Lakers odds to make playoffs: Play-in game tiebreakers, Western Conference standings and remaining schedule

Included in breaking down Lakers’ playoff chances:

Remaining schedule
Current Play-In Tournament tiebreakers
Western Conference standings
Lakers playoffs projection
By now, sports fans have become conditioned to never count out LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers. No matter how underwhelming their regular-season campaign, this duo always seems to lead L.A. back to competitiveness when it matters. 

But no trend lasts forever, and the Western Conference has been as loaded as ever this season. Could Bron’s age-39 season be the year to finally fade him in the “make playoffs” futures market? 

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It’s not an easy “yes” or “no” question — hence L.A.’s -115 on BetMGM to make the playoffs and -105 to miss them. Plenty of factors merit consideration, including the Lakers’ remaining schedule, the current Western Conference standings, the NBA Play-In Tournament tiebreakers, and injuries.

Let’s weigh out all variables, and assess the Lakers’ BetMGM odds to make or miss the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Lakers’ odds to make playoffs: Remaining schedule

The Lakers have made the playoffs as a seven-seed via the NBA Play-In Tournament in two of the past three postseasons.

In 2021, they defeated the Warriors then fizzed out in the first round against the Suns.

Last year they beat the Wolves in the 7-8 Play-In Game, then proceeded to make it all the way to the Western Conference Finals before bowing out to the eventual-champion Nuggets. 

Can L.A. get to the playoffs via the Play-In for the third time in four years, and mount two improbable postseason runs in a row? As we already said, anything’s possible with King James. The Lakers already sit in the nine-seed with only a few games remaining in the regular season. 

Let’s analyze L.A.’s remaining schedule in the 2023-24 season.

Date
Matchup
Opp. 

Record
April 9
vs. Warriors
43-35
April 12
@ Grizzlies
27-51
April 14
@ Pelicans
46-32
If you’re Bron, AD, and Ham, there’s a lot to like there. Los Angeles closes the season out with a game against the Warriors at home (where L.A. has gone 28-13), a date with a banged-up, 27-win Grizzlies squad, and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram (knee). 

The Lakers have taken down the Warriors in eight of their past 12 meetings dating back to Feb. 2023. It’s reasonable to project Bron, AD, and company to win two of these three remaining games.

That would make the Lakers’ final record for the 2023-24 regular season 47-35, which could be enough to creep L.A. into the eighth seed. Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter are both expected to miss the rest of the regular season for the Kings, who have one of the tougher rest-of-season schedules.

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Lakers’ odds to make playoffs: Play-In Tiebreakers

Of course, things get tight toward the end of the season when conferences have as much parity as the West has right now. It’s important for us to know the NBA’s tiebreaker rules before we fire off any futures bets on the Lakers to make the playoffs. 

Here’s the order of the NBA’s official tiebreaker rules, and how they could affect L.A.:

Head-to-head record; better record in games with the tied teams
Division record; better record in games against teams in its own division (only if the teams are in the same division)
Conference record; better record in games against teams in its own conference
Winning percentage against playoff teams in its own conference
Winning percentage against playoff teams in the opposing conference
Point differential in all games
The Lakers have gone 3-2 against the Suns and 2-2 against the Kings this season, so they would immediately own the tie over Phoenix but would need to go to tiebreaker No. 2 against Sacramento.

L.A. has gone just 7-9 in divisional games, whereas the Kings have gone 10-6 against Pacific foes. Thus, the Lakers must finish with a better record than Sac-town to have a higher seed in the Play-In. 

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Lakers’ odds to make playoffs: Western Conference standings

At 44-33, the Lakers have the ninth-best record in the Western Conference. They currently lead the Warriors in 10th place by two games and trail the Suns in eighth place by one game.

You can find the full Western Conference playoff picture below.

Records as of April 4

Rank
Team
Record
GB
1
Timberwolves
54-24
—
2
Nuggets
54-24
—
3
Thunder
53-25
1.0
4
Clippers
50-28
4.0
5
Mavericks
48-30
6.0
6
Suns
46-32
8.0
7
Pelicans
46-32
8.0
8
Kings
45-33
9.0
9
Lakers
45-34
9.5
10
Warriors
43-35
11.0
—
Rockets
38-40
16.0
The Lakers’ path out of the NBA Play-In Tournament and into the sixth seed seems extremely unlikely. The West is collectively on fire, and the Mavs and Suns have been two of the hottest teams of late. The only way in for L.A., it seems, is via the Play-In for the third time in four seasons. 

Lakers’ odds to make playoffs: Projection and best bet

With Los Angeles relatively healthy, we like the Lakers’ chances of winning their way into the playoffs for the third time since 2021.

Sportsbooks know that LeBron, AD, and company tend to win the close matchups when the pressure is highest. Remember the In-Season Tournament, ya’ll? Or the first two rounds of the Western Conference Playoffs last season?

Again, bet against King James and his court of jesters at your own risk. We’re taking the solid value with the Lakers -115 to make the playoffs, and we plan to join LeBron, AD, and company on the right side of history once again. The next few weeks should be a fun ride.

Best bet: Lakers (-115) to make the playoffs. We like Los Angeles to finish the regular season as the eight-seed, then win its way in via the Lakers’ first and only Play-In game.