How the sting of climate change is hurting food commodity prices

When it comes to agricultural commodities, much focus is on how they impact climate change. The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)​, which comes into force in December, is an attempt to mitigate agriculture’s impact on the climate.

However, the opposite perspective is also a concern: a changing climate is affecting yields of key commodities, from cocoa to coffee and sugar beet.

At FoodNavigator’s market-leading Climate Smart Food summit this week​, experts detailed how changing, unpredictable weather is damaging yields, creating uncertainty for industry and precariousness for smallholder farmers.

How is climate change impacting cocoa?​The impact of climate change on cocoa has been felt for years, said Katie Sims, head of the five sourcing principles team at Tony’s Open Chain, Tony’s Chocolonely. Recent soaring commodity prices​ have been driven by conditions becoming even worse, due to an acute drought caused by El Niño.

The effects of climate change is exacerbated by other problems, said Bastien Sachet, CEO of the organisation Earthworm Foundation. The disease swollen shoot has, according to some studies, affected roughly a third of trees in key cocoa producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire. “This will, independently of climate change, affect the production,” he said.

The affects of climate change, suggested Tony’s Open Chain’s Sims, is part of a large scale structural decline in cocoa production. “We see underinvestment consistently in cocoa leading to lower yields, aging plantations and generally a very poor business model for smallholders,” she said.

How is climate change impacting sugar beet?​Sugar beet, like cocoa, is impacted significantly by the affects of climate change. “The variability in weather events is increasing,” said Geert van Aelst, head of sustainability at Südzucker.

There are more indirect impacts of the climate as well, he suggested, such as the increase of crop pests and diseases. Crop pests are “coming more and sudden, popping up very quickly and spreading very quickly.” According to van Aelst, this is largely due to the impact of the changing climate.

Sugar beet is grown in Europe, but this does not mean it’s immune to a heating world. Image Source: Getty Images/MatauwMineralisation is also an issue, according to the Earthworm Foundation’s Sachet. Mineralisation, the process by which organic matter is transformed into minerals and nutrients, is accelerated by heat. In Europe, where sugar beet is grown, this process is traditionally slow, but now increasing heat is speeding it up. 

How is climate change impacting coffee?​Coffee, like sugar beet and cocoa, is impacted by the unpredictability of climatic conditions. It is “sometimes warmer than usual; sometimes colder than usual; sometimes it is a question of the range of variation of temperatures within a month or a day or a week, or also in terms of irregular rainfall patterns,” said Marcelo Burity, head of green coffee development at Nestlé.

Much like sugar beet, the impact of higher temperatures can make crop disease more prevalent. In Colombia and central America, Burity told us, he has seen leaf rust making it into areas it hadn’t been seen before, and diminishing yields, due to higher than usual temperatures in the region.

“That extra half a degree, that extra degree of temperature at that altitude created the conditions for leaf rust […] to climb up the mountain. Coffee varieties that were performing quite well in those areas, but did not have resistance to this particular disease, started getting affected, losing leaves. [We had a] short, sharp drop in production.”

“We had a short, sharp drop in production”

An overabundance of rainfall can also affect soil fertility. “If you have too much rain, then it can cause topsoil erosion that can have an impact on soil fertility.”

High temperatures, when the soil is exposed, can also have detrimental affects on the soil fauna and the microlife in the soil, said Burity, both of which are key to bringing soil fertility into place. Without measures such as composting or mulching, this soil could lose the ability to support trees or vegetation.

Temperatures creeping up have made some coffee varieties more vulnerable to disease. Image Source: Getty Images/Frazao Studio LatinoHow can these affects be mitigated?​In order to prevent such difficulties, one needs to understand the farmer’s perspective, Südzucker’s van Aelst pointed out. Farmers need to be able to be trained in the right techniques, rather than simply introduced to them, if full implementation is going to be possible.

Paying attention to the farm type, emphasised Nestlé’s Burity, is vital. A one-size-fits-all approach will not do – one must pay attention to the farm size, its crops, its climate and many other factors. Solutions must be tailored.

While halting and reversing the march of climate change would be optimal, in the meantime there are some agricultural methods that farmers and producers can use to mitigate the worst affects of unpredictable weather patterns on their crops.

Several tried and tested techniques are already being promoted. For the Earthworm Foundation’s Sachet, soil health is central. Covering soils and regenerating soils will allow them to both absorb and contain water, enabling them to adapt to both wet and dry weather.

Cocoa farmers must pool their resources to deal with climate shocks, Sims suggested. Image Source: Getty Images/3000RISK“I think we have quite some potential to recover soil functionality, and to adapt to climate change this way.”

Furthermore, Sachet suggested, cultivating diversity in crops is important. Monocrops are more easily wiped out by challenges such as crop pests, whereas crop diversity creates stronger food security.

Cover cropping, emphasised Burity, is vital, protecting the soil from the elements and preserving soil health.

On the ground, collaboration between farmers is vital. According to Sims, recovering from the climate shocks that cocoa has experienced recently is very difficult for farmers.

“In a West African context it is simply not possible to make the recovery that is necessary from such an acute climate shock of this last season without hiring professional labour, so a shortage of labour in the region is another reason why this recovery from climate shock is going to take longer for smallholder famers in West Africa.”

Collaboration – the pooling of knowledge and resources – in the form of cooperatives​ is thus key to survival for many farmers in a West African context.