Jim Harbaugh was the better NFL guy for sure, but college is the coaching domain for Saban. The Tide defense rallies to put a ‘red scare’ in J.J. McCarthy while Milroe yells ‘Wolverine!,’ pretending he was in ‘Red Dawn.’ Speaking of Wolverine, there might be now room for him in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but it’s time the national championship favorites to fall into the dead pool.

Washington vs. Texas predictions

Bill Bender: Texas 34, Washington 27

This game is all about efficiency. Quinn Ewers (162.6) and Michael Penix Jr. (161.4) are almost identical in terms of passer rating, and their receivers will make huge catches. The key for Texas is slowing down Washington’s running game. Dillon Johnson had 701 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry against ranked teams. The Longhorns’ defense is stout on the interior with T’Vondre Sweat and Bryon Murphy. That could be a difference-maker in a tight fourth quarter, and the Longhorns will have more success in crunch time. We’ll stick with Texas by a touchdown, perhaps with the help of a late turnover.

Bill Trocchi: Washington 38, Texas 34

Washington flirted with disaster all season, but emerged with a 13-0 record. The Huskies won seven one-score games, and dating back to last season, Sporting News Coach of the Year Kalen DeBoer has guided Washington to 11 straight one-score wins. The Huskies are going to try to establish the run. If it is not going to go well, then it will then have to rely on Michael Penix’s left arm to get it done. But Penix’s arm has magic in it, and DeBoer will work his one-score wizardry again.

MORE: TSN names Kalen DeBoer Coach of the Year

Mike DeCourcy: Washington 31, Texas 30

It’s really simple: If this game is a blowout, it’ll be Texas celebrating at the end (and, to be accurate, throughout the fourth quarter). If it’s a close game, though, as competitive as each teams’ performance to date would suggest, well, Washington knows how to win those games. They understand how to get the big stop, how to convert that essential third down, how to maintain confidence when the pressure is most excruciating. I suspect there’ll be plenty of that as this game approaches its conclusion.

Edward Sutelan: Washington 38, Texas 35

There’s little doubt Washington’s defense is the most susceptible in the College Football Playoff. But it also might have the most explosive offense, particularly with Dillon Johnson heating up down the stretch. Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation’s scariest passing offense with an array of NFL-caliber receivers. The only comparable offense to Washington’s on Texas’ schedule was Oklahoma, which beat Texas 34-30. There should be plenty of exciting offense with Kalen DeBoer and Steve Sarkisian calling the plays, and I’ll take the better — and healthier — offense to win.

Nick Musial: Texas 38, Washington 33

Don’t expect much defense in this one, as Washington’s aerial attack figures to hum against a susceptible Texas secondary. On the flip side, give Steve Sarkisian ample time to scheme up a game plan against a good, but not great Washington defense, and Texas won’t have much trouble moving up and down the field. The first team to 35 takes this one, but ultimately, Texas’ defensive line throws Michael Penix Jr. off just enough to force a timely turnover to send the Longhorns back to the National Championship.

Vinnie Iyer: Washington 38, Texas 34

Like the legend of the Penix, all ends with beginnings. The Huskies will be up all night for good fun with Michael Penix Jr., and they don’t need to get lucky to beat the Longhorns. Quinn Ewers will steer Texas to some explosive offense in what will be a classic shootout. Arch Manning will continue to wonder while he’s sitting on the bench again as a freshman despite being a potential transcendent talent with unbeatable pedigree. Vince Young isn’t walking through that door, however, and the CFP gods simply cannot allow Steve Sarkisian to play for a natty. On the other sideline, his name might be Kalen DeBoer, but his team is exciting and needs to plant a final flag for the Pac-12 before that conference no longer exists to be the victim of blatant Southeastern and Midwestern bias just because a few people can’t stay up late to watch a few extra games.”