Don’t Be Fooled By These Early 2024 MLB Trends
Zachary D. RymerMay 20, 2024Don’t Be Fooled by These Early 2024 MLB Trends 0 of 8
Mike Stobe/Getty Images
With a quarter of the 2024 MLB season in the books, it’s safe to say that we’re out of small-sample-size territory. Things that are happening are getting more real by the day.
Still, anyone who looks at the first 25 percent of the season as a guidebook for the next 75 percent does so at their own peril.
Not everything is going to last, after all, and I want to zero in on eight early trends that don’t pass the smell test. This is a rain-on-parade exercise for the most part, and it concerns four individual players, three teams and, to wrap up, the entire league.
Let’s start in Milwaukee, specifically with one of the hottest hitters in MLB.
William Contreras Is Not Going to Bat .3501 of 8
William ContrerasStacy Revere/Getty Images
William Contreras is currently batting “just” .341, to be fair, but his average was .359 as recently as Friday and all sorts of metrics back up that his hot hitting is the real deal.
It’s not just that his contact quality metrics pass muster, particularly a 58.9 hard-hit percentage that ranks in the 98th percentile. The Milwaukee Brewers’ 26-year-old catcher also comes off looking very good in Statcast’s new bat tracking figures.
Milwaukee Brewers @BrewersWilliam Contreras:
đ” 9-game hit streak
đ” 23-game on-base streak
đ” Reached base in 40 of 43 games
đ” 1st in NL in runs
đ” 2nd in average
Best catcher in baseball. pic.twitter.com/8t486sEGiK
The thing about batting .350, though, is that it’s next to impossible to do in modern times. Josh Hamilton did it in 2010, but it didn’t happen again in a full 162-game season until Luis Arraez hit .354 just last year.
Instances of catchers hitting over .350 are rarer still. We’re talking only 11 times in all of MLB history, and the fact that there are guys named “Bubbles” and “Gabby” on that list should give it away that we’re mostly talking about ancient history.
Also, Contreras maintaining a .401 batting average on balls in play seems…unlikely, to say the least. Such figures are rare in general and unheard of for catchers, for whom Jorge Posada’s .386 BABIP from 2007 is the all-time high mark.
Elly De La Cruz Is Not Going to Steal 100 Bases2 of 8
Elly De La CruzBrian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
To be fair, Elly De La Cruz isn’t on pace to steal 100 bases. With 30 in his first 47 games, the actual number is 103.
At this rate, the Cincinnati Reds’ 22-year-old shortstop would become only the 13th player ever to cross the 100-stolen base threshold. And he would be the first to do it since Vince Coleman did it in three straight years between 1985, 1986 and 1987.
But to steal bases, one must first get on base. That’s where De La Cruz is losing steam. He had a .419 OBP through 26 games but has since slipped to a .273 OBP over his last 21 games. It’s as if it’s hard to maintain an OBP when you’re running a 32.6 strikeout percentage.
Granted, Coleman only got on base at a .329 clip as he was swiping 100 bags annually in the late 1980s. And that was in an era when the league-wide caught-stealing rate was in the low 30s. In 2024, it’s just 21.1 percent.
But whereas Coleman typically slugged in the low .300s, De La Cruz is slugging .476. He’s thus going beyond first base much more often when he gets a hit. As long as that remains the case, he’s only going to have so many stolen base opportunities.
Shohei Ohtani Isn’t Going to Go 40-40-403 of 8
Shohei OhtaniRonald Martinez/Getty Images
This one actually feels like going out on a limb, specifically for two reasons:
As Alfonso Soriano showed in 2006, a season with 40 doubles, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases is indeed possible.If anyone is going to do it, why not Shohei Ohtani in 2024?To the latter point, it turns out Ohtani as a full-time hitter is basically unstoppable. He’s leading MLB with a 1.080 OPS thus far in his first year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s technically on pace for 53 doubles, 43 homers and 36 stolen bases.
Los Angeles Dodgers @DodgersOffense was a 10 tonight. pic.twitter.com/QeGHYy65QA
But like with De La Cruz, the frequency with which Ohtani bypasses first base when he gets hits is a solid reason to be skeptical about how many bases he’ll steal. And the doubles, meanwhile, are already drying up.
He has 16 for the season, but only two in his last 21 games. Part of that is what was merely gap power turning into over-the-fence power. Another part of it is his walk rate trending up as he gets more dangerous.
In their own way, neither bodes well for further double dominance. Ohtani may thus have to settle for a mere 30-30-30 season, and [insert extreme sarcasm here] what a shame that would be.
Gunnar Henderson Isn’t Going to Lead MLB in Home Runs4 of 8
Gunnar HendersonG Fiume/Getty Images
This, too, is one that even I’m not entirely convinced by.
Gunnar Henderson is tied with Kyle Tucker for the league lead with 15 home runs, and underneath the hood are improved figures for exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
So, maybe the Baltimore Orioles’ 22-year-old star will indeed make the leap from a 28-homer hitter to the 55 home runs he’s currently on pace for. Per the legal doctrine known as the “JosĂ© Bautista Precedent,” that wouldn’t even be that large of a leap.
But history, at least, doesn’t support the idea. Henderson is a full-time shortstop, and full-time shortstops rarely go north of 45 homers, much less 50. Only Ernie Banks and Alex Rodriguez have ever done it, and the latter didn’t have the cleanest power source.
At 44.5 percent, Henderson is also running a ground-ball rate higher than the league average of 42.7 percent. His long ball prowess has much to do with a league-leading rate of 31.9 percent of his fly balls clearing the fence, which is likely unsustainable.
The Astros Were Never That Bad5 of 8
Jose Altuve (L) and Joey Loperfido (R)Logan Riely/Getty Images
At this point, saying the Houston Astros aren’t actually that bad may be a “No duh” situation.
After dropping 24 of their first 36 games, the Astros have rallied to win nine of their last 11. In the process, they’ve leapfrogged from fifth place to third place in the American League West and trimmed their deficit to the leader by from 8.5 to 4.0 games.
There was never anything majorly wrong with Houston’s offense, so it’s no big shock that it’s put up a solid 5.3 runs per game in this span. Though, to be sure, Alex Bregman finding his stroke and Joey Loperfido taking over for JosĂ© Abreu at first base have definitely helped.
We can also get into the dramatic improvement of Houston’s pitching, as the 1.21-point drop in its ERA from April to May is among the biggest in baseball. This was inevitable. Pitching staffs get hit with bad luck all the time, but the Astros had it really bad in April.
As if these things didn’t already bode well enough, the Astros also have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the AL. So at the risk of jinxing them, the worst of it should be over.
The Yankees (Probably) Aren’t This Good6 of 8
Clay HolmesJim McIsaac/Getty Images
Or, maybe this iteration of the New York Yankees is exactly this good.
At 33-15, their Pythagorean record (based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) is exactly the same as their actual record. And as precisely nobody has failed to notice, all this is happening without Gerrit Cole.
Especially now that Aaron Judge is swinging a hot bat again with a 1.433 OPS in May, the Yankees’ offense is legitimately good. That it co-leads the majors with 68 home runs is good. That it’s also pulling off the biggest strikeout decrease from 2023 is even better.
One question, though, is whether this pitching staff can keep hanging in until Cole returns.
Its 2.83 ERA is fishy on at least one account, which is that Yankee hurlers are stranding baserunners at a rate that only two other teams have ever achieved. They’re also allowing a .427 average on hard-hit balls, by far the lowest in MLB and 53 points below the league norm.
Another question is how the Yankees will hang in there as they’re forced to more frequently pick on teams their own size. They’ve played almost as many games against AL Central foes as AL East foes, but their record against the latter (8-8) hints at much more vulnerability than their record against the former (11-1).
Atlanta’s Offense Isn’t This Mid7 of 8
Ronald Acuña Jr.Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
When looking at the biggest offensive declines from 2023 to 2024, two words will inevitably escape one’s mouth upon seeing that Atlanta is in the No. 1 spot.
“Wait, what?”
Even if this isn’t exactly a fresh story at this point, it’s still one that boggles the mind. This is, after all, the same offense that hit a record-tying 307 home runs and generally made a run at the 1927 Yankees last season. Or at least, it’s supposed to be.
From 30,000 feet up, the explanations for the mediocre-ing of Atlanta’s offense aren’t hard to spot. There are more strikeouts, for one. And fewer hard-hit balls, for another.
But there’s also been some bad luck. Atlanta’s offense has notably had more barrels turn into outs than any other offense in the National League. There are some doozies in there, including bolts by Austin Riley and Michael Harris II that had no business finding leather.
And speaking of Riley, there’s something about him, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson going from a collective .955 OPS in 2023 to a mere .705 OPS in 2024 that just doesn’t feel right. They’ll be better. Heck, they can only be better.
Chill Out About Chilly Offense8 of 8
Manny MachadoSean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Remember when offense skyrocketed last year and we all thought that was going to be the new normal brought on by the pitch clock, the shift ban and the bigger bases?
Not so much, as it turns out. Scoring is down from 4.6 to 4.3 runs per game, and the league-wide batting average is a mere .240. The only time it’s ever gone lower was in 1968, when the mound was higher and Bob Gibsons and Denny McLains roamed the earth.
There are real causes for concern at play. Home runs are notably down from 1.2 to 1.0 per game. And while it’s still low, the 21.1 caught-stealing percentage noted earlier is up from 19.8 percent in 2023.
Still, let’s let a little more time pass before we let our concern turn into panic.
Strikeouts are down, at least, and this is the first season of the 10-year Statcast era in which hitters deserve a better batting average than the one they actually have. They’re hitting .240, but they should be hitting .248.
Warm weather could be all that’s needed. It was the case when the league hit .232 in April of 2021 and 2022, years that ended with averages of .244 and .243. And it’s really always the case, as offense has long tended to peak in June, July and August.
It should be just a matter of time, in other words, before the hits keep coming.
