Major ‘Wizard of Oz’ Profits Could Push Sphere to More Movie Reimaginings

Every day thousands of people are paying nearly $200 each to watch a film released more than 85 years ago.

Of course, this isn’t just any film. It’s an all-time classic: The Wizard of Oz. And this isn’t just any movie theater: It’s the Sphere in Las Vegas.

And it may be a sign of things to come. Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino forecasts that Sphere may be “The world’s most profitable venue,” and that the stunning success of The Wizard of Oz (hundreds of thousands of tickets have already been sold) will likely kickstart a years-long process to adapt far more titles to the venue’s 160,000 square foot screen.

“We expect Wizard of Oz’s success will propel gross profit to over $500M in ’26, resulting in Sphere segment AOI approaching $200M, and making the underlying profits of the venue evidently clear and therefore SPHR more investable,” Supino writes. “Wizard of Oz success also bolsters the odds of future franchise deals, all while giving confidence that Sphere can re-create other valuable IP (for less than the ~$100M spent on Wizard of Oz) and generate highly appealing returns.”

Already, Bloomberg reported, Dolan has held preliminary discussions with Warner Bros. about the Harry Potter films, and with Disney about titles like Star Wars. A regular cadence of new films could not only power the venue, but drive tens of millions (or even hundreds of millions) of incremental revenue to Hollywood studios in dire need of reliable cashflow.

Indeed, the success of the film could cause Sphere to rethink its programming mix, Supino notes.

“We conservatively assume some Wizard of Oz shows will take the place of some concerts due to Wizard of Oz’s greater level of profitability,” he writes.

The Wizard of Oz was also a pet project of Sphere chairman and CEO James Dolan, who dreamed of bringing the classic to film to life inside the arena that he originally imagined as the world’s best concert venue. Dolan, a well-known music buff (he also fronts his own band, JD and the Straight Shot), had leaned on big ticket concerts from the likes U2 and the Backstreet Boys to bolster revenue for the venue since it launched. The executive also digitally inserted himself and Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav into the film, albeit briefly.

Sphere spent nearly $100 million to reimagine the Wizard of Oz alongside Warner Bros. and producer Jane Rosenthal, cutting nearly 20 minutes, while using AI to dramatically upscale the film to fit on the venue’s massive screen. The company also used new techniques to recreate a tornado inside the venue, and to bring falling apples and flying monkeys above audience members heads in moments that make audience members feel as though they are inside the film.

And Glenn Derry, executive vp of MSG Ventures, the executive responsible for the technology and physical effects in the venue, told The Hollywood Reporter that the special effects developed for The Wizard of Oz could be repurposed for other films or shows.

“The way I look at it is, everything we’re doing is evergreen, right?” Derry said. “A lot of these things, like the wind effects, the smoke, the haze, the other elements that we’re doing, they’re all able to be used by any group or any act that comes in here. That’s part of the fun of the fun of this, is try to figure out, like, oh, what else can we use this for?

“You can build all these layers, and then you sort of have your toolbox, and then you can apply the different tools as they happen, and again, you build these things at a cool scale that no one else is doing,” he adds. “It gives you a chance to mix and match in a way that other people don’t have that the ability to do.”

The Sphere’s first original film, Darren Aronofsky’s documentary Postcard From Earth, was an interesting test-case for the screen, but steered away from physical immersion.

But The Wizard of Oz marks a new beginning for the venue, which isn poised to turn its financial future around, thanks to the magic of a Hollywood classic.

“This is the moment that we’ve been waiting for. We’re finally off to see the Wizard,” Dolan excitedly told attendees of the world premiere last month.

If a 1939 film can bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in 2025 and 2026, imagine what a slate of reimagined classics could deliver.