College Football’s Booming NIL Business and Its Impact on the NFL Draft

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As the unknown blankets college football with more questions than answers, a new era of excitement and longevity appears to be taking shape.

With no meaningful football games of any kind taking place, all eyes are Indianapolis for the NFL combine—a rare intersection where pro football fans and college football fans collide.

Indeed, it’s stopwatch season. That part isn’t new. The themes that have encompassed the NFL combine since its inception are still true today: jump high and long, run fast, lift much.

But the makeup of this specific event is taking on a much different feel, and the NFL has college football to thank for that.

A grand total of 58 underclassmen declared for the NFL draft in 2024, making it the smallest pool of underclassmen to declare in more than a decade. For some further clarity, 128 players—more than double the number this year—declared in 2021. Last year, 82 players decided to leave their schools early.

There are a slew of factors, including a COVID-shortened season and the extra year of eligibility that was granted, that have played a role in this recent trend. Although no trend has a greater impact on this transition more than NIL (Name, Image and Likeness).

In a matter of 18 months, it became normal for players to be “legally” compensated to play college football. The implementation of NIL, of course, has come without significant guidance. The courts have gotten involved. Teams and collectives have largely been able to do as they please in this new rule-less universe.

The catalyst for this glorious mayhem has been the transfer portal, which is now its own football universe. The lack of guidance coupled with the desire to win have created free agency in college football.

It has been, well, a magnificent mess.

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It’s also been confusing. Essentially, coaches must recruit their roster each year. Players come and go not long after they become known by a fanbase. The players have been given an opportunity to maximize their value, and that part has been a long time coming. But the impact on the sport has come with mixed results.

Despite the unknowns and the regular chaos, this movement has had an undeniable impact on the sport. With money being handed out, players are staying longer. And the regular yearly exodus of talent has slowed.

For further proof of this trend, look no further than this past season. Quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix all began their careers in other places. They could have declared for the draft last season, although they chose to come back for another year.

Those decisions turned out to be brilliant ones, regardless of where each player is drafted next month. Each elevated their play and profile with another year of seasoning. And the sport was much better off for it.

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While it would be unfair to assume that money made this decision for them, it’s not unreasonable to say that NIL made a tough decision easier. It incentivized each player to prolong their college football careers.

The end result was well over 100 combined touchdowns, a Heisman and a trip to the national championship. And these were just a handful of players who decided to make this choice.

This logic, of course, has its limits. Quarterback Caleb Williams didn’t stay around for another season at USC. Neither did Marvin Harrison Jr. at Ohio State. Or Drake Maye at North Carolina.

Star underclassmen with a likely placement in or around the top 10 of a given draft are still likely to leave. NIL, while powerful, still doesn’t come close to that second NFL contract. For many of these players, that allure will be too much to pass up.

But for the players struggling with the decision, the NIL is a life raft. The risk of staying in school to develop feels a lot less risky when you’re paid a small fortune to do so. And with money flooding into the sport at an unbelievable rate, great players with untapped potential will likely consider their options a little longer.

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Oh, and the players that stayed longer, at least in some high-profile instances, are seeing the benefits of doing so.

For all the madness that NIL has brought, it has gifted college football a jolt of energy and star power. While some sort of structure is clearly needed sometime soon, better players, at least in a few small sample sizes, are extending their stays.

It hasn’t come at a cost. This much is clear.

This a perplexing time to be a fan as the sport moves without a true direction. But this past season provided a glimpse of what could become the norm, thanks to a large infusion of cash flowing freely through it all, and that glimpse clearly caught the eyes of more than just the fans.