Complete 2024 NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions and Key Player Matchups

Complete 2024 NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions and Key Player Matchups0 of 15

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With the 2023-24 NBA regular season and play-in tournament complete, the real fireworks can begin.

The 2024 playoffs offer a collection of both young teams hungry to make their mark on the league and veteran squads eager to show they still belong. There’s plenty of star power to go around with LeBron James, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Luka Dončić and others as well.

It’s time to go round by round to make predictions for all 15 playoff series, highlighting key player matchups along the way.

East Quarterfinals: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Orlando Magic1 of 15

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This should be a low-scoring, defensive battle of a series between two young teams looking to establish themselves as powers in the Eastern Conference.

Cleveland is hoping to shake off its pitiful showing in last year’s postseason in which it lost in five games to the New York Knicks despite being the No. 4 seed and possessing home-court advantage. Beginning the series in Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse is important as Orlando was just 18-23 on the road.

With Jalen Suggs doing his best to stop Donovan Mitchell (who says he’s 100 percent healthy after missing 16 of the past 26 games to a bad knee), Darius Garland will be relied on to help break down an elite Magic defense. Garland averaged 26.7 points and 8.0 assists in three games against Orlando this season and will need to post similar numbers for the Cavs to win.

Key Matchup: Paolo Banchero vs. Evan Mobley

Mitchell is the best player in this series but Banchero may not be far behind. The second-year forward and first-time All-Star is the heart and soul of a Magic offense that lives and dies by his production. Banchero shot 49.3 percent overall and 40.7 percent from three in 46 wins this season compared to just 41.0 percent from the field and 27.4 percent from deep in 34 losses.

Mobley has struggled at times against bigger, stronger forwards and will have to do his best to limit quality looks by Banchero. Mobley has shot more threes as of late (11 makes in his last 12 games at 45.8 percent accuracy), with his floor-spacing important for Mitchell and Garland to drive.

Prediction: Cavs in 7

Cleveland struggled down the stretch with Mitchell in and out of the lineup. If he’s truly healthy, the Cavs have a notable playoff experience advantage over the young Magic and should eventually advance after a long series.

East Quarterfinals: (3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Indiana Pacers2 of 15

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The Bucks’ fall from the No. 2 seed to the No. 3 seed turned out to be a blessing, as they drew a more favorable matchup with the Indiana Pacers while dodging the Philadelphia 76ers.

The bad news? If Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, it may not matter who the opponent is.

The two-time MVP is expected to miss the beginning of this series with a calf strain, an injury that could hold him out for two to four weeks, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium. Damian Lillard has proven capable of carrying a team in the playoffs, but the 33-year-old point guard is dealing with lingering groin and abductor injuries himself.

Even a healthy Bucks team struggled earlier in the season against Indiana. This version may not even have a chance.

Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Tyrese Haliburton

As much as we’d love to see an Antetokounmpo-Pascal Siakam matchup, a Lillard (if healthy) and Haliburton floor general duel is almost as good.

Halliburton’s midseason shooting slump has subsided (38.8 percent from three over his last 12 games), and he remains one of the best passers in the NBA who should be hungry in his first playoff appearance.

Prediction: Pacers in 6

Indiana’s once-porous defense has become far more respectable since the All-Star break (18th overall compared to 17th for the Bucks), while its offense has remained elite (fourth overall since the break).

If Antetokounmpo can’t go and Lillard isn’t close to 100 percent, this could be a quick series.

East Quarterfinals: (2) New York Knicks vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers3 of 15

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This could be the best series of the entire first round.

The 76ers are 31-8 with a healthy Joel Embiid this season. The Knicks were 20-3 with OG Anunoby in the lineup. Something will have to give.

The health of Embiid may have the biggest impact on this series. Although he returned a few weeks ago following a meniscus injury, Embiid doesn’t resemble his MVP self quite yet. A 6-of-17 shooting performance for 23 points in the opening play-in game against the Miami Heat proved that. The center combination of Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson should do a good job of contesting Embiid as well.

New York has been trying to build chemistry on the fly this season with Julius Randle out due to shoulder surgery and the trade additions of Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks. Embiid is still adjusting to new teammates (Buddy Hield, Kyle Lowry) in his return to the lineup, too.

Key Matchup: Jalen Brunson vs. Tyrese Maxey

Embiid is the biggest individual player to watch here, but the Brunson-Maxey duel could decide the series.

Any questions about whether Brunson can be the alpha of a championship-level team should have been answered by now. The All-Star guard averaged 37.8 points and 8.3 assists over his final 10 games of the regular season with New York winning six of its last seven contests.

Maxey will have to be the guy for Philly some nights in this series if Embiid looks like he did against the Heat and doesn’t have De’Anthony Melton’s defense to help take the pressure off on the other end. If he can outscore Brunson in the series (or at least keep it close), the 76ers will have a strong chance.

Prediction: Knicks in 7

The Sixers’ new starting five of Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr., Tobias Harris and Embiid played just 35 total possessions together during the regular season. Asking this freshly assembled group to win a playoff series is a lot, even if Embiid and Maxey look like All-Stars.

Brunson is going to win a close game or two in this series with his fearlessness and shot-making down the stretch. He’s becoming one of the NBA’s elite closers and averaged 27.8 points in the playoffs last year.

East Quarterfinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Miami Heat4 of 15

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This version of Celtics-Heat is going to look much different from a year ago.

A healthy Jimmy Butler would have made for an interesting series. Unfortunately, an MCL injury suffered during the first quarter of Miami’s play-in game against the Philadelphia 76ers will have Butler sidelined for several weeks.

Terry Rozier’s neck injury also puts a damper on this series, as he missed the entire play-in tournament as well as the end of the regular season. As good as Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jacquez Jr. and others are, Miami is down too many bodies against this mighty Celtics team.

Key Matchup: Kristaps Porziņģis vs. Bam Adebayo

Adebayo is the Heat’s most important player with Butler sidelined. The anchor of the team’s defense, it’s best rebounder and a talented passer, Adebayo will need to fill in all the gaps in Butler’s absence while also scoring 20-plus points per game.

Porziņģis’ three-point shooting is going to be needed in this series, pulling Adebayo out of the paint and stretching Miami’s 5th-ranked defense thin. In three games against the Heat this season, Porziņģis went 7-of-14 (50 percent) from deep.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

Miami just doesn’t have the firepower to make this a series with injuries to both Butler and Rozier. Boston may slip up one game, but overall this shouldn’t go more than five.

West Quarterfinals: (4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Dallas Mavericks5 of 15

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Every year the health of the Clippers’ stars seems to dictate their playoff success or failure. This season is no different, as Kawhi Leonard has yet to play in April while battling a knee injury that he received an injection for according to Shams Charania and Mark Puleo of The Athletic.

The team is still preparing for Leonard to play in the series.

Los Angeles will need its All-Star forward to knock off a red-hot Mavs team that went an NBA-best 12-3 over its last 15 games. These franchises are meeting in the playoffs for the third time in five seasons. Mavs star Kyrie Irving and Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue won a championship together with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Key Matchup: Luka Dončić vs. Paul George

Dončić has led the NBA in playoff scoring average twice in his three playoff runs and ranks second all-time only behind Michael Jordan (32.5 points per game compared to Jordan’s 33.5). Slowing him down will be a team effort, although George may draw a lot of one-on-one matchups.

The 33-year-old is still a good defender who can use his 6’8″ frame to bother Dončić into taking tough shots. This is a lot to ask of George, however, especially since Los Angeles may need his scoring even more if Leonard has to miss a game or more.

Prediction: Mavericks in 6

We don’t know how Leonard will look even if he can return for Game 1. After not playing for three weeks, there will certainly be some rust.

Trusting James Harden in the playoffs is a tough ask, while Dončić and Irving have saved some of their best basketball for the postseason.

Dallas will ride a hot end of the regular season into the second round.

West Quarterfinals: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (6) Phoenix Suns6 of 15

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If the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers aren’t the best first-round series of the 2024 playoffs, Suns-Wolves very well could be.

A first-round exit would be a failure of a season for both franchises given Minnesota’s spot at the top of the West standings nearly all season and Phoenix’s going all-in with the trade for Bradley Beal. Both teams are headed toward the second apron this offseason, meaning the ways of upgrading the rosters from here on out will be extremely limited.

It’s a clash of offense vs. defense, as the Suns’ Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Beal had an offensive rating of 123.3 when sharing the floor (95th percentile). Minnesota’s defense was easily the best in the league with a 108.4 rating, headlined by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Rudy Gobert.

Key Matchup: Anthony Edwards vs. Devin Booker

Edwards and Booker have both been brilliant in their early postseason careers with nearly identical scoring averages (Edwards at 28.1 points per game, Booker at 28.0). Both figures rank in the top eight in NBA playoff history.

Edwards was brilliant in the first round against the Denver Nuggets a season ago and will need another big-time performance to keep pace with Booker, Durant, Beal and company. Booker has to play both scorer and playmaker, a role he began last postseason when Chris Paul suffered a groin injury in the second round vs. Denver.

Prediction: Wolves in 7

Assuming Minnesota’s defense remains elite, the return of Karl-Anthony Towns combined with the steady play of Mike Conley and Edwards going superhuman at times will eventually knock the Suns out.

West Quarterfinals: (2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers7 of 15

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The Lakers are 0-8 in their most recent meetings against the Nuggets, but this is an improved version of the team that got swept by Denver a year ago.

Los Angeles’ current starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James and Anthony Davis posted an 18-6 record overall this season, and the return of Gabe Vincent gives this team a playoff-tested point guard off the bench.

The Lakers can’t bully-ball these Nuggets with their big frontcourt, however, and Denver certainly has the mental advantage given how last postseason went.

Key Matchup: Nikola Jokić vs. Anthony Davis

We’ll see if Lakers head coach Darvin Ham uses Davis in one-on-one matchups against the two-time MVP or if he plays more of a free safety role with Hachimura drawing the assignment again.

Of course, it may not matter as Jokić has dominated the Lakers no matter who stands in his way. A perfect 3-0 regular season with Jokić putting up 29.3 points, 12.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists on 55.2 percent shooting against the Lakers will carry over now.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

This won’t be a sweep like last year, but Denver will once again come away the victors. Even Davis is no match for Jokić, the NBA’s best player who’s firmly in his prime. A long offseason (and potential free agency for James) awaits the Lakers.

West Quarterfinals: (1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans8 of 15

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The Thunder finished the season on a five-game win streak to plant their flag at the top of the Western Conference standings. A No. 1 seed was important as it guaranteed OKC homecourt advantage at least until the NBA Finals after they went 33-8 overall.

OKC has a significant rest advantage here, as the Thunder get six full days off while New Orleans only gets one after having to go through both games of the play-in tournament.

Key Matchup: Jalen Williams vs. Brandon Ingram

Zion Williamson won’t even be reevaluated for another two weeks due to a hamstring injury suffered during the play-in loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, meaning Ingram becomes the most important player for New Orleans. The 26-year-old is still working his way back from a knee injury that caused him to miss 12 of his final 13 regular season games.

Williams has established himself as an important secondary scorer for the Thunder behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and should see defensive minutes on both Ingram and Trey Murphy III. If Gilgeous-Alexander struggles against New Orleans like he did in the regular season (25.0 points on 44.3 percent shooting and 25.0 percent from three) then the play of Williams becomes even more crucial.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

OKC may be young, but it’s important to remember that Gilgeous-Alexander is in his sixth season and is making his third trip to the playoffs. There’s enough experience here from their alpha to propel the Thunder into the next round rather easily.

East Semifinals: (2) New York Knicks Vs. (6) Indiana Pacers9 of 15

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Not seeing either the Milwaukee Bucks or Philadelphia 76ers make it to Round 2 in the East feels wrong, although the Knicks and Pacers have earned their spots in the conference semifinals.

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Jalen Brunson will be a lot of fun, with both point guards trying to dictate the speed of the game. Indiana ranked second in the NBA in pace of play this season (102.2) while the Knicks were dead last (95.9).

After battling against Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and company, this round actually gets a little easier for the Knicks. Indiana is a solid team, but it is not ready to win multiple playoffs rounds just yet.

Key Matchup: Pascal Siakam vs. OG Anunoby

This is the battle of former Toronto Raptors as Anunoby and Siakam share a court for the first time since being teammates last December. The Pacers are a respectable 23-18 with Siakam in the lineup, although a far cry from New York’s 20-3 mark with Anunoby.

In one-on-one matchups, Siakam has a notable size advantage, although perhaps no player in the league knows his tendencies better than Anunoby.

Prediction: Knicks in 5

Indiana may not even have made it out of the first round had it faced a healthy Milwaukee Bucks team. New York, however, has found an identity of defense and toughness that it can hang its hat on and help limit the Pacers offense.

Brunson has another big playoff series as the Knicks advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the 1999-2000 season.

East Semifinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (4) Cleveland Cavaliers10 of 15

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The Cavs choosing to empty their bench against the Charlotte Hornets in Game 82 of the regular season landed them on Boston’s side of the bracket. Avoiding the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 1 was nice, but the Celtics are a far better team all the way around.

Cleveland has the benefit of playing without expectations here. It already won a playoff series, so the improvement over last season is there. All the pressure is on the Celtics to take care of business, and the Cavs even beat Boston in March without Donovan Mitchell.

Although just a few spots away from each other in the East standings, the Cavs finished 16 games behind the Celtics, or the same difference between Cleveland and the 32-50, 11th-seeded Brooklyn Nets. The gap isn’t particularly close.

Key Matchup: Donovan Mitchell vs. Derrick White

Donovan Mitchell played well against an elite Boston backcourt this season (30.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists on 50.0 percent shooting in two games) and will have the ball in his hands the majority of the time for the Cavs.

White’s raw offensive numbers won’t come close to that of Mitchell’s, although his ability to slow down Cleveland’s All-Star guard will be one of the major keys to the series.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

These two teams just aren’t on the same talent level right now. Boston was an NBA-best 21-6 after the All-Star break while Cleveland slumped to 12-17.

Tatum and Jaylen Brown began soaking up their playoff experience together against these Cavs back in 2018 and should be eager to show off how much each has improved since then. This has the potential to be an ugly series overall.

West Semifinals: (2) Denver Nuggets vs. (3) Minnesota Timberwolves11 of 15

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The Wolves should be hungry for a chance at revenge against these Nuggets, the team that knocked them out of the first round of the playoffs a year ago.

Minnesota is vastly improved from last season and finished just a single game behind the defending champs while going 2-2 against them this year. Karl-Anthony Towns was healthy for just one of those contests, giving the Wolves even more optimism heading into this rematch.

Rudy Gobert is still the best defensive center in the game, but even he’s been rendered helpless against Nikola Jokić. In four games against the Wolves this season Jokić has averaged 33.3 points and 11.8 rebounds while shooting 58.4 percent overall and 40.0 percent from three.

Key Matchup: Jamal Murray vs. Mike Conley

Conley won’t grab a lot of the headlines in this series, but it’s been his steady play over the last 1.5 seasons that’s helped transform Minnesota into a winner. He put up 12.0 points, 6.4 assists and shot 45.5 percent from three against Denver in the playoffs last season and is convinced no one wants to win more than him at this stage of his career.

Minnesota’s defensive attention will primarily be on Jokić given his success against them this season. This means more responsibility for Murray, who’s been a phenomenal postseason player throughout his career. With Conley’s defense slipping at age 36, Murray needs to take advantage of this matchup and try to wear his opponent out.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

Despite Conley’s urgency, the Nuggets are still the better overall team that possesses more previous playoff success. Gobert not being able to slow down Jokić is a bad sign for the Wolves, a trend that will continue in this series.

West Semifinals: (1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Dallas Mavericks12 of 15

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Despite the difference in seeding this projects to be an extremely close series.

OKC’s 3-1 regular-season series advantage should come with a big asterisk, as two of their wins came when Luka Dončić didn’t play. The only contest featuring both Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving ended in a 146-111 beatdown of the Thunder on Feb. 10.

The team that controls the glass could have a big impact on this series, as Dallas and Oklahoma City were almost equally bad at rebounding the ball this season. The Mavs ranked 26th in total rebound percentage (48.5 percent) while the Thunder were even worse at 28th overall (48.4 percent).

Key Matchup: Luka Dončić vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

A meeting of two players who should both finish in the top three in MVP voting, Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander averaged a combined 64 points per game this season.

Dončić did his best to carve up the OKC defense, averaging 34.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 13.5 assists in his two games against the Thunder this season. Gilgeous-Alexander was actually held in check, as his 22.0 points per game vs. Dallas was his second-lowest average against any team this year (17.5 vs. Milwaukee).

Prediction: Thunder in 6

Gilgeous-Alexander is simply too good to not increase his regular-season scoring numbers, and the Thunder are the deeper overall team. Chet Holmgren’s rim protection should help keep Dončić and Kyrie Irving from getting easy looks at the rim, and we trust Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault in this series more than Jason Kidd. OKC moves on.

East Finals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (2) New York Knicks13 of 15

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It’s been exactly 50 years since the Knicks and Celtics have met in the Eastern Conference Finals, when John Havlicek led Boston to a 4-1 series win over Walt Frazier and the Knicks in 1974.

This meeting is long overdue.

Both these current versions are lethal on both sides of the ball. Both ranked in the top five in rebounding this season.

Boston won the first four meetings, although New York knocked off the Celtics in the final week of the regular season in OG Anunoby’s only appearance in this series. Boston’s starters combined to go 5-of-22 (22.7 percent) from three in their April 11 loss.

Key Matchup: Jaylen Brown vs. Josh Hart

Anunoby will see a lot of time on Jayson Tatum, which means Brown will be called upon for some extra offensive duties. The Knicks did a good job limiting his impact during the regular season, with Brown averaging 19.0 points on 25.0 percent shooting from three.

Hart will likely guard Brown for much of the series and can destroy an opponent’s soul with his nonstop motor, rebounding prowess and timely shot-making.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

The Knicks had a tremendous season making it this far without Julius Randle, but this is still a Celtics team that finished 14 games ahead of them in the final standings. A backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White is built to neutralize someone like Jalen Brunson, and Boston knows anything less than a trip to the Finals is a failure.

West Finals: (1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (2) Denver Nuggets14 of 15

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The Nuggets are still the kings of the Western Conference, although the Thunder are the team best positioned with young talent and trade assets to take over the throne.

It’s a clash of present vs. future as Denver will have to open on the road in the playoffs for the first time since 2022.

OKC needs more from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 26.5 points on 44.9 percent shooting against the Nuggets in four regular-season games. The Thunder went 3-1 in these contests, including handing the Nuggets two of their eight total home losses this year. Both teams were elite at home overall (33-8, second-best only behind the Boston Celtics).

Key Matchup: Nikola Jokić vs. Chet Holmgren

These two players are far different from each other, although both had success against the opposing team this season.

Jokić has a 90-pound advantage over Holmgren and shot 70.7 percent against the Thunder in their four meetings. Only averaging 23.7 points, Jokić has proven he can increase this output if needed given his efficiency.

Holmgren’s outside shooting and athleticism will test Jokić defensively, as the rookie center averaged 19.5 points and shot 56.3 percent from three against the Nuggets in 2023-24.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7

This will be the series where we realize that OKC is about to take over the NBA. Going from losing in the play-in tournament to making the conference finals is a huge leap, and one that Thunder fans should be proud of and excited about for the future.

For now, Denver is still the better overall team that should control the glass and use its title experience to its advantage.

NBA Finals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (2) Denver Nuggets15 of 15

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After combining for a whopping 121 wins, Nuggets-Celtics could be one of the best Finals in recent memory.

Denver was the only team to beat the Celtics multiple times this season (2-0) without Boston registering at least one win in the series. The Celtics will get home-court advantage in the Finals, however, and were an NBA-best 37-4 at home.

Boston was also easily the best team in the league with a 64-18 record and a net rating that more than doubled that of Denver (plus-11.7 compared to plus-5.5).

Still, trusting the Celtics in big moments has hurt us before. This is still a team that blew a 2-1 lead in the 2022 NBA Finals to the Golden State Warriors, couldn’t make it past the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat in last year’s playoffs and lost in the quarterfinals of the inaugural In-Season Tournament.

Denver didn’t have as good of a regular season, but we’ve seen it step up on the largest of stages.

Key Matchup: Jayson Tatum vs. Nikola Jokić

Tatum and Jokić aren’t going to defend each other very often in this series, but both superstars will be given the credit in wins and criticism in losses.

Jokić is the current face of the NBA and the league’s best player with a Finals MVP to prove it. He’s where Tatum wants to be and could soon be should Boston win the 2024 title.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7

As much as we want to pick Boston, Denver has looked better in their head-to-head meetings this season and has the title experience advantage. Jokić is about to win his third MVP and will take another step in cementing himself as one of the best players of all time with a second Finals MVP and championship ring here.