Fantasy Football: Week 4 sleepers headlined by the ever-underrated Geno Smith

Week 3 was the best sleeper page of the fantasy football season, with Jauan Jennings smashing and Chuba Hubbard rising to RB6. Some of the other picks were minor hits; Andrei Iosivas was the WR22 and Zach Ertz had what’s passable for a tight end game in 2024.

Alas, you’re only as good as your last envelope. Let’s get to Week 4 sleepers.

QB Geno Smith at Lions (43% rostered)The Seahawks know their way around the 313; they visited Detroit last September and escaped with an entertaining 37-31 overtime victory. This year’s Lions might not be as pinball friendly, however; the Detroit defense is a little improved (Aidan Hutchinson’s pass-rushing chops make the secondary look better) and Jared Goff has not been sharp to open the year. Vegas called for 52.5 points between the Lions and Cardinals last week and the game never got close to that number; the market has corrected in Week 4, with a 46.5 total set for Monday night.

Nonetheless, Smith is playing at a high level. His low touchdown rate is likely a fluke, and he’s above league average in YPA, completion percentage and completion percentage (a sizzling 74.8% clip). Maybe this pick is more about floor than upside, but Seattle’s fun receiver room also adds something to the case.

QB Andy Dalton vs. Bengals (12% rostered)All we wanted from Dalton last week was competent play. Instead, he was a star — the No. 6 quarterback of the week per PFF metrics. Even if you just care about the basic stats, Dalton smashed — 319 passing yards, three touchdowns. And the next assignment is a Cincinnati secondary that was toasted by Washington for three hours. Count me in.

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RB Rico Dowdle at Giants (47% rostered)If you’re a Dallas fan, you’d like to burn the tape of the last two weeks. Little has gone right. But we have to note how Dowdle appears to be zooming past Ezekiel Elliott in the pecking order. Last week Dowdle logged 37 snaps to Zeke’s 15, and he had 13 opportunities (rushes and targets) to Elliott’s five.

Obviously Dallas trailed for three hours against Baltimore, and that type of game script will generally favor Dowdle. But all of the efficiency stats point to the younger Dowdle — he’s beating Elliott in yards per run, yards per catch, and (logically) yards per touch. Sitting at a desperate 1-2, the Cowboys need to lean into their best players.

RB Roschon Johnson vs. Rams (15% rostered)Maybe there’s no right answer in the Chicago backfield, but D’Andre Swift sure looks like a wrong answer. He’s plodding along at 1.8 yards per carry and ranks 50th among 51 qualified runners in success rate. Even a juicy Colts matchup in Week 3 did not get Swift going.

The Chicago offensive line has not played well, so our expectations have to be modest. But while Swift did nothing with his 13 carries last week (20 yards), Johnson managed 30 yards on his eight attempts. A 3.8 YPC isn’t parade worthy, sure, but it probably leads Johnson to an expanded role in Week 4. The Rams rushing defense has actually been stout, but so much of the running back puzzle in fantasy football is solving the opportunity.

RB Tyler Badie at Jets (2% rostered)This is more of a deep-league stash than someone to play this week, unless you’re in a huge league and backed into a corner. Badie’s quasi-breakout game came on 13 snaps at Tampa Bay, mostly a garbage-time performance. But at least he broke off some successful runs; meanwhile, Javonte Williams (2.2 YPC) and Jaleel McLaughin (2.2) haven’t been producing.

Head coaches know that September is about player evaluation, and it folds into better decisions down the road. Consider the cadence of Denver’s season last year; it had an embarrassing 70-20 loss at Miami in Week 3, and sat at 1-5 through six weeks. The Broncos finished the year on a 7-4 run, as Sean Payton started to recognize who his best players were. Perhaps the flow of this season will be similar. I added some speculation Badie shares this week in my deepest leagues; it’s still in the longshot file, but you can squint and see plausible upside.

WR Xavier Legette vs. Bengals (12% rostered)Obviously, Diontae Johnson is the alpha target for Carolina, but there’s room for at least one more useful pass-catcher. Adam Thielen was on his way last week (3-40-1) but injured his hamstring during a pretty touchdown catch; he’s out multiple games. That leads to a collection of plausible sleepers. Legette is the first name I’ll look at, but the group could include Jonathan Mingo and tight end Tommy Tremble.

Mingo ran more routes than Legette last week, 28 to 20 (working off 39 Andy Dalton dropbacks). But how a team handles an injury in-game often differs from what it does with a week to prepare. Legette’s efficiency has been better than Mingo’s in their respective limited samples, so that’s why he’s my first read in this spot.

TE Tyler Conklin vs. Broncos (27% rostered)I’m torn on Conklin’s Week 3 breakout. A 6-93-0 line from a tight end in 2024 has you hugging strangers; it led to a TE5 finish. Conklin also rarely comes off the field for New York, logging a 90% or greater snap share for three straight weeks. That said, most of Conklin’s work against New England came on secondary reads; it’s lovely that Aaron Rodgers is skilled enough to find these opportunities, but we need more first-read targets before Conklin graduates to Circle of Trust privileges.

The shape of the Denver defense breaks the tie. The Broncos are the second-stingiest defense when it comes to allowing WR fantasy points this year (Patrick Surtain II — the top reason, but far from the only one), but the interior defense is less stout, and tight ends have scored over the league mean against this unit. Conklin’s profile has pluses and minuses, but this feels like a good Week 4 spot for him.

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. Browns (26% rostered)Cleveland probably should bench Deshaun Watson, but the Browns invested so much in their franchise quarterback that they’re reluctant to make a change. Watson’s play has been awful by any metric — he sits 27th in rating, 28th in play success, 25th in touchdown rate and 26th in passing yards (despite the third-most attempts). He’s also taken a league-worst 16 sacks.

Las Vegas was terrible in the Week 3 ambush loss to Andy Dalton and Carolina, and that might actually embolden the pick here. Antonio Pierce has put his roster on alert, and I suspect that will lead to a more engaged performance. So often, it’s a zig-zag league.