Eagles-Packers playoff preview: 14 things to watch in Sunday’s Wild Card game

Is Sunday here yet?

As of this original publish time, no, unfortunately, it is not. Damn!

That’s a shame because we’re all very excited to watch the Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field. Should be a pretty good game.

Let’s run through some of the more important things to watch out for this in Wild Card playoff matchup.

1 – Will Jalen Hurts be rusty?
As of me typing this sentence, Hurts has yet to officially clear the concussion protocol. But all signs currently point to him starting on Sunday.

Hurts will be taking the field for the first time since suffering a head injury on December 22. The natural question is: will the 21-day layoff cause Hurts to be rusty?

I actually think that’s an overblown concern for a couple reasons.

The more time to recover from a concussion, the better.
Hurts (and the entire Eagles offense, really) has made a habit of starting slow even when he’s been fully healthy and not coming off any kind of extended layoff.

Hurts does usually pick up the pace as the game goes along, however. That’s a testament to him not letting any early struggles snowball into a big catastrophe.

For what it’s worth, Jordan Mailata said Hurts looked “sharp” in Wednesday’s practice preparation for the Packers game.

Assuming that assessment is accurate, it matches what we saw from Hurts prior to his concussion. He turned in his best passing performance of the season in Week 15 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hurts also looked good early on against the Washington Commanders in Week 16 before getting injured.

It’d be really encouraging for the Eagles’ outlook if Hurts picks up where he left off. It’s quite possible that happens.

As it relates to this specific matchup, the feeling here is that Hurts could be best served to make quick decisions and not drift out of the pocket. According to NFL Pro, the Packers’ defense has done a really good job of limiting scrambling passers:

Opposing passers completed just 12 of 39 passes after scrambling from the pocket for 110 yards and an interception against the Packers defense this season, resulting in an average of 2.8 yards per attempt, fewest in the NFL.

Hurts certainly can’t be as reckless as he was in Week 1, when he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. He also had two more potential picks get dropped in that game.

Hurts has obviously been better at protecting the football since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye, so, there’s reason to believe he won’t make as many mistakes this time around.

2 – Just how good are the Packers?
I’ve seen some project the Eagles to beat the Packers comfortably. Is Green Bay overrated?

At first glance, I have a hard time taking the Packers lightly. They rank third in DVOA and fifth in point differential. The Eagles rank fifth and second in those categories, respectively.

But the Packers’ record against high quality competition just isn’t great. They’re 2-5 in seven games against teams that made the playoffs this season. An overview:

Five-point loss against the Eagles in Brazil
Two-point loss versus the Minnesota Vikings

Five-point win at the Los Angeles Rams

Two-point win versus the Houston Texans

10-point loss versus the Detroit Lions

Three-point loss at the Detroit Lions
Two-point loss at the Minnesota Vikings

The win over the Rams notably took place when LA was missing both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Pretty significant absences.

The Texans, meanwhile, are arguably the worst team in the playoffs this season. Houston won the league’s weakest division while ranked 16th in DVOA and 16th in point differential. Couldn’t be more mediocre.

Now, only one loss came by more than one possession. It’s hardly like the Packers regularly got waxed by good teams. I expect them to be competitive in Philly … but I also expect them to be entirely beatable.

3 – Will the Eagles also throw to Saquon Barkley?
We know the Eagles are going to run the ball with Saquon Barkley early and often. At least, they should. He’s pretty unstoppable.

But the Packers’ run defense is stout.

Green Bay is allowing the third-fewest yards per rush attempt (4.0) this season. They rank seventh in run defense DVOA, eighth in defensive rush EPA, and ninth in defensive rush success rate. More context from Shane Haff:

The Packers have a very good run defense that will challenge the Eagles’ rushing attack.

Rashan Gary ranks 1st in the NFL in EDGE Run Stop Win Rate and T.J. Slaton ranks 1st in DT Run Stop Win Rate.

The Packers have not allowed a 75-yard rusher since week 8, and it isn’t a…

— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) January 9, 2025

It’s worth noting that Slaton did not practice on Wednesday. Something to monitor.

The Eagles should hardly not run the ball because the Packers are good at stopping it. The Baltimore Ravens have the NFL’s best run defense and the Eagles were able to have Barkley log 23 carries for 107 yards (4.7 average) and one touchdown against them. The Eagles should stick with the identity that brought them to this point.

But they shouldn’t just be utilizing Barkley as a runner. The Eagles could be wise to put an emphasis on him as a pass-catcher as well. The Packers have allowed the third-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to running backs this season. Barkley had an 18-yard leaping touchdown grab against the Packers back in Week 1.

4 – Vic Fangio vs. Matt LaFleur
I think it’s safe to say Fangio has been a slight upgrade on Matt Patricia.

The Eagles finished the regular season allowing the fewest offensive points per game (17.2) and fewest yards per game (278.4).

What’s especially impressive about the yardage total is that the Eagles allowed 32.8 fewer yards per game than the next best team. The difference between them and second is the same distance between second and 22nd!

Fangio’s defense has more than earned the benefit of the doubt with how excellent they’ve been.

But if you’re looking for even more reason to feel good about the Eagles’ defense, consider that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur previously extolled Fangio’s greatness. From an August 2019 ESPN interview:

LaFleur: There are so many guys and every system is different, but I look at Vic Fangio. Just the fronts and the multiple looks you get from him. That’s incredibly difficult. Shoot, Indianapolis last year we knew exactly what they were going to do to us and we didn’t have a lot of success because they were so sound. They stuffed the run out of a two-safety defense and played extremely fast.

LaFleur oversaw a Packers offense that produced 29 points and 414 yards against Fangio’s defense back in Week 1, so, it’s not like he’s hopeless against the Eagles’ defensive coordinator. But Fangio’s defense did win in some key areas such as third down (3/11) and red zone efficiency (1/4).

You can bet LaFleur isn’t thrilled about having to face Fangio this weekend.

5 – Will Jordan Love continue to protect the football?
Jordan Love’s first eight games: 32.1 average pass attempts, 17 TD (16 passing + 1 rushing), 11 giveaways, 90.6 passer rating

Jordan Love’s last seven games: 24 average pass attempts, 9 TD, 0 giveaways, 106.0 passer rating

With their quarterback turning the ball over a lot, the Packers transitioned to more of a run-heavy offense coming out of their bye. Hmm … why does that sound familiar?

Jalen Hurts’ first four games: 33 average pass attempts, 6 TD (4 passing + 2 rushing), 7 giveaways (4 interceptions + 3 fumbles lost), 85.7 passer rating

Jalen Hurts’ last 10 games (excluding Week 16 when he got hurt early): 22.5 average pass attempts, 26 TD (14 passing + 12 rushing), 3 giveaways (1 interception + 2 fumbles lost), 115.5 passer rating

Hurts and Love have been much better at protecting the football in run-heavy offenses. Both defenses will be especially keyed in on stopping the run in order to increase the other team’s passing volume.

The Eagles saw firsthand how Love can be a bit reckless back in Week 1 when Reed Blankenship jumped one of his aggressive throws for a big interception. Love ranks tied for the eighth-highest “bad throw percentage” as determined by Pro Football Reference. The Eagles might also get a tipped pass interception or two with the Packers having the third-highest drop percentage in the NFL.

It’ll be surprising if the Eagles are able to strip-sack Love. He’s somehow only lost four fumbles in his entire career … and zero this season (regression alert?). And he just doesn’t really take sacks. Love has the third-lowest percentage of pressures turned into sacks in 2024. Additionally, Love is the only quarterback who hasn’t been sacked due to his own fault, per Pro Football Focus pressure charting.

6 – Can the Eagles stop the Packers’ rushing attack?
If the Packers have one big takeaway from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles, it’s probably that they didn’t run the ball enough.

The Packers had 21 carries go for 163 yards (7.8 average) and one touchdown in that game.

As previously noted, the Packers shifted to a run-heavy identity during this season. They rank third in rushing play percentage (51.22%), only behind the league-leading Eagles (55.75%) and second-place Ravens (52.51%).

Riding Josh Jacobs has been effective; he finished the regular season with 4.4 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns. Emanuel Wilson has been a high-quality No. 2 option with 4.9 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns of his own.

The Eagles’ run defense is good. They rank tied for ninth in yards per opponent rush attempt, second in run defense DVOA, second in defensive rush EPA, and seventh in defensive rush success rate. But they’ll be tested.

The Packers could look to employ the ball-control offensive strategy that the Carolina Panthers utilized against the Eagles. Pound the rock, create manageable third downs, and repeat to go on long scoring drives that shorten the game. The Eagles’ defense must be able to disrupt the Packers’ rushing attack.

7 – How much will the loss of Christian Watson hurt?
I posed this question to Acme Packing Company’s Justis Mosqueda. His answer:

“It’s a pretty big deal. Without Watson, the Packers’ offense didn’t really have an answer for man coverage against the Vikings. Usually, the Vikings play zone defense behind their blitzes and the Packers were caught a bit off guard by their gameplan, leading to the hole Green Bay needed to dig themselves out of early. Watson had three touchdowns against the Cowboys a couple of years ago in the playoffs when they tried to man up these receivers. Bo Melton is the only other “speed” receiver on the roster, but it’s getting hard to play him and Jayden Reed on the field at the same time because neither are impactful as run blockers on the run-first team. Maybe the answer is to let Dontayvion Wicks beat man coverage with his route running, but losing Watson certainly hurt the team.”

The numbers echo this sentiment:

2024 GB receiving core without Christian Watson on the field:

1.30 yards per route run
(would rank 13th)
2.4% explosive play per route
(would rank 19th)

with Watson on the field:

1.67 yards per route run
(would rank first)
3.7% explosive play per route
(would rank first)

— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) January 6, 2025

Love typically likes to push the ball downfield. He ranks fifth among NFL quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass attempt. He has the second-highest deep pass percentage at 14.4%, only behind Anthony Richardson (who has a reputation for chucking it).

The Packers’ receiving corps is an interesting unit since it lacks a true alpha WR1 target and is instead built more like a basketball team with players having their specialized roles. Losing Watson doesn’t leave them hopeless; they still have good pass-catchers. But, as Eagles fans know from the days of DeSean Jackson serving as a vertical dynamic, losing an explosive play threat is a big deal that can change how offenses defend you.

8 – It might be good to get A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith involved in the middle of the field?
Teams have been having success attacking the Packers in the middle of the field, as noted by Acme Packing Company.

The thing is … the Eagles aren’t known for targeting that area.

Unlike the divisional teams that the Packers have struggled against, the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing game is based on throws to the perimeter to star receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Brown is almost exclusively split outside in the offense while Smith is more times than not lining up outside. That’s very different than how the Lions and Vikings use receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as they those teams tend to play their star receivers either in the slot or use them in condensed sets where the outside receiver is essentially in a slot position.

It’s not that Hurts doesn’t have any success when throwing over the middle. But it’s hard to believe he really loves doing it when the frequency just isn’t there.

Per NFL Pro:

“Jalen Hurts threw just 9.7% of his total passes to the area between the numbers and at least 10 yards downfield, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL ahead of only Kyler Murray (9.4%).”

Hurts had success throwing to Brown (who missed Thursday’s practice but is reportedly set to play on Sunday) and Smith in Week 1.

Brown caught five of his 10 targets for 119 yards and one touchdown. Smith caught seven of his eight targets for 84 yards.

The Packers have have allowed the eighth-most yards to wide receivers this season. And that was with Jaire Alexander playing in seven games. The Packers will be without their top CB in this game since he recently went on injured reserve. Alexander had a pick on Hurts in Week 1.

9 – Can Jalen Carter be a game-wrecker?
We know Carter has the ability to take over a game. The Eagles could really benefit from him doing so again on Sunday.

He could be primed to do it.

The Packers’ offensive line is pretty good; Pro Football Focus ranked it as the sixth-best blocking unit.

But the strength of that unit is at left tackle, left guard, and right tackle. They’re more vulnerable at center and right guard.

Case in point: no quarterback has faced a higher percentage of pressure attributed to the center position than Love at 22.1%. Starter Josh Myers ranks 41st out of 44 centers graded by PFF.

Starting right guard Sean Rhyan ranks 49th out of 82 guards. He was originally being utilized in a rotation with first-round pick Jordan Morgan before the rookie suffered a season-ending injury.

Carter is bound to draw extra attention, as he often does. But … so what? He’s too good to be entirely shut down by double teams. Carter and the Eagles’ defensive interior must take advantage of the Packers’ biggest weakness up front.

10 – Is Zack Baun the Packers stopper?
Baun had a huge game against the Packers in Week 1 with 15 total tackles, two sacks, and one tackle for loss. PFF credited Baun with a team-high seven “stops,” which are tackles that constitute a failure for the offense.

He was simply everywhere.

And that was only Baun’s first regular season game playing off-ball linebacker!

He’s much more experienced now. Baun could play a big role in shutting the Packers’ offense down.

11 – Big upgrade: Cooper DeJean over Avonte Maddox
One of the biggest changes from Week 1 is that the Eagles have a much better nickel cornerback now.

Maddox allowed a 116.7 passer rating when Love threw his way, which was often. The Packers were clearly picking on him.

The Eagles’ defense as a whole got better when DeJean took over for Maddox after the bye.

More context from NFL Pro insights:

“Jordan Love completed 3 of 5 passes when targeting Jayden Reed in the slot for 129 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Eagles. He completed just 14 of 29 other passes for 131 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The Eagles defense struggled to defend the slot during their first four games when Avonte Maddox was their primary nickel, allowing the 2nd-most yards per target (9.0) and 5 touchdowns (T-most). Cooper DeJean took over as the nickel after the Eagles Week 5 bye, and they allowed just 5.2 yards per slot target in Weeks 6-18, 1.2 yards fewer than any other defense.”

12 – Game management: Nick Sirianni vs. Matt LaFleur
Sirianni deserves credit for his role in the Eagles going 14-3. He now has the fifth-highest ALL-TIME head coach winning percentage, only behind Guy Chamberlin, John Madden, Vince Lombardi, and George Allen.

But, based on no shortage of miscues this season, I’d be lying if I said I’m confident about Sirianni’s game management ability in this one. I worry about him not being aggressive as he needs to be.

One comforting thought is that LaFleur could be worse.

Entering the playoffs, Sirianni ranks fifth out of 14 head coaches in correct fourth down aggression. LaFleur ranks 10th.

We saw LaFleur be conservative against the Eagles back in Week 1. He punted from the plus 38-yard line on the Packers’ first drive. He settled for a field goal from 4th-and-goal at the 5-yard line. He settled for another short field goal from 4th-and-5 at the 8-yard line to turn a five-point game into a two-point game.

It’s possible LaFleur will help the Eagles by being cowardly. Sirianni should not follow suit.

13 – Can Jake Elliott be trusted?
Jake Elliott is struggling.

He’s missed nine kicks this year after missing just 11 over the previous three seasons combined.

That’s simply not ideal.

But it’s not like Sirianni can be caught off guard by this reality. Elliott’s struggles could potentially be a blessing in disguise if the Eagles’ head coach leans into being more aggressive on fourth down.

While it’s definitely hard to trust Elliott right now, I will say I still believe in him making a big kick if the game is on the line. He’s almost never not come through in those clutch situations. I’m willing to believe he’s making it until I see him miss one in a spot like that.

But perhaps I’m delusional.

14 – Who will be handling kickoff duty?
The Eagles struggled with kickoff coverage in Week 16, too often giving the Washington Commanders great field position to work with.

The Eagles adjusted in Week 17 by having Jake Elliott take over for Braden Mann on kickoff duty.

But then Mann and Elliott each handled some kickoffs in Week 18.

So, what’s the plan for the playoffs?

We’ll see.

Elliott seems like the better bet since he’s been good at getting the ball through the end zone. No need to mess around and risk a long return. Keisean Nixon is no KaVontae Turpin but he’s solid; he has the sixth-most kick return yards this season.