Ivan Toney begins a four-month shoot-out to be Harry Kane’s understudy

This weekend marks Ivan Toney’s long-awaited return to first-team action after his eight-month ban for breaching FA betting regulations ended on January 17. The Brentford striker has motivations aplenty, perhaps none greater than firing his way into the England squad for Euro 2024.

Many arguments could be made on the validity of the ban, the length of it and how the FA and Premier League handle such situations, but that’s a discussion for another day and Toney will surely now want to put it in the rear-view mirror and focus on regaining his match fitness and the form that made him one of the league’s deadliest strikers.

The Bees come into Saturday’s evening kick-off against Nottingham Forest off the back of five consecutive league losses that have left them in 16th place and just three points clear of the relegation zone, albeit with fewer games played than the sides around them.

Midweek also saw Brentford knocked out of the FA Cup by Wolves, and their recent downturn has not been helped at all by the absences of Bryan Mbuemo (out for three months with an ankle injury) and Yoane Wissa (at the Africa Cup of Nations with DR Congo).

There’s other factors at play like Toney getting his livelihood back and possibly a move to a so-called big club in the summer, but any move in this window seems highly unlikely given the FFP constraints faced by potential suitors and Brentford’s £100m price tag.

The striker mentioned both in his Sky Sports interview on the day his ban ended, likening his time away from the pitch to being in “prison” and stating that it’s obvious that he’d like to “play for a top club fighting for titles”.

That move is almost certain to come if he gets close to his form of the last two seasons, and even more so if he makes it into Gareth Southgate’s 23-man squad for the Euros.

Toney missed out on the 2022 World Cup solely due to ‘footballing reasons’ according to FA Chief Executive Mark Bullingham but the striker, as well as anyone with any common sense, believes it was due to the furore surrounding his betting charges.

The charges were coincidentally made public right before the squad announcement despite no ban being put in place until May of last year. It didn’t add up according to Toney, who said in an interview last summer: “I’m banned now but the biggest punishment for me was missing out on playing at the World Cup. I felt more hurt and down around that time.

“I felt like somebody was out to get me at that time to stop me from playing for England.”

The decision felt all the stranger given the Brentford man then made his international debut three months after the Qatar tournament, despite his impending ban. He clearly responds well to setbacks.

That sense of injustice likely still lingers, as does a desire to prove all his doubters wrong and both should only serve as added fuel for his mission to find a way into the squad.

Despite missing so much football, it is a very real possibility with the field wide open for the role of Harry Kane’s understudy (let’s be realistic) at the summer extravaganza in Germany.

Ollie Watkins has stepped up in his absence, which is a reversal of their club careers – Toney joined Brentford upon the 28-year-old’s exit for Villa in the 2020 summer transfer window.

The Villa striker made the most of a rare opportunity for anyone not named Kane to start an England game, scoring the sole goal in October’s 1-0 victory over Australia at Wembley.

He is currently the favourite to board the plane, but he is by no means a guaranteed choice. Any dip in output coinciding with Toney approaching anywhere close to the form that made him the Premier League’s top scorer outside of Kane and Erling Haaland last season could lead to serious questions for Southgate.

Even reasonable form should see him be ahead of Callum Wilson (who went to Qatar over him but is injury-prone) and Dominic Solanke (over six years after his only England cap) in the pecking order.

What also should really be a major advantage for Toney is his incredible penalty record; he has only missed one of 24 for Brentford and appears to have an ice-cold mentality from 12 yards, which is not something usually said about English players.

Spot-kicks have historically been England’s kryptonite even under Southgate, despite ending the World Cup hoodoo against Colombia in 2018. The Three Lions have lost a Euros final in a shootout and Harry Kane, usually so reliable, blasted over against France at the World Cup.

That gives Toney an advantage, but the truth is that he is now in a four-month shoot-out for a place on the plane to Germany. Goals scored by English strikers in November will mean nothing compared to those scored in March and April.

His road to recovery, redemption and maybe even Germany starts at the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday night. Could there be a happy ending to his story this summer? You wouldn’t bet against it.