Mailbag: What’s the best outcome for PFL and an early look at UFC 310

We don’t have to tell lies, it was an underwhelming week of MMA as UFC Vegas 98 was not exactly a banner event. Nevertheless, the main event between Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira delivered, and we got some pretty big news about UFC 310. On top of that, we’re now on the road to PFL: Ngannou vs. Ferreira a.k.a “Battle of the Giants” in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

So, with a smattering of topics to discuss this week, let’s touch on them all.

Tatsuro Taira

How do you think a fight between Taira and Mokaev would have played out?

— Dylan Barth (@dylaneb11) October 13, 2024

“How do you think a fight between Taira and Mokaev would have played out?”

If you missed it, Brandon Royval took a hard-fought decision over Tatsuro Taira in the main event of UFC Vegas 98 this past Saturday. The fight was one of the best of the year but now that Taira has suffered his first career loss, there’s already been some questioning of how good he is. But that’s a bit crazy.

Taira is only 24 years old and he just went hammer and tongs with the No. 1-ranked guy in the world. In just about any other scenario, people would be praising the pants off him. But because he was a sizable betting favorite heading into the fight, instead there are now questions about how good he is. That’s a bit silly. Is he as good as Brandon Royval? Not quite. But basically no one else is either.

That’s not to say that Taira’s performance was above reproach. He certainly showed a number of enormous holes. Royval pieced Taira up on the feet and the Japanese fighter also maybe showed a lack of cardio for five round fights. But those are things we’d expect from a young fighter who has basically never had to develop a B game. I fully expect this to be one of those losses that is hugely beneficial for Taira.

Now on to the question: I think Taira beats Mokaev but I’m in no way certain of that. That is a matchup of two very similar fighters. Both are exceptional grapplers, Mokaev is the better wrestler but Taira is the more dangerous finisher with a few more tricks. Ultimately, I think it comes down to the striking and while Taira is not very good on the feet, he’s shown more than Mokaev has at this point so I’ll favor him.

PFL’s big night

I think we can all agree in saying Ngannou vs Ferreira doesn’t go the distance, but what’s the most preferrable outcome for the PFL? Is it Ngannou knocking out Ferreira or would it be their homegrown guy knocking out the lineal UFC champion, who never lost his belt in the cage?

— Bryan Muwanguzi (@BryanMuwanguzi) October 13, 2024

“I think we can all agree in saying Ngannou vs Ferreira doesn’t go the distance, but what’s the most preferable outcome for the PFL? Is it Ngannou knocking out Ferreira or would it be their homegrown guy knocking out the lineal UFC champion, who never lost his belt in the cage?”

Francis Ngannou takes on Renan Ferreira in the main event of PFL’s latest PPV offering this Saturday and I think it’s safe to say this is the most important event of PFL’s existence.

Almost two years ago the PFL backed up the Brinks truck for Ngannou and now he is finally going to compete for them. Is that going to matter? Are people going to tune in because Francis Ngannou is fighting, because that was basically the calculus when PFL signed him: that Ngannou brings both cache and eyeballs. A year ago when Ngannou arguably should have beaten Tyson Fury, that might have been true. Now that Anthony Joshua put him on a stretcher? Unsure.

Aside from needing Ngannou to be a star, the PFL also really needs him to win. I’m not sure if Ngannou is a PPV draw in general, but I am certain he’s not the kind of star that can springboard others to stardom off of beating him. If Ferreira comes out and sleeps Ngannou, the only thing that happens is that the MMA world collectively says, “Well, Francis was gone for almost three years and just got savagely KOed. Guess Tom Aspinall really is the top guy right now.” Sure, Renan Ferreira would be the lineal champion, but that will be all but meaningless at that point in time. No one will care.

So yeah, the PFL needs Francis to come through and uppercut Ferreira out of the cage, remind people why they were so excited to get him in the first place and, hopefully, generate enough interest to have a successful PPV outing.

Big pressure on Big Francis this weekend.

Cris Cyborg and Larissa Pacheco

What does the future hold for cyborg and Pacheco after this weekend? Kayla will have no real threats for a long time once she takes the belt from Pena.

— Daniel Pompilio (@elpompilio) October 13, 2024

“What does the future hold for cyborg and Pacheco after this weekend? Kayla will have no real threats for a long time once she takes the belt from Pena.”

Genuinely I have no idea. Pacheco vs. Cyborg is a quality fight that has two enormous issues with it. First is that Cyborg is ancient in fight years. Cyborg has had a wonderful career but frankly the only reason it’s continued this long is because women’s featherweight isn’t a real division, so she’s feasted on overmatched and/or underweight opposition. Pacheco is the first woman Cyborg will have fought since Julia Budd who is actually capable and physically comparable. She’s probably going to get her ass kicked.

Which is all well and good for Pacheco, who is a great fighter, but that leads to problem two: there is nothing else for Pacheco to do after this. I’m honestly a bit surprised that Cyborg didn’t just retire from MMA instead of take this fight but it’s great for Pacheco she didn’t. At least Pacheco gets this one fight for the resume, but after this Pacheco then just moves into the same place Cyborg spent most of her career: having no one to fight.

My best guess is that if/when Pacheco wins, they just run back another tournament next year and she competes in it because she makes a bundle of money and it’s not like the promotion has real “superfights” to offer her. And as for Cyborg, I suspect this is it for her MMA career and she can move back on to pursuing boxing.

Now that they announced shavkat vs belal I can think of several exciting matchups at the top of the 170 lb division. Is this the best the division has looked in the last decade? Can you rate the divisions by talent?

— Daniel Pompilio (@elpompilio) October 13, 2024

“Now that they announced Shavkat vs. Belal I can think of several exciting matchups at the top of the 170 lb division. Is this the best the division has looked in the last decade? Can you rate the divisions by talent?”

If you missed it, the big fights for UFC 310 got announced this week and the event will be headlined by a welterweight title fight between Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Reason won out and it’s going to rule. Either Belal pulls off the upset and truly proves himself to be one of the best fighters in the world right now, or Shavkat finally receives his crown and welterweight has a no-doubt-about-it exciting champion for the first time since Robbie Lawler. Win-win.

As for the state of the welterweight division, maybe? It’s true that for the past couple of years the welterweight division has fallen off some, particularly in comparison with weight classes like 155 of 135; and now we do have this crop of new names coming through and making things interesting, which is exciting, but a decade is a long time.

The golden age of welterweight (thus far) was probably Georges St-Pierre’s initial years as champion when the entire top-10 were some of the best fighters alive. But if you look back to 2016, that’s a pretty good crop of fighters as well. Tyron Woodley is champion, Stephen Thompson is at the peak of his powers, Demian Maia is still hanging around, Usman and Colby Covington are on the come-up, along with Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns. It’s only the past few years where things have felt stagnant because the old guard keeps hanging around. So no, I don’t think it’s the best of the past decade but it’s trending in an excellent direction.

And for rankings:

Lightweight
Bantamweight
Featherweight
Flyweight
Middleweight
Welterweight
Womens’ Flyweight
Women’s Strawweight

Light Heavyweight
Heavyweight
Women’s bantamweight

And truly the bottom three are interchangeably terrible.

Nick Diaz returns

What should we expect out of Nick Diaz? Another sad performance? Or do you think he’s going to take this one serious?

— Shankapotomus (@gottheshanks) October 13, 2024

“What should we expect out of Nick Diaz? Another sad performance? Or do you think he’s going to take this one serious?”

Also lined up for UFC 310 is the return of Nick Diaz, who will take on Vicente Luque. It’s a fight that was originally scheduled for UFC Abu Dhabi this year until “travel issues” popped up for Diaz (a.k.a. somebody finally remembered the very strict rules the UAE has surrounding marijuana). And I gotta tell you, it’s going to be terrible.

The issue is not “whether Nick takes this fight seriously,” it’s that Nick Diaz doesn’t have it anymore. To paraphrase the poet and scholar Cutty Wise, the game ain’t in him no more.

Nick is 41 years old. That alone is nearly disqualifying. On top of that, he’s only fought twice this decade: once in a farce of a bout with Anderson Silva and the other in a hard to watch beatdown against Robbie Lawler. The last time Nick Diaz won a fight, Barack Obama was barely into his first term as president. This isn’t a matter of want, it’s a matter of capability.

I do not know why Nick Diaz is coming back. I hope it’s not because he has to but mostly I hope he gets out of this fight as unscathed as possible. The fact that Luque also looks to be on the well-done side of cooked makes this at least more tolerable than the Lawler matchup, but barely.

Maybe I’m wrong and Nick comes back and looks incredible, but I’m anticipating this to be one of the worst parts of MMA this year. I guess we’ll see.

Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.