Kentucky Derby 2024 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders

Kentucky Derby 2024 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders0 of 4

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Kentucky Derby day has arrived, as the 20 horses in the 2024 field will be taking their posts at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. It’s a milestone year for the illustrious event, too, as this will be the 150th running of the race.

With the Derby nearly here, Triple Crown season is about to begin. It’s the first of three prestigious races and will be soon followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

Fierceness (5-2) is the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. But there are plenty of other strong horses in the field, including Sierra Leone (3-1), Catching Freedom (8-1) and many others.

Here’s a look at the full 2024 Derby field, followed by predictions for the top three finishers.

Odds, Post Positions1 of 4

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1. Dornoch (20-1)

2. Sierra Leone (3-1)

3. Mystik Dan (20-1)

4. Catching Freedom (8-1)

5. Catalytic (30-1)

6. Just Steel (20-1)

7. Honor Marie (20-1)

8. Just A Touch (10-1)

9. (Originally belonged to Encino, who was scratched)

10. T O Password (30-1)

11. Forever Young (10-1)

12. Track Phantom (20-1)

13. West Saratoga (50-1)

14. Endlessly (30-1)

15. Domestic Product (30-1)

16. Grand Mo the First (50-1)

17. Fierceness (5-2)

18. Stronghold (20-1)

19. Resilience (20-1)

20. Society Man (50-1)

21. Epic Man (50-1)

Win: Catching Freedom (8-1)2 of 4

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While any of the top contenders could emerge victorious, the prediction here is that Catching Freedom will cross the finish line first on Saturday evening.

A Brad Cox-trained colt, Catching Freedom has had a lot of success early in his racing career. He’s won three of his five events, which includes a victory at his last race, the Louisiana Derby in March. In his two non-wins, he finished third and fourth.

Cox is a former Kentucky Derby winner (2021 with Mandaloun) and so is Catching Freedom’s jockey, Flavien Prat, who rode Country House to victory in 2019. That experience could help get Catching Freedom to the winner’s circle.

This should be a competitive Kentucky Derby. But Catching Freedom will pull away down the final stretch and run to victory.

Place: Sierra Leone (3-1)3 of 4

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It seems highly likely that Sierra Leone will have a strong showing on Saturday. After all, the Chad Brown-trained colt has had success in each of his first four career races.

Sierra Leone owns three wins and one second-place finish (which came at the Remsen Stakes in December). He’s been victorious in each of his past two races, which were the Risen Star Stakes in February and the Blue Grass Stakes in April.

Brown has entered plenty of strong horses into the Kentucky Derby before, but he’s never came away with a win. There is a chance he finally breaks through with Sierra Leone.

However, it’s also possible Sierra Leone comes up just short. Expect that to be the case, although he’ll still notch a second-place showing.

Show: Honor Marie (20-1)4 of 4

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If you’re looking for a horse with longer odds who could end up finishing in the money, consider wagering on Honor Marie. His 20-1 line to win makes him a bit of a sleeper horse for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

There’s a great storyline with Honor Marie, whose trainer is D. Whitworth Beckman, a Louisville native entering a horse into the Derby for the first time. So it would be quite a day for Beckman if his debut in the race results in a top finish for his colt.

Honor Marie has finished first or second in four of his five career races. He was the runner-up at the Louisiana Derby in March, placing behind only Catching Freedom.

At the Kentucky Derby, Honor Marie will again cross the finish line after Catching Freedom (and Sierra Leone as well). But it’s certainly possible that Beckman’s horse ends up in the money.