Favorites and Sleepers for Every Major NBA Award

Grant Hughes@@gt_hughesFeatured Columnist IVNovember 26, 2024Favorites and Sleepers for Every Major NBA Award0 of 7

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A month into the 2024-25 NBA season, it’s time to check in on how the awards races are taking shape.

We’ll do that by highlighting the early front-runner for each honor along with a down-ballot sleeper to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

There’s a lot of room between favorites and sleepers, and it’s populated by players who’ll have real chances to win the award. We’ll mention members of that crowded middle group in some cases, but the idea here is to isolate the clearest leader, zip past other high-end contenders and toss in a long-odds dark-horse to monitor and/or mention to impress your friends in conversation.

Let’s see who’s best positioned to collect some hardware and who might sneak in to make the race more interesting.

MVP1 of 7

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Favorite: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Jokić owns three of the last four MVP awards, and his numbers this season are better than they’ve ever been. That’s where his case as the clear favorite starts. But after appreciating his per-game averages 30.3 points, a league-leading 13.9 rebounds, 11.3 assists and double-take-inducing 56.3 percent shooting from three-point range, we have to progress to the other aspect of Jokić’s candidacy that solidifies his case: on-off impact.

The Nuggets’ net rating is a preposterous 33.1 points per 100 possessions better with Jokić on the floor than off, easily the best figure among players in contention for this award and a testament to the truly unique level of control Jokić exerts over every game he plays. Denver performs like a championship team when he’s on the floor and turns into a worse version of the Washington Wizards when he sits. It’s hard to find a better indicator of his value than that.

As long as the Nuggets are anywhere near the West’s top six, this is Jokić’s award to lose. The individual numbers and impact on winning make him a runaway favorite through the season’s first month.

Sleeper: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

The Dubs will have to continue winning at least 75 percent of their games for Curry to have any shot at a third MVP, but between team success and his own per-minute impact, he fits right in as a down-ballot sleeper for the moment.

Steph is fourth in the league in Estimated Plus/Minus, shooting 43.7 percent from three and averaging 6.5 assists per game, his highest figure (in a full season) since winning the 2015-16 MVP unanimously. That’s an impressive feat, considering Curry is on pace to average fewer than 30.0 minutes per game. That limit on his playing time, part of a team-wide scheme to emphasize depth, suppresses his other counting stats and will make it hard to argue his cumulative impact will match up with some of the higher-volume candidates by season’s end. Odds are the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum and Luka Dončić will have more robust cases.

Still, if Curry continues to play like this and the Warriors stay atop the West standings, it’ll give him a shot.

Defensive Player of the Year2 of 7

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Favorite: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Put simply, we’ve never seen a defender like Wembanyama before.

He suppresses opponent effective field-goal percentage when on the floor by 7.1 percentage points, and opponents shoot 40.4 percent when Wemby is designated the primary defender inside six feet, an unheard of hit rate in an area of the floor where field-goal percentages are hovering around 66.0 percent this season.

For reference, Rudy Gobert won DPOY last year and allowed opponents to hit 49.4 percent of their shots at that range. Wemby is blowing that number away.

Knowing all that, it should come as no surprise that Wembanyama is running away with the league lead in blocks. If anything, his swat numbers could decline as offensive players simply stop trying to shoot when he’s in the vicinity.

Sleeper: Tari Eason, Houston Rockets

Steal maven Dyson Daniels would like a word on the matter, but Rockets forward Tari Eason has been the most disruptive defensive force in the league this season.

Alex Caruso is the only player averaging more deflections per game in fewer minutes than Eason. All those tipped passes create a hugely positive spike in Houston’s transition offense.

His block rate ranks in the 98th percentile among forwards, and his steal rate is tops at the position, sitting firmly in the 100th percentile. Dribbling and passing are risky ventures with Eason on the floor, as he preys on the slightest miscalculation or lapse in attention, flipping the typical basketball dynamic upside-down by attacking players who are supposed to be on the offensive.

He’s tied for fifth in BBall Index’s Defensive LeBron catch-all metric, despite playing fewer minutes than anyone ranked above him.

Rookie of the Year3 of 7

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Favorite: Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers

First of all, no, we don’t let players decide who’s the favorite for an award, even if McCain proclaimed himself the winner.

Then again, he’s not wrong.

McCain has been one of the only bright spots in a dismal start for the Philadelphia 76ers, a fact that actually underscores how badly things have gone for the team to this point.

“We definitely got to step our s–t up,” teammate Paul George said on a recent episode of Podcast P. “He can’t be our most consistent player.”

McCain leads all rookies in total points, despite ranking eighth in minutes. Though it took him several games to get a real shot at a rotation role, the 6’3″ guard has thrived since earning significant playing time. McCain is averaging 16.5 points and 2.7 assists per game for the season but puts up averages of 26.6 points and 5.2 assists with a 67.1 true shooting percentage as a starter.

If the award were handed out today, it’d be a two-man race with McCain nosing past fellow mid-round steal Dalton Knecht.

Sleeper: Donovan ‘Cling Kong’ Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

Zach Edey would also be a safe pick if you had to confine your ROY sleeper to the “Hulking Big Man” category, but don’t overlook Clingan’s recent entry into the conversation.

The UConn product registered 17 points, 12 rebounds and eight blocks in a Nov. 13 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves and has carried on hoarding boards (19 more against the Rockets on Nov. 23) and swatting shots ever since. And even though it took him until Nov. 12 to crack 20 minutes of playing time in a game, Clingan has still put together an impressive streak by blocking at least one shot in every game he’s played.

If the Blazers move on from the other centers on the roster—chiefly Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III—it could open up the playing time Clingan needs to produce defensive numbers that’ll get him more notice, perhaps helping him climb out of the sleeper category altogether.

Most Improved4 of 7

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Favorite: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic

A brutal dip in three-point shooting as a sophomore last year obscured Franz Wagner’s gains as a passer, defender and foul-drawer. Now that the Magic forward’s perimeter stroke (35.7 percent) is back in line with career norms, his continued growth stands out even more strongly.

With Paolo Banchero sidelined for an extended stretch by an oblique injury, Wagner has become a star. The much side-eyed max deal he signed over the offseason looked like the riskiest among his class’ rookie extensions. Now that Wagner is averaging 23.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists and operating as an offensive alpha for a top-four team in the East, it seems like a no-brainer in hindsight.

Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors

Not everything about Barrett’s game has improved this season. He’s shooting the ball worse from the field and from three compared to 2023-24 and is turning it over more often than ever. But his leap as a playmaker and success in assuming a much more important offensive role is exactly the kind of “new skill” that MIP should reward.

Barret has five games with at least eight assists in his entire career, and four of them have come in the last month. He set a new career high when he handed out 15 dimes en route to a triple-double during an overtime loss to the Celtics on Nov. 16. And when he’s been pressured to score by defenses, he’s happily obliged.

Barrett combined for 80 points and 24 free-throw attempts across a pair of wins against Indiana and Minnesota on Nov. 18 and Nov. 21, respectively.

All in all, the 24-year-old is posting personal highs of 23.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game in the highest-usage role of his career.

Sixth Man of the Year5 of 7

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Favorite: Buddy Hield, Golden State Warriors

Oddsmakers like Hield about as much as Boston’s Payton Pritchard after a month of the season, and this could really be a co-favorite spot split between the two of them. We’re going with Hield because of the higher-volume and more accurate three-point shooting, along with the veteran sniper’s undeniable impact on Golden State’s league-best bench performance.

Hield’s marksmanship isn’t a surprise. He’s canning 44.1 percent from deep and his 6.9 made triples per 100 possessions leads the league.

You can’t watch a Warriors broadcast without hearing a reference to the fact that he made more threes than anyone (including Steph Curry) over the five seasons prior to this one. But Hield’s relentless movement off the ball, headlong sprints in transition and surprising defensive activity levels are all key features of an uptempo, frenetic Warriors bench identity that has shaped this hugely successful season.

Sleeper: Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers

It says a lot about Jerome that his 29-point eruption against the New Orleans Pelicans on Nov. 20 didn’t really register as a shock. Ditto for his 26 points and four steals against the Raptors on Nov. 24. Jerome has been stringing together the best games of his career lately and has been one of the best backup guards in the league all year.

Career-high averages of 12.6 points and 3.8 assists on a 59.7/54.4/87.9 shooting split tell some of the tale, but you have to watch Jerome play to really get an understanding of just how confident and aggressive he’s been off Cleveland’s bench. He’s been a predatory steal-snatcher on defense and seemingly hasn’t missed a floater since the season started. His 67.7 percent hit rate in the 3-10 foot range is elite but somehow seems low.

A conference-leading Cavs team is getting bench contributions from guys beyond Jerome—Caris LeVert warrants mention here—but his out-of-nowhere rise makes him a strong sleeper pick.

Coach of the Year6 of 7

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Favorite: Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs’ 15-0 start and continued place atop the East standings may have sealed this season’s Coach of the Year winner early. Already, we’ve seen loads of coverage of Atkinson’s success in Cleveland, crediting him for installing a more dynamic offensive system and, most importantly, unlocking the best version of Evan Mobley.

With a shot profile that looks very similar to last year’s, it’s fair to say the Cavs’ surge to No. 1 in scoring efficiency owes mostly to the ball going in the basket more often. That’s not necessarily attributable to coaching, but it’s also true that Cleveland is attacking with a sharper edge. Its 54.6 drives per game is a major improvement over last year’s 48.9.

The Cavs are performing on the floor, the vibes seem perfect and the narrative momentum behind an Atkinson COY win seems (deservedly) irreversible.

Sleeper: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets

Joined by Steve Kerr, JJ Redick, Jamahl Mosely, Joe Mazzulla, Tyronn Lue and a half-dozen others, Udoka is in a cluster of coaches chasing Atkinson. He stands out among that group because he’s got the Rockets all the way up to No. 2 in defensive efficiency, a rise fueled by a level of relentless intensity almost no other team can match.

Add to that his success in navigating a deep rotation full of young players who need minutes, shrewd deployment of the terrifying Amen Thompson-Tari Eason combo and a general level of competitive consistency on both ends, and you get a good sense of Udoka’s impact on one of the West’s top rising threats.

Clutch Player7 of 7

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Favorite: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

De’Aaron Fox leads all players in total clutch points, but Jokić has him beat in rebounds, assists and made free throws, despite playing fewer close-and-late minutes than the Kings guard. Efficiency is really where Jokić separates himself from Fox (who’ll probably split votes with teammate DeMar DeRozan anyway) and the rest of the field.

Among players who’ve attempted at least 25 clutch shots, Jokić’s 52.0 percent hit rate is the best in the league. And among those who’ve gotten up at least five three-point tries, Jokić is again the most efficient.

Put the numbers aside and ask yourself if there’s another player on the planet you’d rather have making decisions in tight situations. As long as Jokić gets enough chances to keep his clutch counting stats high, he’ll deserve the win.

Sleeper: Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns

Phoenix struggled in close games last season, but those issues seemed like a thing of the past when Durant was healthy to start 2024-25. Prior to going down with a calf strain, KD presided over the Suns’ 7-0 mark in the clutch, hitting 12-of-19 shots overall and helping them to a plus-29 plus/minus in just under 32 minutes.

Once he’s back and in form, Durant will have a chance to add to that unblemished record, possibly challenging Jokić, Fox, DeRozan, LaMelo Ball, Jayson Tatum and all the other contenders who’ve built statistical advantages with him on the sidelines.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.