Early Predictions for Loaded 2025 Free-Agent WR Class After Stefon Diggs’ Contract

Alex BallentineApril 6, 2024Early Predictions for Loaded 2025 Free-Agent WR Class After Stefon Diggs’ Contract0 of 8

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The most interesting trade of the offseason got even more interesting when Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that the Houston Texans had wiped out the last three years of Stefon Diggs’ contract.

The Diggs trade was significant before that because it continued a power shift in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills have lost a ton of talent and are rebuilding the roster for a second phase with Josh Allen at quarterback. At the same time, the Houston Texans are loading up to build on their surprise run last season.

But the news that Diggs’ contract is now just a one-year deal causes another major shift. An already-loaded 2025 free-agent class just got even deeper.

Of course, it’s always hard to project a free-agent class a year ahead. Between fifth-year options and nearly a year for players to extend their current contracts, it’s hard to know how many pass-catchers will actually be on the market next season.

Here’s a look at the top names whose contracts are expiring and predictions for where they will wind up playing a year from now.

The 2021 First-Round Picks1 of 8

Bengals WR Ja’Marr ChaseAndy Lyons/Getty Images

The 2021 draft was a great year for receivers. Those taken in the first round have mostly lived up to the hype. The following players have a fifth-year club option that will likely be exercised. Here’s a rundown along with their projected fifth-year option salary from Over The Cap. Teams can start exercising these options now and must decide by May 2.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals—$21.8 million

Only Trevor Lawrence’s fifth-year option will be more costly in the draft class. Because Chase has made more than one Pro Bowl in his first three seasons, he is eligible for the highest tier of option. The Bengals will ultimately want to sign him to a long-term extension, but exercising the option will give them an additional year to come to terms on that contract.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins—$15.6 million

The difference between Waddle’s and Chase’s fifth-year options shows how big an impact the tiered option can have. Waddle is significantly cheaper despite being taken right after Chase in the draft. The sixth overall pick has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in all three of his seasons. He only needed 14 games to do it in 2023. His speed, combined with Tyreek Hill’s, gives the Dolphins a unique receiver tandem that regularly exploits defenses. The Dolphins will want to keep the two together.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles—$15.6 million

Smith’s option carries the same cap hit as Waddle’s. Both are high-end No. 2 wide receivers who would probably be the primary target for several offenses around the league. The $15.6 million cap hit would be tied for 17th in the league, per Spotrac. That doesn’t feel like a gross overpay for a receiver who has consistently produced in a big role with the Eagles.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings2 of 8

Justin JeffersonNic Antaya/Getty Images

Justin Jefferson is the biggest domino that needs to fall. The 24-year-old has put himself in a position to reset the market as a 24-year-old who has put up elite production and earned his first All-Pro nod in 2022.

From a team-building perspective, the Vikings are in a good position to give Jefferson a market-altering contract. They parted ways with Kirk Cousins, which is going to open up cap space over the next few seasons.

Assuming they find a quarterback in the draft later this month, it will be easier to find the money to pay Jefferson while they have a starting quarterback on a rookie contract.

Vikings owner Mark Wilf recently went on The NFL Report (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL Media) to give a positive update on contract talks, turning down talk of the Vikings potentially trading the receiver.

“Again, right now, we’re focused on getting that guy on our field with the purple, and he looks great in purple,” he said. “We’re going to do our best to keep it that way.”

That’s likely going to involve a record-setting deal. Dan Graziano of ESPN reported the deal is “certain to pay him more than $30 million per year.”

The biggest question isn’t money. The Vikings are in a position to offer that. However, the quarterback situation is one worth monitoring. With the team moving on from Cousins, it might have to wait to get a commitment from Jefferson until he sees who will be throwing him the ball.

Prediction: Jefferson signs a five-year, $170 million extension with the Vikings in the summer

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys3 of 8

CeeDee LambMichael Owens/Getty Images

When you first look at the Dallas Cowboys offseason, it’s easy to get frustrated with how little they’ve done. Then you remember that Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb both have expiring contracts in 2025 and the bill is about to get much higher for both.

That’s especially true of Lamb. He’s set to make $18 million under his fifth-year option in 2024 with the resume to get paid the big bucks in 2025.

Currently, Spotrac puts his market value as a four-year, $115.4 million contract that puts him at $28.8 million in annual average value. That might be accurate for now, but things will change once Justin Jefferson gets paid, which is why he’s the first domino everyone is going to watch.

Right now, Tyreek Hill is the only receiver who has a contract worth $30 million or more annually. Once Jefferson breaks that seal by going over that number, it’s more likely that Lamb will make his case to do the same.

Of the top receivers on the market, Lamb feels like the least likely to be on the move. He has said publicly that he wants to be in Dallas, the Cowboys’ passive approach to spending this offseason would indicate they are planning on spending future money, and he said on Micah Parsons’ Bleacher Report podcast that he would like to be “one of the top-paid receivers.”

A contract that pays him $31 million annually qualifies and the Cowboys have the future cap space to make it happen. He’s certainly earned it after putting in his first All-Pro season in 2023.

Prediction: Lamb signs a five-year, $155 million extension this summer

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions4 of 8

Amon-Ra St. BrownKevin Sabitus/Getty Images

One benefit of falling all the way to the fourth round of the draft is that Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the first receiver in the 2021 draft class to get a massive contract. While the other stars from the class will likely have to play one more year at a controlled cost, the Lions don’t have a fifth-year option on their star receiver.

In fact, he might be the next receiver to get his payday.

Diana Russini of The Athletic reported that the Lions and St. Brown are “close to a deal” that would pay him “around $26 to $28 million per season.” That was now more than a month ago.

It would make sense that St. Brown would want to get a deal done quickly. As a fourth-round pick, he’s made just $3.2 million in the first three years of his career. That number will more than double to $6.6 million under his current contract, but his next contract would exponentially increase his income just with the signing bonus.

St. Brown has been a high-volume, reliable option in one of the league’s most productive offenses over the last two years. He set all new career highs last season with 119 receptions, 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Both sides should be motivated to get something done quickly. St. Brown has financial ground to make up as a Day 3 pick and the Lions aren’t going to be able to replace his role easily if he gets away.

Prediction: St. Brown signs a four-year, $115 million contract extension with the Lions before the draft

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers5 of 8

Brandon AiyukCooper Neill/Getty Images

Here’s where things will get interesting.

Brandon Aiyuk has been a popular subject for trade fodder and rumors. Much of it has to do with his expiring contract. He will play on his fifth-year option at $14.1 million in 2024. He’ll be a free agent if the Niners don’t work out an extension.

The common refrain you’ll see when it comes to the Aiyuk rumor mill is that the Niners can’t afford to pay both of their top two receivers. It’s the same reason that Tee Higgins has been at the heart of trade talk for about a year now.

The receiver duo would indeed be expensive. Deebo Samuel’s contract is seventh at the position in annual average value ($23.9 million). He carries the third-biggest cap hit for a receiver in 2024.

But the structure of Samuel’s deal enables another approach for the Niners. They can trade Samuel next offseason and save $9.1 million against the cap while eating a $15.1 million dead cap charge.

Essentially, they can choose between Aiyuk and Samuel in 2025.

At this point, the wiser choice would be Aiyuk. He’s two years younger and he was the more productive receiver last season.

The sticking point would be if Aiyuk elects to hold out this season. The two sides are reportedly far apart in contract talks and the receiver has made at least one cryptic Instagram post to express his frustration.

However, we’ve seen holdouts be resolved with short-term incentives a la Chris Jones and Josh Jacobs this past season. The Niners might be able to add some money to his 2024 salary that would extend the window and give them flexibility.

Given how close they were to winning a Super Bowl, it would make sense for them to keep both Aiyuk and Samuel this season and work on trading Samuel next offseason.

Once they do that, they will have the future money to ink Aiyuk to a contract, even if it might be more expensive after another year of WR1 production.

Prediction: Next offseason, the 49ers trade Deebo Samuel and sign Aiyuk to an extension

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans6 of 8

Stefon DiggsJames Gilbert/Getty Images

There are so many angles to the Stefon Diggs trade that are fascinating. The decision for the two parties to wipe out the final three years of his contract adds the most intriguing layer.

Adam Schefter of ESPN noted that the Texans anticipate that they’ll be “getting the best version of Diggs” since he will be looking to secure another long-term contract at the end of the 2024 season.

Diggs is making a huge bet on himself. His numbers and role dissipated over the back half of the 2023 season:

Austin Gayle @austingayle_Stefon Diggs’ production splits for Weeks 1-9 vs. Weeks 10-18 + the playoffs pic.twitter.com/L8K8i2b3xu

Diggs is going from one good situation to another. C.J. Stroud is an ascending quarterback and the Texans have an explosive group of young playmakers around him. Nico Collins is also playing for a new contract and Tank Dell was promising when he was on the field last season.

Throw in Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce in the backfield and the Texans could be a high-scoring unit.

The big question is whether Diggs is a long-term part of the group. Given his age and history of wearing out his welcome, it’s a risky proposition and the Texans might have had the right idea when they limited the contract to a one-year experiment.

Depending on how things go, the Texans might be faced with the choice of extending Collins or Diggs next season, and they may opt to go with the younger receiver with more upside.

Prediction: Diggs will sign with another team next offseason

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals7 of 8

Tee HigginsIan Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Cincinnati Bengals have bought some more time for them to figure out what to do with Tee Higgins in the long term because they used the franchise tag on him.

They now have until July 15 to reach terms on an extension. If no deal is reached, he will have to play out the season on the tag or the Bengals can still trade him.

Much like the Niners, the Bengals are likely going to have to decide between two talented receivers. With Ja’Marr Chase’s fifth-year option coming up, they have to have money set aside to give him a contract that keeps up with the market.

That’s going to make it hard to fit in a top-tier WR2 contract for Higgins.

Trading him now would make sense, but the timing is off. The Bills just traded Stefon Diggs for a second-round pick. Keenan Allen went for a fourth, and Jerry Jeudy was dealt for fifth- and sixth-round picks.

Perhaps a team would be willing to offer a late first- or early second-round pick on draft night. But the likelihood of a trade seems to be shifting. Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reported the Bengals “remain resolute on having Higgins return this season in an attempt to win the Super Bowl.”

If that’s the mindset, it would seem more likely that the Bengals will let Higgins play out 2024 on the franchise tag, hope the compensatory formula will give them a third-round pick when they lose him in free agency and move on.

Prediction: Higgins will sign with another team next offseason

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 of 8

Chris GodwinJohn Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The fact that Chris Godwin is a bit of an under-the-radar free agent in this class speaks to its depth at wide receiver. Godwin has put up at least 1,000 yards in four of the last five seasons.

After dealing with a few injuries in recent years, he played in all 17 games for the Bucs this season. Now, he’ll enter the final year of a three-year extension he signed in 2022. The club showed him some loyalty by signing him to a $60 million contract when he was coming off a torn ACL at the end of the 2021 season.

Godwin has rewarded the Bucs with strong seasons under his extension, but last year there was a dip in production. His catch percentage went down nearly 10 percent while he only scored two touchdowns.

Some of that is tied to usage and quarterback play, though. Baker Mayfield did well as the Bucs quarterback, but he was still a downgrade from Tom Brady. Godwin also only played 293 slot snaps compared to 489 the previous season, per Player Profiler.

New offensive coordinator Liam Coen plans to put Godwin back in the slot more.

The Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year deal and re-upped Mike Evans for two more years. Right or wrong, it feels like they are committed to the current configuration of their offense.

That would seemingly include making sure that Godwin gets another extension.

Prediction: Godwin signs a three-year extension after the 2024 season