Cowboys player projections for Washington game call for more of same on offense

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of a game in which Cooper Rush threw for 354 yards, the 50th game in which a quarterback eclipsed 350 in franchise history. Rush’s performance on Monday night came as the Cowboys were fighting for their lives against the Houston Texans, and they failed in pretty spectacular fashion. They are expected to be in for a similar battle this week on the road against the Washington Commanders, and if former friend Dan Quinn has anything to do with it, that will certainly be the case.

Sunday offers the first time that Quinn gets to coordinate a defense against the Cowboys since running theirs for three seasons, and it feels like a rather unfair fight. Dallas is down Dak Prescott, maybe Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson, plus possibly some linemen, and any semblance of a run game. That won’t necessarily lead to Quinn (or anyone) showing any mercy, though.

NFL models don’t necessarily factor in things like this (narrative-driven elements), but they do measure who teams are and at what points in time that they are at them. Every week we take a look at projections for the Cowboys from NFL Pro and it will in no way shock you to learn that they underestimated Rush’s performance last week.

Projected Cooper Rush vs. Houston: 207.2 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1 INT, 12.5 rush yards
Actual: 354 yards, 1 pass TD, 1 INT, 2 rush yards

Projected Rico Dowdle vs. Houston: 44.2 yards, 0.3 rush TD, 2 rec, 14.4 rec yards, 0.1 rec TD
Actual: 28 yards, 0 TD, 2 rec, 6 rec yards

Projected CeeDee Lamb vs. Houston: 6.1 rec, 58.5 yards, 0.4 TD
Actual: 8 rec, 93 yards

Projected Jalen Tolbert vs. Houston: 2.9 rec, 29.3 yards, 0.2 TD
Actual: 2 rec, 21 yards

Projected Jake Ferguson vs. Houston: 3.8 rec, 39.9 rec yards, 0.3 TD
Actual: 1 rec, 11 yards

It should be noted that Jake Ferguson left Monday’s game early with a concussion so it’s not like he underdelivered on his projection. Sometimes unexpected things happen.

But on the subject of expectations, what are they for Sunday against Washington?

More of the same, according to NFL Pro.

If you are into these types of things for fantasy or props-related purposes, then the safest one is probably CeeDee Lamb. It hurts less to be wrong when you make a bet on the most dependable of the group which is sort of the logic here.

On the other side of things, any over on receiving from Washington running backs is a solid option to take. NFL Pro’s notes also indicated that Dallas is allowing 12.7 yards after the catch per reception to opposing running backs this season. This is the highest figure allowed by a defense in this sense since 2016. So yea, take Austin Ekeler.

If you are curious what other sort of advantages that Washington may have the answer is almost literally all of them according to the model.

This is how things have been going as of late and the results have generally reflected accuracy from the model in question. It’s one of those years.