GLP-1 market will be worth more than iPhone, report suggests

GLP-1 drugs are already a success story, making Novo Nordisk, maker of Wegovy and Ozempic, until recently Europe’s highest valued company. However, it appears that the sector is only just getting started.

The market for GLP-1 drugs alone could eventually be nearly twice as large as that for Apple’s iPhone was in its first decade, a new report from the Initiative for Medicines, Access & Knowledge (I-MAK) reveals

GLP-1’s trajectory as one of unprecedented growth, even greater than its current level of success, the report, which explores the impact of the sector’s financialisation on health inequities, suggests.

Growth and projected growth for GLP-1sGLP-1 drugs have already generated an accumulative $71bn (€64bn). in US revenue since their launch. Ozempic alone accounts for half of this total.

But this is just the start. GLP-1 drugs (specifically Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound) are projected to amass another $400bn (€363bn) by 2030, bringing the total up to $470bn (€426bn).

This means that in their first decade on sale, products containing semaglutide and tirzepatide are projected to be worth almost double that of Apple’s iPhone in its own first decade, which was $260bn (€236bn).

These drugs have outsold, or are projected to outsell, other “lifestyle-based” drugs, such as Viagra and Prozac, the report says.

In its first full five years on the market, Prozac generated $4bn (€3.6bn) of revenue, and Viagra $7bn (€6.3bn). In contrast, Ozempic generated $13bn ($11.8bn).

Looking to the future, the differences are even more stark. Wegovy is projected to generate $38bn (€34bn) in its first five years, Mounjaro $53bn (€48bn) and Zepbound $66bn (€60bn).

Such growth is massively propelling its parent companies’ revenues to the point where it now makes up a large part of them. By the end of 2024, major GLP-1 products accounted for 82% of Novo Nordisk’s revenues and 48% of Eli Lilly’s.

Impact on health inequities This vast growth does not come without its drawbacks, according to the report.

Both companies patent minor modifications to the products, and use “patent thickets” (a range of overlapping patents), to make competition more difficult, the report alleges. These patents cover things such as formulations, delivery devices, and combinations with other drugs.

The upshot of this, the report suggests, is that it delays competition and makes it more difficult for other companies to to compete, allowing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to keep prices high. This means those of lower socio-economic backgrounds will be required to spend more for access to drugs that could provide significant health benefits.

Drugs such as Mounjaro and Wegovy cost around $1,000 a month, according to the report, meaning that those on low incomes may have difficulty accessing them. On top of this, many of the US’s health insurance companies do not include weight loss drugs in their coverage.

If competition was not made more difficult by patent thickets, the report alleges, then generic competition would be easier and prices would be lowered by the need to compete. This would make the drugs more accessible for people of a lower income, many of whom are racial minorities.

Novo Nordisk declined to comment. Eli Lilly was contacted for comment.