Here’s Where Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Stand Ahead of the New Hampshire Primary

If you can believe it, Nikki Haley is where she wants to be. Thanks to the early expiration of Ron DeSantis’s campaign, the former South Carolina governor, who began her presidential bid as a novel but largely unwelcome throwback to the Republican Party’s neoconservative past, is officially staring down a one-on-one matchup with Donald Trump. In fact, according to her plans, she is one month ahead of schedule: The Haley campaign had anticipated that South Carolina’s February 24 primary would be her best shot at a two-person race, rather than New Hampshire, which will hold its primary vote on Tuesday.

“Can you hear that sound?” Haley, reacting to the news of DeSantis suspending his campaign Sunday, asked a crowd of supporters gathered inside a New Hampshire gymnasium. “That’s the sound of a two-person race.”

And yet, Haley’s chances of mounting a serious challenge remain dubious. A Washington Post–Monmouth University poll released Sunday found Trump’s support at 52% and Haley’s at 34% among potential primary voters In New Hampshire. (The poll was conducted before DeSantis dropped out; his share of support was 8%.) In the unlikely event that the majority of DeSantis supporters decide to back Haley—an unlikely changeover, given Haley and DeSantis’s substantive differences and DeSantis endorsement of Trump—she would still trail Trump by low double digits. Haley had a slightly more favorable showing in another new poll from CNN and the University of New Hampshire. That survey had her support at 39%, Trump’s at 50%, and DeSantis’s at 6%. But as far as a Trump lead is concerned, that’s still well outside the margin of error.

If that margin is still nerve-racking to Trumpworld, the campaign needs only to look ahead for a boost of confidence. Haley is performing significantly worse in other upcoming states on the primary calendar. The former president leads Haley by more than 30 points in South Carolina and nearly 50 points in Michigan, according to polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight. His support appears even more robust in Nevada, which will convene for its primary caucuses on February 8. 

Given Trump’s age and the scores of criminal charges he faces, things could change in the coming months. But his continued support among the GOP base seems to contradict the long-clung-to theory that he might be vulnerable if only anti-Trump Republicans would settle their differences and rally behind one candidate. That candidate has now emerged, and Trump is unperturbed.

Meanwhile, Haley is finally sharpening her attacks against Trump. Still, they remain relatively mild compared to the barbs he has thrown her way. Seizing upon widespread discontent toward Trump, Joe Biden, and the prospect of another general election between the two, Haley told CNN that the men are “equally bad” for America, and claimed both are too preoccupied with past “drama” and “vendettas.”

“I don’t think we need to have two 80-year-olds sitting in the White House…. We need to know they’re at the top of their game,” she said during an interview Sunday. “Right now, I don’t know that people feel like that with either one. So that’s why we’re giving them a choice.” (A new NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll found that 59% of Americans would be unenthused by a Trump-Biden rematch.) The comments came a day after Haley suggested Trump, 77, may not be “mentally fit” to serve as president again, a reference to him confusing her with Nancy Pelosi during a campaign speech last week.

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