Ideal Strategy for Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Drafts Entering 2024 NFL Season

Gary Davenport@@IDPSharksFeatured Columnist IVAugust 25, 2024Ideal Strategy for Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Drafts Entering 2024 NFL Season0 of 10

Breece HallCooper Neill/Getty Images

With the beginning of the 2024 NFL season right around the corner, fantasy draft season is in overdrive. Hundreds (if not thousands) of drafts are taking place every day, as managers build their teams for the upcoming season.

However, for some fantasy fanatics building a new team every year just isn’t good enough. They want to go full Howie Roseman. Try their hand at not only building a team but maintaining it from one season to the next.

Those managers play in dynasty leagues, where there’s one startup draft and then teams retain their players from year to year while adding incoming rookie classes in an annual rookie draft.

Dynasties add a new level of strategy to fantasy football—the dilemma of balancing success in the present and the potential to win in the long-term. There are also exponentially more trades in dynasty leagues than in most redrafts. It can seem daunting to some. But much like superflex or IDP or any of the other fantasy variants, it’s really not that complicated. With a few handy tips, you can build a team that can not only compete in 2024 but for years to come.

With that in mind, here are five things to do (and five more not to) to have an ideal dynasty startup draft.

Do: Draft for the Future1 of 10

Amon-Ra St. BrownKevin Sabitus/Getty Images

It should go without saying that the draft strategy in dynasty fantasy football leagues is vastly different than in redraft formats. There’s less margin for error. If you blow a draft in a redraft league, then worst-case you have to endure a few months of struggles, the season ends, and your team gets the Etch-a-Sketch treatment.

But botch a dynasty draft, and you can be saddled with a
tomato can for years.

For many dynasty managers, youth is the name of the game on draft day. And there’s sound logic behind that. You want to draft players whose careers are still ascending, not select a roster full of guys who are closer to the end of the road than the beginning.

At quarterback, shoot for players who are just entering
their prime—preferably ones who just received that massive second contract. If
they are making $50-plus million per season, they are likely both good at their
jobs and most assuredly not going anywhere any time soon.

At running back, try to target players who are 26 or younger
where possible. Given the pounding those players take and their shorter career
arcs, drafting aging backs can leave managers with holes in the backfield in
short order.

At tight end and wide receiver, managers have a bit more
leeway—players at those spots are often effective into their early 30s.
However, just as at quarterback, if you can lock down a young star in the early
stages of a big contract like Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions, you can
solidify that spot for several seasons.

Don’t: Sacrifice the Present for the Future2 of 10

Davante AdamsAndy Lyons/Getty Images

This is an easy pitfall for dynasty managers to fall into in startups. They envision a dynasty that will last longer than the Galactic Empire. That ominous Darth Vader music starts resonating through their heads. And they tell themselves that youth will be served—and then some. That they won’t draft a single player who is older than 26. That even if it means struggling a bit in 2024, they will focus their efforts on being dominant in 2026 and 2027.

And as often as not, it backfires.

The reality is that a lot can change in the NFL from one
season to the next. Players who appear to be surefire stars in the making fail
to meet expectations. Players get hurt. Players get traded and wind up in
vastly different circumstances.

The last this writer checked, the point of fantasy football is to win—in every format. If you get into a startup draft where every manager is focused three years down the road, veteran players are going to fall into positions of value. Sure, if you draft Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams, you are probably only going to get 2-3 good seasons out of him. But if you get Adams four rounds later than you should have, you’re also getting a bargain.

And value wins championships in dynasties just as it does in
redrafts.

Just like so many things in life, balance is key. Filling an
entire roster with veterans may not be advisable, but sprinkling a few in can
give you a team that not only has a solid foundation for the future but can
also kick some tail in the present.

Winning the championship in Year 1 of a dynasty counts the
same as winning it in Year 4. And we have a much better idea what the NFL
landscape looks like in 2024 than what it might look like in 2027.

Do: Draft at Least One Young High-End Running Back3 of 10

Bijan RobinsonJustin Casterline/Getty Images

Running back is far and away the most volatile position in
fantasy football. Players at the position take a pounding. They get injured. There
are some backs who carve out decade-plus careers in the NFL, but statistically
speaking most backs begin to decline at the ripe old age of about 28.

Given that, going “Zero RB” in a dynasty startup is a strategy that toes the line between bravery and lunacy. The smarter play is to at the very least select one young high-end back to anchor the backfield. One running back you are confident will lock down a starting spot for multiple years to come.

You need a hero.

The ideal example of this in 2024 is Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson was a top-10 pick at a position where players are rarely drafted in the first round at all, so talent isn’t a question. Robinson posted top-10 fantasy numbers in PPR formats last year despite Arthur Smith’s attempt to make fantasy managers walk into traffic by giving Tyler Allgeier over 200 touches. Odds are he’ll be in Atlanta for at least four more years. He has everything fantasy managers should look for at running back.

Breece Hall of the New York Jets. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions. De’Von Achane of the Miami Dolphins. To a lesser extent Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks. All have the combination of youth and talent that dynasty managers should look for in a RB1.

Get one spot in the backfield locked down—or both, if you
wanna rock your startup draft old-school style.

Don’t: Be Afraid to Flesh out the Backfield with Veterans4 of 10

Najee HarrisRandy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

OK, so your RB1 slot has been addressed. You have a
foundational player at the position who will hopefully hold down a starting
spot for several years.

That opens up options for your second starter—including going
with a platoon situation or targeting aging backs later on as short-term
options at RB2.

The cold, hard truth is that you are going to have more turnover at running back in dynasty leagues than at any other spot. It’s just the nature of the position. Two years ago, Austin Ekeler of the Washington Commanders was considered a top-five fantasy running back. Now he’s half an afterthought sharing carries in the nation’s capital with Brian Robinson Jr.

Don’t be afraid to live in the now and draft backs for whom the future is somewhat murky. The high-end of these players are guys like Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles and Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers. Neither back is especially old, and both just signed big contracts. But both also have quite a bit of wear and tear on the proverbial tires.

Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers is only 26, but he has taken a pounding and may be switching teams in 2025. Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens could be a monster in 2024, but he’s the wrong side of 30. Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans may not have much fantasy value come 2026, but he’s a solid second starter right now.

Backs with long-term question marks often make dynasty
drafters nervous—and that opens up the opportunity to get those players in a
position of value.

Do: Draft a Higher-End Quarterback5 of 10

C.J. StroudTim Warner/Getty Images

There isn’t a position in fantasy football where my redraft and dynasty strategies differ more than at quarterback.

In redrafts, the value lies in the bottom half of the
top-12. It makes more sense to target Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals
than Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, because you can get similar
fantasy upside rounds later.

Murray’s not a bad target in dynasties, either. But a compelling argument can be made that elite quarterbacks are more worthy of an early pick in that format. The reasons are twofold.

The first is consistency. The reason those quarterbacks are elite in the first place is that most haven’t just shown they can post big numbers. They have shown they can do it season after season. If you pay up for Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs or Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, you know what you’re going to get for the foreseeable future.

That’s the second reason for drafting an elite quarterback—longevity. Mahomes and Allen are still just 28 years old. They have at least 5-7 more seasons before age becomes any kind of real concern. C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans doesn’t have the track record of some of the other top-end signal-callers, but if last year was any indication unless Stroud’s right arm falls off, he’s going to be posting big passing numbers for a decade-plus.

This is of course doubly true in dynasty superflex leagues. In that format, quarterbacks are worth their weight in gold. The early rounds will be dominated by the position. And if you don’t have three (That’s right. Three. And in a 12-team league—well, you do the math) viable quarterbacks your team could be in deep trouble—trouble it may take years to fix.

Don’t: Punt on a Solid Backup Quarterback6 of 10

Brock PurdyChris Unger/Getty Images

Now, in a redraft fantasy league, if you spend on an elite starter under center, odds are you are going to wait a while before worrying about a backup who will hopefully make just one start that season. In fact, if I have a top-five fantasy quarterback, I may not even draft a backup—it’s a bridge to be crossed when Lamar Jackson’s bye week gets here.

It’s a different story in dynasties. Every semi-viable starting quarterback is going to be drafted. The waiver wire is going to look like a $3 towel table at Walmart an hour after the doors are opened on Black Friday.

High-end quarterback or no, you need a solid Plan B at the
position.

Drafting a higher-end QB2 isn’t inexpensive. But if you pair the aforementioned Lamar Jackson with Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins or Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, you don’t just have a solid option to roll out on Jackson’s bye week. You have a long-term insurance policy against injury. And a potentially valuable trade chip if another team that wasn’t as prudent under center suffers an injury of their own.

It’s not all that unusual for this analyst to roster three
quarterbacks in dynasties—even ones with just one weekly starter. Circling back
later for a Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams or Aaron Rodgers of the
New York Jets affords an insurance policy against your insurance policy—and makes
flipping a signal-caller for picks all the more palatable.

Quarterback isn’t the most important position in dynasty leagues. But their value is significantly higher than in redrafts.

Do: Blast Away at Wide Receiver7 of 10

Garrett WilsonNick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

In recent years, wide receiver has supplanted running back (in the eyes of most) as the most important position in fantasy football. Partly, it’s a result of pass-heavy NFL offenses. Of three (at least) weekly starters at the position. Of PPR scoring making wideouts higher scorers overall (as a whole) than their counterparts in the backfield. And partly, it’s a perception that wideouts are “safer” picks with a lower bust rate than running backs.

That’s more true in the middle rounds (The “RB Dead Zone) than early on, but in dynasties it can’t really be argued that wide receivers are more valuable—for all the reasons listed above and one more important one—longevity.

Whereas many running backs (even wildly talented ones) may only enjoy 4-5 years of fantasy relevance before wear and tear starts chipping away at their value, it’s not that unusual for elite wide receivers to play at a high level for a decade or more. Look at the careers of players like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs of the Houston Texans or Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins.

I am in a long-time dynasty where a decade ago I drafted a
lanky wide receiver out of Texas A&M named Mike Evans. To say I have been
pleased by that pick is an understatement.

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys. Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets. Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals. Players like Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders and Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks later on.

Having one top-end wideout is a must, and you cannot have
too many quality young receivers.

We used to say that about running backs.

Don’t: Completely Fade the 10 Percent off at IHOP Set at WR8 of 10

Cooper KuppRyan Kang/Getty Images

For those who are wondering, the “10 Percent off at IHOP Set” means wide receivers who are relatively old.

Someone always asks.

With every dynasty manager worth his salt hoarding young
wide receivers like my colleague Brent Sobleski hoards comic books (Needless
shot at co-worker box is checked), aging wideouts often drop in dynasty
startups.

Don’t be afraid to grab one or two.

Full disclosure—this analyst doesn’t approach dynasty startups that much differently than redrafts. I’m not worried about winning in 2027. I want to win now. Always. And if I can get a proven high-end wideout like Mike Evans or Davante Adams (if I write his name two more times, I get free Taco Bell) at a discount, I’m going to do it.

All Evans has done is top 1,000 receiving yards 10 years in
a row. Despite a slow second half in 2023, Stefon Diggs has 100 receptions and
over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. Adams was targeted more than
any receiver in the AFC last year. Not that long ago, Cooper Kupp of the Los
Angeles Rams blew the doors off every other receiver in fantasy football.

This isn’t to say you should build an all-over-30 wideout corps—that’s going to leave you looking at a rebuild at the position in fairly short order. But don’t pass on a proven pass-catcher who’s a value at cost just because his birthday cake has more candles on it.

Wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy. Filling a hole here and there in the rookie draft ain’t hard.

Do: Invest in a Reliable Tight End9 of 10

Sam LaPortaCooper Neill/Getty Images

The good news at tight end is that the past few years have added some excellent young players to the talent pool, whether it was Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions and Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills in 2023 or Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders this year.

The bad news is that tight end is still far and away the shallowest position in fantasy football. There are maybe 7-8 players at the position I have any real confidence in as a reliable weekly starter in 2024—and two of those (George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers and the great Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chefs (That reminds me, I want a Snickers)) are the wrong side of 30.

That puts something of a premium on locking down one of those reliable weekly starters. Do so, and your team will have a decided edge on managers trying to convince themselves that David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns can back up last year’s numbers or that Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers is ever going to be more than a marginal starter.

Granted, it won’t be cheap—LaPorta’s ADP at Fantasy Pros is in the middle of Round 2, and Kincaid and Trey McBride are gone by the end of Round 4. But managers can get Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons in Round 5 or Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars (A personal favorite who led all tight ends in targets last year and should have at least 2-3 good years left in him) in Round 8.

Pick a price point you can live with—and invest in a tight end you can start each week without having to down half a bottle of Schnapps to feel OK about it.

Don’t: Overvalue Rookie Draft Picks10 of 10

Marvin Harrison Jr.Justin Casterline/Getty Images

This final bit of advice may not apply equally to all dynasty startups. Some have separate rookie drafts—often with the inverse draft order of the veteran draft. Others lump everyone together.

It’s also comes with another confession. When I’m home alone and no one else is around I like to…

Never mind.

Joking aside, I will freely admit to being the dynasty manager who trades away rookie picks with regularity for veteran talent. And for every person like me, there’s another that clings to those rookie picks like grim death.

But sometimes, managers become too enamored with those picks. Get so caught up in getting better in the future that they squander an opportunity to compete for a championship now.

This isn’t to say that I would just give away this year’s 1.01 rookie pick—in one-QB dynasties, that pick is almost always Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Cardinals, who from all indications is a can’t-miss superstar in the making at wide receiver.

But you would be surprised what second or even third-round picks can net in the way of veteran players from dynasty managers obsessed with long-term success. And if you’re 7-1 and suffer a major injury, dealing a late first-rounder for an aging veteran who can help keep your team chugging along this year is a deal absolutely worth making.

The point of dynasty leagues isn’t to build the best hypothetical might-be great team for 2027. It’s to win a championship. Hopefully more than one.

And there’s no better time to start than the present.

Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.