Gilbert Burns explains why he wasn’t surprised by Belal Muhammad’s dominant title win

Belal Muhammad may have been the underdog heading into his title fight against Leon Edwards at UFC 304, but he quickly proved his championship mettle.

After waiting more than a year to fight for UFC gold, Muhammad made the most of his opportunity with a stunning performance to dethrone Edwards and claim the welterweight title. As much as it seemed like the odds were stacked against Muhammad heading into the fight, one of his former foes had a lot of faith that he would become champion.

Gilbert Burns, the last person to face Muhammad prior to his title fight, wasn’t surprised by the result. He says he predicted the UFC 304 upset well before it happened.

“I kind of saw that coming,” Burns told MMA Fighting. “Especially [because] Leon is a great fighter, but whenever he was saying, ‘I’m going to knock this guy out’ — bro, it’s hard to knock Belal out. The guy has a chin. Leon Edwards in the last, I don’t know, 10 fights, he has maybe one knockout against Kamaru [Usman]. Other than that, he doesn’t knock people out.

“On technique, striking-wise, Leon Edwards is very, very good, but putting everything together with the pace, with the volume, staying in your face with takedowns, dirty boxing, especially doing the camp with Islam [Makhachev] and Khabib [Nurmagomedov], I kind of felt that was the path for Belal to win — and he did exactly what he had to.”

At the end of the day, Burns was one of only a few who foresaw Muhammad’s impressive performance. He expected Edwards to put up a better fight than he did that night in Manchester, England, but ultimately Muhammad left no doubt about his mettle, largely dominating the fight both on the feet and with his grappling across five rounds to become UFC champion.

“I wasn’t impressed — I knew what he was doing,” Burns said. “He had a long layoff preparing for this fight and I think he was feeding off the [fact that] UFC made him wait, Leon made him wait. He was fed up from that. He was very hungry. He worked super hard. You saw he was in amazing shape.

“I just thought Leon would do a little bit better job defending, but I still [expected to see] Belal overwhelming him with work. Belal looked very good in becoming champion. People cannot deny him anymore.”

Immediately after his win, Muhammad started looking toward the future, laying out plans to defend his title against the biggest and best challenges UFC can throw at him.

Despite living in the “money fight” era where picking popular opponents sometimes trumps more worthy contenders, Muhammad made it clear that he wants to be a fighting champion who takes out the top contenders in his welterweight division.

That list potentially starts with undefeated wrecking machine Shavkat Rakhmonov, and Burns appreciates that Muhammad recognized that right away.

“He’s a good champion,” Burns said. “I think he’s doing a good thing facing Shavkat [Rakhmonov], the toughest competition out there, whoever is the No. 1 [ranked contender]. I like what he’s doing.”

Because UFC has already mapped out the rest of the schedule for 2024, there’s a good chance Muhammad won’t fight again this year. All of the remaining major pay-per-view cards are effectively booked aside from an official confirmation regarding Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 in November, and then the year-end card at UFC 310 on Dec. 7.

If Muhammad doesn’t defend his title in 2024, Burns likes the idea of a true No. 1 contender emerging with Rakhmonov potentially facing another top-ranked welterweight.

“In the whole division, I think [Rakhmonov is] the guy that deserves it the most, but I know he was going to fight Jack Della Maddalena,” Burns said. “That was a good fight, but Jack still has an injury on his arm, he had a couple operations making the arm good. But if Belal is not ready this year, I think Shavkat should do one more this year, maybe [against] Jack or maybe Ian Garry. I think those are the guys at the top. Kamaru is there but it’s three losses [in a row], he kind of doesn’t necessarily deserve it right now. Colby [Covington is there, too], but he’s not doing anything. Leon, I don’t think he deserves a rematch right now.

“Shavkat against Jack or Ian Garry would make a lot of sense to be next. Shavkat could be next if Belal is ready to go in Abu Dhabi or in Salt Lake City, but if he has to postpone due to these injuries, Shavkat might do one more to get it so we have a clear No. 1 contender.”