Final Four Predictions 2024: Early Projections Following Men’s NCAA Bracket Release

Final Four Predictions 2024: Early Projections Following Men’s NCAA Bracket Release0 of 4

Zach Edey of PurdueMichael Hickey/Getty Images

The selection committee has spoken and the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament field is set. Now it’s time to try to figure out which four teams will remain when college basketball’s best descend upon State Farm Arena in Phoenix when April rolls around.

The committee narrowed the field of competitors down to 68 teams. Now we get to sit back and enjoy the chaos unfold.

There are plenty of fans and analysts who are going to fill their bracket with chalk. We saw how quickly that plan can backfire in last year’s tournament. The Final Four teams from yesteryear were two five-seeds, a four-seed and a nine-seed.

Madness indeed.

Counting on that kind of Final Four this season might be a doomed strategy. Every tournament is unique and that was a wild result.

But there’s still a good case to go off the beaten path for at least a few of the regions in this year’s tournament. Here’s a look at each region through the lens of an early Final Four prediction.

East: No. 1 UConn Huskies1 of 4

UConn guard Tristen NewtonG Fiume/Getty Images

There will be a lot more people who see UConn coming this season. Last year, the Huskies won the national title as a four seed. After an up-and-down regular season they really turned things on at the end of the season and shredded through the tournament.

This year, they’ve picked up right where they left off.

UConn has only lost one game since the calendar turned to 2024. That was a 19-point anomaly in which the Creighton Blue Jays hit 14-of-28 three-point shots at home while the Huskies went just 3-of-16 from downtown.

That kind of shooting disparity feels like that’s the only thing that is going to keep them from coming out of this region. Otherwise, they are just too complete. They can go nine-deep and Tristen Newton has proven he can carry the scoring load on any given day if he has to. Add in the experience that several players have from last season’s title run and it’s hard to pick against Dan Hurley’s Huskies.

Florida Atlantic and Auburn will be teams to watch who could spoil the Huskies run. The Owls await them in the Round of 32 after making a run to the Final Four last season. Auburn ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.

Iowa State lurks as the No. 2 seed in the region. They are one of the top teams in the country at forcing turnovers so UConn will have to be at their best offensively to return to the Final Four.

South: No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders2 of 4

Texas Tech guard Pop IsaacsScott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The South is where some madness could go down this season.

The Houston Cougars are the top seed and come into the tournament with a 30-4 record. However, they are coming into the tournament off a 28-point loss to the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 semifinal.

Everything that should scare you about the Cougars came to fruition in the game. Houston is 228th in effective field goal percentage at just 49.7 percent. The Cougars shot just 26.8 percent from the field and Iowa State made 50 percent of their shots.

They are an efficient offense but a lot of that is because of their snail’s pace.

The No. 2 seed isn’t all that scary either. Marquette has the most losses (9) of any two-seed in the field and they don’t get to the free-throw line (344th in free-throw rate) or rebound particularly well.

Kentucky is once again loaded with NBA prospects and can light up the scoreboard, but they also have a shoddy defense that is 125th in efficiency.

So if there’s going to be a surprising Final Four team, it feels like it’s coming from this region.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders could be the team that does it. They take 41.1 percent of their shots from beyond the arc and hit them at a 36.5 percent clip as a team. They also play good enough defense ranking 48th in defensive efficiency.

The Red Raiders are a long shot, but they went 4-4 in their Quad 1-A games this season, don’t have a ton of weaknesses and could get hot from three. That’s a scary combination this time of year.

Midwest: No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers3 of 4

Purdue center Zach EdeyMichael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Some people are going to refuse to put Purdue in their Final Four. It’s hard to blame them. The Boilermakers haven’t lived up to the hype come tournament time recently.

They have been eliminated by a double-digit seed in each of the last three seasons. That included the loss to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson that incinerated several brackets before they even got started last year.

But this is a good time to remind everyone that Virginia followed up their 2018 loss to the No. 16 UMBC Retrievers with a national championship in the 2019 tournament.

The Boilermakers are a more balanced team than they were last season. They don’t rely so heavily on Zach Edey. Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer all average double-digit points per game.

Tennessee is the major threat in the bracket. The No. 2 seed backed into the tournament with back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Mississippi State, but they have wins over Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky.

They battled Purdue to a four-point loss back in November and we could get treated to a sequel.

Gonzaga can’t be discounted as a five-seed. The Bulldogs were eighth in offensive efficiency this season and take care of the basketball, rocking a 14 percent turnover percentage.

West: No. 2 Arizona Wildcats4 of 4

Pelle Larson (3) and Caleb Love (2) of ArizonaBrian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The battle for the final No. 1 seed was hotly contested and the North Carolina Tar Heels will have their work cut out for them.

Arizona might be the second seed in the West Region, but they rank higher than North Carolina by KenPom’s metrics and strike a good balance between offensive and defensive efficiency.

The Wildcats are a dominant rebounding team which could go a long way in broadening their margin for error. They ranked 16th in offensive rebound rate and fifth in defensive rebound rate.

Caleb Love can light up the scoreboard. He averages 18.1 points per game and Pelle Larsson is a legitimate NBA prospect who shoots 43 percent from three-point range. The Wildcats also love to push the pace which could play to their advantage.

If you’re looking for a major upset team to make the Final Four the winner of the Mississippi State vs. Michigan State game is an intriguing pick. The winner will get a matchup with North Carolina who just lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.

Mississippi State pulled off an upset of their own with a win over top-seeded Tennessee. Then they turned around gave Auburn a run for their money in the next round.

A Tom Izzo-coached team is generally dangerous in March and the Spartans are eighth in defensive efficiency.