Hezbollah and Israel appear to want to avoid major confrontation

On January 4, 2024, 11:03 PM

At the funeral of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy Hamas leader assassinated in Beirut two days ago, crowds carried banners with his picture and waved the group’s green flag through the streets amid the sound of music, prayers and heavy gunfire.

Across Lebanon, many watched the procession on TV, wondering how the killing would affect their country.

Al-Arouri’s assassination was a blow for Hamas, but it also hit its ally Hezbollah, the powerful Iranian-backed Lebanese movement, as it struck Dahiyeh, a suburb of the city that is a stronghold of the group.

This raised fears of a wider conflict in the region but both Hezbollah and Israel appear to be indicating they want to avoid a major confrontation, at least for now.

In Tel Aviv, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant reaffirmed his country’s determination to change the security situation in northern Israel, to allow the return of residents evacuated due to Hezbollah’s constant attacks.

There was a “short window of time for diplomatic understandings, which we prefer”, he said, as he met US envoy Amos Hochstein.

This came a day after a speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the influential Hezbollah leader, who described al-Arouri’s killing as a “flagrant Israeli aggression” but, crucially, gave no open threats to act against Israel.

Nasrallah, who is expected to address his supporters again on Friday, needs to be seen to be giving a response to the attack in Beirut.

But any reaction is likely to be calibrated to avoid a strong retaliation from Israel – and the potential of another catastrophic conflict for Lebanon.