Houston vs Montreal

Sports Mole previews Sunday’s MLS Playoffs clash between Houston Dynamo and CF Montreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Paying their first visit to Shell Energy Stadium since 2022, CF Montreal take on the Houston Dynamo Saturday on matchday 18 of the MLS campaign for both teams.

In their previous match, the Dynamo were beaten 3-1 by Sporting Kansas City, while Le CFM lost 3-0 at home to the New England Revolution.

Match preview

Weeks of positive play and solid results ended for Houston recently, as they saw their four-match MLS unbeaten run snapped the last time out.

Ben Olsen’s men are still outside of the playoff picture but in a much better position thanks to that run, sitting two points below the Colorado Rapids for that final post-season berth in the West.

So far this year the Dynamo have lost five matches in the league at Shell Energy Stadium, which is as many as they suffered at home in their previous two domestic campaigns combined.

Of the 25 goals that they have conceded in the regular season so far this year, 16 of them have taken place at Shell Energy Stadium.

They have points in three of their previous four MLS meetings against Eastern Conference teams, posting two clean sheets in those three contests.

Orange Crush are winless versus Canadian opposition at home, since a 4-1 triumph in Houston over the Vancouver Whitecaps in September 2023.

The first victory of the regular season for Montreal seems to have only temporarily masked this team’s deficiencies in MLS this year.

Since defeating New York City FC 1-0 in May, Marco Donadel’s men have claimed just two points from their last five league contests.

Over that stretch, Le CFM have given up a combined 16 goals, while they have now conceded the second-most in the competition this season, behind DC United (36).

With 11 defeats after 17 domestic contests this year, Montreal are just two shy of equalling their total from the 2024 regular season.

They have a long way to go if they are to make the playoffs on consecutive occasions, currently 17 points below the post-season line in the East.

That said they have collected at least a point in their last three meetings versus the Dynamo, including a 3-2 win in their previous visit to Houston in 2022, to date their only triumph against them away from home.

Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer form:

Houston Dynamo form (all competitions):

CF Montreal Major League Soccer form:

CF Montreal form (all competitions):

Leg injuries kept Daniel Steres and Erik Sviatchenko on the Dynamo sidelines against Sporting KC, while Andrew Tarbell is out with a cruciate ligament tear and Nelson Quinones has a knee issue.

Sebastian Kowalczyk had the opening goal of that previous match for Orange Crush, his first of the 2025 Major League Soccer campaign.

On the Montreal side, Fabian Herbers and Bryce Duke missed their last game with unknown problems, Dominik Yankov was dealing with tightness in his groin and Hennadiy Synchuk had a leg issue.

Giacomo Vrioni was given a straight red card in the opening half against his former team, while Nathan Saliba and Joel Waterman received cautions and all three players will be suspended on Saturday.

Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:

Bond; Dorsey, Awodesu, Ortiz, Andrade; Urso, Artur; McGlynn, Bassi, Kowalczyk; Ponce

CF Montreal possible starting lineup:

Sirois; Alvarez, Campbell, Neal, Petrasso; Pearce, Piette, Loturi; Sealy, Owusu, Clark

We say: Houston Dynamo 2-0 CF MontrealThe Dynamo are not all that lethal in the attacking third, but have more than enough quality to get through a backline as shaky as Montreal’s, while the latter will be hampered minus some key pieces through suspension.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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Data AnalysisOur analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 62.54%. A draw has a probability of 20.4% and a win for CF Montreal has a probability of 17.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.53%), while for a CF Montreal win it is 1-2 (4.73%).

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