Cowboys analytics roundup: Reality sets in after tough day against the Saints
Cowboys fans have seemingly lived out a full seasonâs worth of narratives in the span of just a week. The season opening win over the Browns had everyone thinking the defense was finally fixed under Mike Zimmer and that this might be the year things are different, only to get picked apart defensively by Derek Carr in Dallas a week later in a performance eerily reminiscent of the Cowboysâ playoff collapse from last season.
It can be difficult to not fall prey to the mood swings that come from watching your team blow someone out and then get blown out, but advanced data can help somewhat. Thatâs where the weekly analytics roundup comes into play, although all DVOA-related grades do not currently adjust for quality of opponent; that will begin to kick in after a few more games have been played. Nevertheless, letâs see where the Cowboys stand two weeks in.
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
DVOA
DVOA Rank
DVOA Rank Previous Rank
DAVE
DAVE Rank
DVOA
DVOA Rank
DVOA Rank Previous Rank
DAVE
DAVE Rank
Offense
-11.2%
24th
22nd
0.7%
17th
Defense
0.4%
16th
3rd
-6.0%
3rd
Special Teams
20.4%
1st
1st
3.2%
1st
Overall
8.7%
14th
3rd
9.9%
9th
Woof. How the mighty have fallen, indeed. The offense got a little bit worse this week, though much of that is due to the nature of playing from behind. The defense, however, had a massive dropoff in efficiency. A week ago, we were talking about how unprecedented their -53.6% grade was, and just one week later theyâre sitting at 0.4%.
As a team, the Cowboys sit at 14th in total efficiency, just barely in the top half of the league. It should be noted that the Saints sit at the top of the DVOA rankings with a whopping 91.2% grade, while the Seahawks are holding a distant second at 49.9%. Maybe the Saints really are that good?
2024 NFL Team Tiers, Weeks 1-2, courtesy of rbsdm.com
Speaking of the Saints, theyâre in a league of their own according to the EPA-based team tiers as well. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are not in their own league, but they are in some poor company. Namely, a Dolphins team that just lost their quarterback for at least four games.
Dallas is also near the Titans, Raiders, and Browns in these team tiers, which is not where you want to be. If thereâs any solace to be had in looking at this chart, itâs that the rest of the NFC East is off to a terrible start as well.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
Grade
Rank
Grade
Rank
Offensive DVOA
-11.2%
24th
Pass DVOA
-9.1%
27th
Run DVOA
0.2%
15th
EPA/Play
-0.133
24th
EPA/Dropback
-0.191
27th
EPA/Rush
-0.026
10th
Thereâs no way to sugarcoat it: this offense is not very good right now. Thereâs also no getting around the fact that theyâve faced two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Browns and Saints. Thatâs a murdererâs row of a start to the season, and very few offenses would look good against that schedule.
The odd thing is that the Cowboys actually scored a lot in the first half, relative to what the Saints defense usually gives up. They were hurt in efficiency metrics for too many drives ending in field goals and, in the second half, too many drives stalling out because they were forced to become one-dimensional with such a large deficit. None of this is to say that there isnât reason for concern, but these numbers are likely to improve in the coming weeks.
Dak Prescott Efficiency
Grade
Rank
Grade
Rank
QBR
42.8
22nd
EPA/play
-0.138
26th
CPOE
-2.3
21st
EPA+CPOE Composite
0.011
25th
Success Rate
41.7%
23rd
Speaking of numbers that are likely to improve – Dak Prescott threw two picks in this game, but he actually played well. One of those interceptions came as a result of his receiver falling down, while the second one came so late in an already-decided game that it made no discernible impact on the outcome of the game.
Having said all that, Prescott cannot be putting up these numbers in the efficiency categories when heâs making $60 million a year. He was noticeably better against New Orleans than he was in Cleveland, but the quarterback needs to make a much bigger jump starting now.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
Grade
Rank
Grade
Rank
Pressure Rate
15.4%
11th
Adjusted Sack Rate
7.6%
16th
Pass Block Win Rate
66%
10th
Run Block Win Rate
74%
9th
Adjusted Line Yards
4.45
15th
It was not the best day for the Cowboys offensive line. Their pair of tackles gave up 10 pressures between the two of them, with both Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele allowing a sack. Cooper Beebe also gave up a sack on his lone pressure. All five starting linemen allowed at least one pressure. All in all, it was a really tough day.
The run blocking wasnât much better. There werenât many holes being opened up for the running backs in this game, though Dallas went away from the run early on anyway. On paper, this line should be a top 10 run blocking unit, but they havenât shown it yet.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
Grade
Rank
Grade
Rank
Defensive DVOA
0.4%
16th
Pass Defense DVOA
-20.2%
7th
Run Defense DVOA
25.6%
31st
Pass Rush Win Rate
39%
21st
Run Stop Win Rate
31%
19th
EPA/Play
0.006
20th
EPA/Dropback Allowed
-0.088
11th
EPA/Rush Allowed
0.148
32nd
How bad was this game for the Dallas defense? If you had a game like this on the College Football 25 video game, youâd smash your controller and proclaim the AI was far too unrealistic. Thatâs how terrible this week was for Mike Zimmerâs unit.
A week ago, the Cowboys were 10th in run defense DVOA, 18th in EPA/rush, and third in run stop win rate. Now theyâre 31st, 32nd, and 19th, respectively. Those are all dramatic drops down the leaderboards. The secondary remains in a solid spot, relatively speaking, but this was a historically awful performance against the run.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
Targets
Completions
Completion Rate
Passer Rating Allowed
ADOT When Targeted
Air Yards Allowed
Yards After Catch
Targets
Completions
Completion Rate
Passer Rating Allowed
ADOT When Targeted
Air Yards Allowed
Yards After Catch
Trevon Diggs
10
7
70.0%
46.7
8.7
12
62
Caelen Carson
11
7
63.6%
115.7
10.7
63
17
Jourdan Lewis
8
5
62.5%
68.2
4.9
13
14
Malik Hooker
5
3
60.0%
69.6
5.8
9
12
Donovan Wilson
2
1
50.0%
95.8
30.5
50
20
DeMarvion Overshown
9
9
100.0%
104.6
2.3
21
61
Eric Kendricks
6
2
33.3%
72.2
2.2
-1
62
Damone Clark
2
1
50.0%
62.5
3.5
4
5
As mentioned, the secondary wasnât terrible in this game. They gave up two big passing plays to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed that were the result of poor discipline in coverage, as well as a screen pass that perfectly baited Eric Kendricks. Other than those three plays, all of which were big gains, the secondary played relatively well.
Of course, it helps that Carr only dropped back 18 times in the game, and that was because the ground attack never once faced any resistance. Jourdan Lewis led all defensive backs in targets with just three, and he only allowed one reception. The truth is this game didnât produce much meaningful analysis for the pass coverage because it was so wonky on the run/pass splits. The run defense remains the number one concern in Dallas right now.
