Global inflation to fall to 5.8% in 2024 – IMF

On January 31, 2024, 9:25 PM

Global headline inflation is expected to fall from an estimated 6.8% in 2023 (annual average) to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, the IMF has disclosed in its January 2024 World Economic Outlook Report.

The global forecast is unrevised for 2024 compared with October 2023 projections and revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2025.

Advanced economies are expected to see faster disinflation, with inflation falling by 2.0 percentage points in 2024 to 2.6%, than are emerging market and developing economies, where inflation is projected to decline by just 0.3 percentage points to 8.1%.

The forecast is revised down for both 2024 and 2025 for advanced economies, while it is revised up for 2024 for emerging market and developing economies, mainly on account of Argentina where the realignment of relative prices and elimination of legacy price controls, past currency depreciation, and the related pass-through into prices is expected to increase inflation in the near term.

The drivers of declining inflation differ by country but generally reflect lower core inflation as a result of still-tight monetary policies, a related softening in labor markets, and pass-through effects from earlier and ongoing declines in relative energy prices.

Overall, about 80% of the world’s economies are expected to see lower annual average headline and core inflation in 2024.

Among economies with an inflation target, headline inflation is projected to be 0.6 percentage points above target for the median economy by the fourth quarter of 2024, down from an estimated gap of 1.7 percentage points at the end of 2023.

Most of these economies are expected to reach their targets (or target range midpoints) by 2025. In several major economies, the downward revision to the projected path of inflation, combined with a modest upgrade to economic activity, implies a softer-than-expected landing.