Early 2024-25 MLB Offseason Predictions on Free Agency, Trades and More
Kerry Miller@@kerrancejamesFeatured Columnist IVOctober 9, 2024Early 2024-25 MLB Offseason Predictions on Free Agency, Trades and More0 of 10
Juan SotoLuke Hales/Getty Images
While eight Major League Baseball teams are still trying to win the 2024 World Series, nearly three-quarters of clubs have already shifted all of their focus to offseason plans.
Juan Soto is by far the biggest fish in this year’s free agency pond, likely headed for the largest present-day value on a contract in MLB history. (Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700 million contract *only* had a present-day value of $460.8 million, and just about everyone expects Soto to sign for north of $500 million.)
Soto will be far from the only driving force of offseason narratives, though.
There are around a dozen players likely headed for nine-figure contracts in free agency, quite a few key option decisions to be made before free agency can truly begin and, as always, possible trades aplenty.
We’re coming in hot with 10 predictions on the biggest things that will transpire this offseason.
Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger Highlight Big Option Decisions to Be Made1 of 10
New York’s Gerrit ColeEvan Bernstein/Getty Images
The first major step of the offseason cycle is for players and teams alike to make decisions on the various player/club/mutual options.
Unlike free agency where it might take months for players to sign a new contract, all option decisions must be made no later than five days after the World Series ends.
This year, there are 65 such decisions to be made, several of which are way more consequential (and expensive) than others.
We won’t bore you here with thoughts on all 65, but here’s our guess at what happens with the eight options valued at $20M or more, in descending order of confidence in said guess.
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox ($25M club option with a $5M buyout)âInstant decline by White Sox.
Frankie Montas, Milwaukee Brewers ($20M mutual option with a $2M buyout)âEasy decline by Brewers.
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (two-year, $50M player option)âRay almost certainly accepts the option.
Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants (one-year, $30M player option)âSnell very likely declines the option, and hopefully signs his next contract before mid-March this time.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (four-year, $144M player option; turns into a five-year, $180M club option if Cole opts out)âCole almost certainly opts out, and Yankees very likely opt in, locking up their ace through 2029.
Jordan Montgomery, Arizona Diamondbacks (one-year, $22.5M player option)âMontgomery likely accepts the offer, but immediately becomes a trade block candidate in light of team owner Ken Kendrick’s recent comments about it being a “horrible decision” to sign Montgomery. (Arizona would likely need to eat a big chunk of that $22.5M to move him.)
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers ($20M player option with a $2M buyout)âEovaldi (who turns 35 in February) probably declines in pursuit of one final multiyear deal.
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs (two-year, $52.5M player option with a $2.5M buyout; Bellinger has another opt-out available after next season)âBellinger likely accepts the offer with hopes of a bounce-back year in 2025 to springboard back into free agency.
One other big one to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson’s $14M mutual option with the Diamondbacks. He had a dynamite year, but the fact that he almost has to be the left-handed half of a DH platoon makes it unlikely he would get more than $14M elsewhere. The Snakes also have a $6M mutual option with Randal Grichuk, so maybe both halves of that platoon will return in 2025.
The Diamond Sports Group / Regional Sports Network Mess Gets Even Messier2 of 10
Jordan MontgomeryNorm Hall/Getty Images
For the second consecutive winter, we’re going to be hearing an awful lot about local media, regional sports networks, Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy situation and how it’s making nearly half of the league unable/unwilling to spend in free agency.
At an MLB-wide level, roughly 20 percent of team revenue comes from local media. And less than a week ago, DSG submitted a plan to shed broadcasting rights with 11 of the 12 teams it carried this season, leaving the Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers and Twins heading into the offseason in a serious state of flux.
DSG did say it wants to come to new terms with those teams, but goodness only knows if that will happen, when it will happen, how much those teams’ expected revenue will change if it happensâor what those teams will do if it doesn’t happen.
About a month ago, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez wrote about the likelihood of this becoming “Another Winter of Uncertainty,” saying we should have a better idea by the end of November what is actually going to happen. However, he noted the uncertainty could linger until April 1. That’s when DSG is required to emerge from bankruptcy in order to meet terms it recently agreed to on the NBA and NHL side of things.
And, well, having 11 teams possibly not knowing until a week into the regular season how much they can afford to spend in the offseason is a recipe for quite the uncomfortable waiting game yet again.
This RSN uncertainty is the biggest reason it took so doggone long for marquee free agents Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to sign contracts last winter. And while it won’t keep the Mets and Yankees from both trying to spend half a billion bucks on Juan Soto, it could hold the rest of the offseason hostage by forcing quite a few teams to negotiate in good faith and hypotheticals.
Chicago White Sox Trade Away Both Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr.3 of 10
Luis Robert Jr.Matt Dirksen/Getty Images
It probably won’t be a package deal, but get ready for the Chicago White Sox to trade away the two best parts of their historically bad team.
Garrett Crochet getting dealt is almost a sure thing.
Chicago wrapped him in bubble wrap over the second half of the season, not once allowing him to pitch into the fifth inning in July, August or September. However, he did continue to pitch on regular rest, making 32 starts. And though he didn’t go deep into any of them, Crochet averaged 14.9 K/9 and 14.0 K/BB over his final eight starts.
He has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, and maybe the main reason it feels like a trade is inevitable was the whole fiasco from shortly before the trade deadline when Crochet reportedly said heâafter missing all of 2022 and only pitching 12.2 innings in 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgeryâwouldn’t pitch into the postseason if traded unless he was first given a long-term extension. It kind of tanked his trade value and struck a bad chord with White Sox GM Chris Getz.
By making those 32 starts, though, he displayed enough durability for teams to be willing to put together a sizable trade package for him before perhaps also making that long-term extension happen. (The Baltimore Orioles still feel like the top candidate to trade for Crochet, especially if they end up failing to re-sign Corbin Burnes.)
Luis Robert Jr. is much less of a sure thing to get traded, but it should happen.
After missing two months early in the season, Robert ended up having a rough 2024 campaign, posting an OPS (.657) exactly 200 points below where he finished the previous season. But he did play in 93 out of a possible 102 games from June 4 onward and stole a career-high 23 bases.
Those were good signs from a guy with durability concerns of his own, and there now should be plenty of teams willing to buy low on Robert bouncing back in the slugging department. He is owed $15M next season, followed by a pair of $20M club options for 2026 and 2027.
Devin Williams Also Gets Traded4 of 10
Devin WilliamsJohn Fisher/Getty Images
Circling back to the options discussion from earlier, Milwaukee holds a $10.5M club option for Devin Williams, which is a lock to be exercised.
Over the past five years, very few relievers have been more dominant than this 2020 NL Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star. If Milwaukee allowed him to hit free agency, he would likely get a contract on par with what Josh Hader signed last winter.
But for as great as Williams has been during the regular season (235.2 IP with a 1.83 ERA), his collapse in Game 3 of the wild-card series against the New York Mets may have been the final straw with the Brewers.
He was unavailable for the postseason in both 2020 (shoulder injury) and 2021 (broken hand from punching a wall), gave up two earned runs in 0.2 IP during the 2023 postseason and allowed four earned runs in 1.2 IP this postseason.
Say what you will about the sample size, but it has gotten to the point where the Brewers can’t trust him to deliver / be available when it matters most, and a change of scenery might be what’s best on both sides of the fence here.
Much like last winter when the Minnesota Twins exercised their $10.5M club option on Jorge Polanco in November only to trade him away in January, look for the Brew Crew to “keep” Williams before trading himâpossibly to the Phillies, who have both Carlos EstĂ©vez and Jeff Hoffman hitting free agency and have been in a near-permanent state of trying to find a reliable closer.
Marlins Move a Marquee Pitcher, Too5 of 10
Sandy AlcĂĄntaraMegan Briggs/Getty Images
It’s almost hard to believe that the Marlins still have big trade chips to offer, having dealt all of Luis ArrĂĄez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Bryan Hoeing, Trevor Rogers, Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell and a few others just since early May.
They do have two very intriguing starting pitchers, though, both of whom are coming back from considerable injuries.
The most oft-mentioned trade candidate is JesĂșs Luzardo, who started popping up in rumors last December. He has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, and had he been healthy at the trade deadline, it’s very likely he would have been traded, given how well he pitched in both 2022 and 2023.
He wasn’t healthy, though, throwing his final pitch of the season on June 16 due to a lumbar stress reaction. Unless his medical records show reason to believe it will be a concern moving forward, though, he could be on the move this winter.
The other, much more noteworthy possibility is Sandy AlcĂĄntara.
The 2022 NL Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last October and missed all of 2024, but he should be good to go by Opening Day 2025. He is owed $17.3 million next season, $17.3 million again in 2026 and there is a $21M club option for 2027.
If he can come back and pitch like he did from 2019-23, what a bargain that would be. Spotrac puts Michael Wacha’s market value (if he declines his $16M player option) at three years for $60.9M, so $55.6M for three years of AlcĂĄntara would be a steal.
But with the Marlins having both a litany of rotation options and little to no hope of contending in 2025, it makes sense for them to move one of their ace-caliber starters.
Free Agents Re-Signing with Current Team Will Be a Major Theme6 of 10
Juan SotoMary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images
This offseason is all about Juan Soto. It won’t be quite as big as last year’s Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, but arguably more of a circus and a bigger story than Aaron Judge’s free agency from the previous winter.
Unless the Yankees low-ball him and/or the Mets make just a ginormous offer that the Yanks are unwilling to match, he’s probably going to stay in The Bronx, right?
He has clearly been enjoying his time playing alongside Judge, and they have a chance to do something historically special beyond just this one year of two-headed dominance.
And if he does re-sign with the Yankees, it could set into motion a chain reaction that results in a lot of this year’s top free agents simply staying put.
If they don’t get Soto, the Mets figure to set their sights on locking up Pete Alonso on a long-term deal. (As well as a pitcher that we’ll get to later.)
If both New York teams make those nine-figure signings, it becomes way less likely that either one would pursue Alex Bregman, paving the way for him to re-sign with Houston. (Though, don’t sleep on the Mariners swooping in with a big offer for Bregman, given their third-base situation.)
Independent of those three landing spots, the Dodgers will likely try to re-up with Teoscar HernĂĄndezâunless it’s a “we can afford one or the other” situation between him and Brewers SS Willy Adames and they prioritize their middle infield in that regard.
Corbin Burnes staying with the Orioles is at least plausible. Same goes for Max Fried with Atlanta, Blake Snell with the Giants and Jack Flaherty with the Dodgers.
Save for there being no realistic chance that the Brewers re-sign Adames at his Spotrac market value of six-years, $152M, there could be a ton of marquee re-signings this offseason, in stark contrast to last winter when only three of the 26 biggest contracts (29 if you include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga and Jung-Hoo Lee coming to MLB from KBO/NPB) were cases of players staying with the same team.
Roki Sasaki Stays in Japan, but Tomoyuki Sugano Sparks a Slight Bidding War7 of 10
Tomoyuki SuganoAlex Trautwig/WBCI/MLB via Getty Images
In neither the case of Roki Sasaki nor Tomoyuki Sugano will we see anything close to the massive $325M deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers last season.
Maybe teams would be willing to go that high on Sasaki, but they can’t.
Sasaki is just 23 years old and has not reached six years of NPB service time, leaving him subject to MLB’s international free agent rules, where the most he could get via international bonus pool money is $7.56M, per Baseball America’s Ben Badler.
Shohei Ohtani went through the same thing when he signed with the Angels in December 2017. Had he waited two more years, he could have instantly signed a bigger contract as a “regular” free agent. Instead, he got a $2.315M signing bonus and played for the league minimum for his first three seasons, needing to wait until after his sixth big-league season to sign his $700M deal.
Obviously, things worked out swimmingly for Ohtani in the end, but would Sasakiâwho dealt with some injuries this season and may not even get posted by his current clubâhave a similar fate? The young ace may well have no choice but to wait it out for two more years in Japan before signing a massive MLB deal during the 2026-27 offseason.
Sugano, on the other hand, is almost too experienced. After 12 years of Nippon Professional Baseball, he turns 35 in a few days and is likely to only receive a two-year, maybe three-year deal as he nears the end of his career.
However, it’s a career with a 2.45 ERA in 1,873.1 innings pitched, in which he just had a 1.67 ERA in 156.2 innings pitched with a 6.94 K/BB ratio. And he intends to sign with an MLB team fresh off both Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga having incredible debut seasons in their transitions from NPB to MLB, so there might be more of a bidding war for his services than there would have been a year ago.
Sasaki stays with Chiba Lotte, but Sugano gets a two-year, $30M deal, possibly joining Imanaga with the Cubs.
Baltimore Orioles Spend More Than They Have in Past 6 Free Agency Cycles Combined8 of 10
Baltimore’s Corbin BurnesPatrick Smith/Getty Images
To be sure, this isn’t a particularly bold prediction.
Since signing Alex Cobb to a four-year, $57M contract in March 2018, the Baltimore Orioles have committed a combined total of $53.5M in MLB contracts to 14 free agents, all of them on one-year deals.
With one big signing, they could more than double what they have spent on free agents over the course of the past 2,400 or so days.
And that big signing could be coming, as this is their first offseason under new ownership. David Rubenstein became the major owner the day before Opening Day (March 27) and later took full control of the team on August 1.
We already saw at the trade deadline that these aren’t the Orioles of yore. They traded for Zach Eflin, who is owed $18M in 2025. They also made moves for Seranthony DomĂnguez, Trevor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Eloy JimĂ©nez, simultaneously increasing their payroll and trading away noteworthy prospects.
Now, it’s time for that new ownership to really get to work.
Unless they’re able to re-sign Corbin Burnes, it probably won’t be a massive splash for one of the top 10 free agents on the board. They may well sign multiple next-tier starting pitchersâguys like Yusei Kikuchi, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino…Max Scherzer???âto eight-figure salaries, though, as they won’t be getting any of Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells or John Means back from Tommy John surgery any time soon.
Maybe they do retain Burnes, though?
Ideally, this will also be the offseason where they finally strike a long-term deal with one of their young stars. We wish them the best of luck on a Gunnar Henderson contract after the phenomenal two-year run he has had, but maybe they could make a Jackson Chourio-sized (eight-year, $82M) offer to Jackson Holliday after his underwhelming first year in the majors.
Willy Adames Lands with Atlanta Braves9 of 10
Willy AdamesJohn Fisher/Getty Images
Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already said that he expects the team’s payroll to increase for 2025, this despite Charlie Morton ($20M salary in 2024) and Max Fried ($15M) among the long list of players hitting free agency.
Granted, they could do almost nothing this offseason and still have an increased payroll.
Chris Sale will be making $22M in 2025 after Boston paid darn near his entire salary in 2024. The cost for Jorge Soler is about to spike from $2.37M in prorated salary to $16M next year. Reynaldo LĂłpez is getting a $7M pay bump. Sean Murphy’s salary will jump from $9M to $15M.
They’ve effectively already spent all of that Morton and Fried money, and then some.
But if they’re serious about increasing spending, an improvement at shortstop is a must.
Orlando Arcia was initially a godsend in the aftermath of not re-signing Dansby Swanson. He missed a few weeks early in the 2023 campaign with a microfracture in his wrist, but he hit .341 through his first 54 games played, ultimately landing on the All-Star roster. But he had a .652 OPS the rest of the way before a .625 OPS this year, struggling to produce while playing in 244 of a possible 249 games.
Atlanta will very happily keep Arcia around as a versatile backup for two more years at a combined cost of $4M, but they’re going to be at the top of the list of teams bidding for Willy Adames’ services.
The Dodgers also figure to be in the mix for Adames. Possibly the Blue Jays, too, if they’re preemptively preparing for Bo Bichette to walk a year from now. But we’ll take Atlanta for what will be one of the bigger non-Soto contracts in this year’s free agency cycle.
Blake Snell Signs with New York Mets10 of 10
Blake SnellEd Zurga/Getty Images
Blake Snell turns 32 in April and already has a fairly extensive history of minor injuriesânever missing more than one-third of a season, but logging enough innings to qualify for an ERA title just twice in his career. A five-year deal is probably the max he’ll be able to get, but maybe something with a sixth season that vests with enough innings pitched in 2029 could be in play.
Snell did win the ERA title both years that he qualified for it, though. And while the first half of the 2024 season was a nightmare for him, he has a 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 dating back to the start of 2023.
As such, he could be headed for the second-highest average salary among this year’s free agents, behind only Juan Soto.
And if Soto re-signs with the New York Yankees, the New York Mets figure to take that massive amount of money they’ve earmarked for Soto and repurpose it to both re-sign Pete Alonso and get one of this year’s available aces.
With Luis Severino and Jose Quintana both becoming unrestricted free agents and Sean Manaea ($13.5M player option) very likely to opt for free agency, the Mets sure could use multiple starting pitchers. At this point, their 2025 rotation is Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill by default and a great big unknown at No. 5.
That said, New York’s level of ‘desperation’ to add an ace may well hinge on how these next few weeks go.
If the Mets can continue this miracle run to what would be their first World Series title since 1986, maybe they don’t bother with Snell. Conversely, if they get eliminated because a starter absolutely implodes in the first inning of a winner-take-all game, Steve Cohen might just hand Snell a blank check ASAP.
