March Madness upset predictions 2025: Which 13 seed is most likely to win in first round?

Can Yale do it again? 

The Bulldogs beat Auburn as a No. 13 seed last season. Now, the Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament and one of the trendy upset first-round picks in the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. 

No. 13 Yale (22-7) faces No. 4 Texas A&M (22-10) in the South Region. No. 13 Grand Canyon (26-7) meets No. 4 Maryland (25-8) in the West Region. No. 13 High Point (29-5) faces No. 4 Purdue (22-11) in the Midwest Region. No. 13 Akron (28-6) faces No. 4 Arizona (22-12) in the East Region.

The No. 13 seed is 33-123 in the first round — a winning percentage of .211. A total of six No. 13 seeds have reached the Sweet 16, but we have yet to see at No. 13 break through to the Final Four. Furman and Yale have won as No. 13 seeds each of the last two seasons. 

(Odds listed according to DraftKings sportsbook)

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March Madness upset predictions 2025No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Texas A&M Odds: Texas A&M -7.5 

Why this can happen: The Bulldogs have guard John Poulakidis, who averaged 19 points this season and averaged 18.5 points in tournament games against Auburn and San Diego State last season. He’s one of three Yale players who average double figures. Both teams allow less than 70 points per game, and Texas A&M lost five of its last seven games. Yale coach James Jones has led the Bulldogs to five tournament appearances, so the experience will not be overwhelming. 

No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Maryland Odds: Maryland -11.5

Why this can happen: Bryce Drew led the Antelopes to a first-round upset in the tournament last season. Guard Tyon Grant-Foster returned from an injury in the WAC tournament, and he has NBA potential. Maryland does not have a deep bench, so foul trouble would help Grand Canyon here. The Antelopes are making their fourth tournament appearance since 2021, but they will need to find a way to limit opportunities for Maryland freshman center Darik Queen, who averages 16.3 points and nine rebounds. 

No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 PurdueOdds: Purdue -8.5

Why this can happen: The Panthers averaged 28 wins the last two seasons under Alan Huss. Kezza Giff – a guard from Paris, France – led the team with 14.8 points per game. High Point ranks 16th in the nation in effective field-goal percentage at 56.5%, too. Purdue lost to double-digit seeds in three consecutive seasons from 2021-23, and the Boilermakers did lose six of their last nine games.

No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4 Arizona Odds: Arizona -14.5

Why this can happen: Akron guards Nate Johnson (14 ppg.) and Tavari Johnson (13 ppg.) are scorers and facilitators. They both average close to four assists per game. Akron coach John Groce now has three tournament appearances with the Zips. Arizona gave up 80 or more points in 10 games this season – and they were 4-6 in those games. The Wildcats lost to Buffalo the last time they faced a Mid-American Conference opponent in the 2018 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. 

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Which 13 seed is the best bet for an upset?Akron faces the longest odds knowing they are 0-5 in the NCAA tournament. Maryland had just one loss outside of Quad 1, so Grand Canyon would be a larger upset than last season. Purdue is a touch over-seeded, but the Big South has won just four tournament games in conference history. Yale remains the best bet – and the oddsmakers have shown that with a tricky spread. Texas A&M has a senior backcourt with Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps, and they have been through the SEC grind. While Yale might be a popular upset pick here, it’s still a long-shot from this line.

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