Men’s NCAA Bracket 2024: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship
Men’s NCAA Bracket 2024: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship0 of 16
Connecticut’s Donovan ClinganElsa/Getty Images
If you’re a big fan of Cinderella stories, the Sweet 16 of the men’s 2024 NCAA tournament might not be for you.
Oh, it’s going to be an awesome round of games. Wish we didn’t have to wait through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to resume play.
However, there’s no Princeton, Saint Peter’s or Oral Roberts who feel like a 250-1 threat to win it all, at best. Everyone left in this year’s Dance realistically could win four more games.
It does still feel a bit like UConn vs. The Field, though, doesn’t it?
Our national championship odds for each of the remaining 16 teams are based on a combination of how good each squad was during the regular season, how good it has looked through two games and how difficult its remaining path is.
All of the remaining paths are brutal, though. Usually there’s a completely broken region that results in maybe the fifth-best team left in the field feeling like possibly the favorite to win it all, but that is not the case this year.
Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood to win the title. Odds sum to 100 percent and are not intended to reflect actual betting lines in Vegas, which tend to sum to around 135 percent.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (No. 11, South Regional)1 of 16
DJ BurnsJoe Sargent/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
After winning seven games in 12 days, perhaps the most important part of NC State’s road ahead is getting about 140 hours off between its second-round and Sweet 16 games. But waiting for the Wolfpack when they return to action Friday will be Marquette and its high-octane offense. Would be quite the adjustment from that to a possible Elite Eight pairing with Houston’s exceptional defense.
Reason to Buy
This is the team of destiny. Every team that has won five games in five days to win its conference tournament has gone on to win the NCAA tournament. Sure, that’s a one-of-one club featuring 2011 Connecticut at this point, but they’re still batting 1.000 and NC State is still alive into the second weekend. The Wolfpack are playing great right now and all season have been one of the best in the nation about not shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers.
Reason to Sell
They’ve been uncommonly lucky in the three-point defense department over their last six games, including Jack Gohlke missing quite a few open looks in that second-round game against Oakland. If and when that worm turns and NC State goes back to the team that allowed opponents to shoot 40.6 percent from distance from Feb. 10 through March 12, the magic carriage will turn back into a pumpkin in a hurry.
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The trio of DJ Horne, DJ Burns Jr. and Mohamed Diarra continues to show up in a huge way. There has understandably been a lot of love for Burns, but Diarra has been a major catalyst for this team’s resurgence, averaging 11.7 points, 13.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks over his last six games. This team has been very tough to beat when all three play well.
Title Odds: +10000
San Diego State Aztecs (No. 5, East Regional)2 of 16
San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDeeSteph Chambers/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
San Diego State is now 7-1 in the last two NCAA tournaments, but up next is the team responsible for that lone loss. The Aztecs will get a national championship rematch with Connecticut, hoping for a different outcome this time around. Should they flip the script and upset the Huskies, no rest for the weary. The subsequent game against either Iowa State or Illinois could feel like a championship game in its own right.
Reason to Buy
Though not quite as dominant on defense as they had been over the past two seasons, the Aztecs are still exceptional on that end of the floor. They haven’t allowed an opponent to score 73 or more points in regulation since January. And with Jaedon LeDee leading the way, SDSU’s offense getting to 73 points isn’t as much of a Herculean task as it has been in most years.
Reason to Sell
While LeDee is great in the post, San Diego State’s perimeter attack is atrocious. We’re talking “Aztecs’ worst three-point percentage since 2000” badāand they’ve had some brutal shooting seasons over the past two decades. Few teams have been able to neutralize LeDee, but scoring becomes a major uphill battle if he gets shut down.
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The D and LeDee lead the way. He had 32 points in the first-round nail-biter against UAB, as well as 34 in the overtime win over UNLV in the Mountain West tournament. It was Kemba Walker who ended one of San Diego State’s best seasons back in 2011, but the Aztecs just about need him to become that type of one-man wrecking crew if they’re going to win four more games.
Title Odds: +9000
Clemson Tigers (No. 6, West Regional)3 of 16
Clemson’s PJ HallJustin Ford/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Clemson was an underdog in each of its first two games against New Mexico and Baylor, so it won’t be afraid of the impending Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona. If the Tigers can knock off the Wildcats, that should set up a rubber match with North Carolina, in which the road team won each of the regular-season meetings.
Reason to Buy
When PJ Hall is playing well, he’s maybe the best stretch-5 in the country. Ian Schieffelin is a rebounding machine and an incredible glue guy. Joe Girard is the best free-throw shooter in the nation. And Chase Hunter is playing his best basketball of the season right now. It didn’t always come together over the past four-plus months, but you don’t win at Alabama and at North Carolina without a little championship potential.
Reason to Sell
The Tigers don’t manufacture many points via steals, offensive rebounds or fouls drawn, and they don’t have good enough shooting percentages to justify that sort of approach. It worked for the first five weeks of the season, but they weren’t as efficient in the process of losing 11 of their final 23 games heading into the Dance.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
That Big Four puts the team on its back. Hall, Schieffelin, Girard and Hunter combined for 67 in the win at UNC and for 61 when the Tigers won at Alabama. The quartet was also huge in the opening wins over New Mexico and Baylor. They could propel Clemson to the first Final Four in program history. At that point, go ahead and finish the fight, too.
Title Odds: +8000
Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 4, West Regional)4 of 16
Alabama’s Mark SearsC. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Here’s hoping Alabama has some energy left in the tank after those track meets against Charleston and Grand Canyon, because business is about to pick up in earnest. The Crimson Tide will get No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16 with Arizona looming as the likely Elite Eight foe. Sure would be something if they can knock out both halves of the ‘Caleb Love Bowl.’
Reason to Buy
Alabama can run n’ gun like no other. The second-round game against Grand Canyon was an up-tempo rock fight, but it continued the Crimson Tide’s season-long streak of scoring at least 70 points in every game. And when they score at least 96, they are 14-0. Sure, most teams are going to be undefeated when scoring at least 96, but how many can say they have done so 14 times?
Reason to Sell
Where are the quality wins? In 12 games against teams presently ranked in the KenPom top 30, Alabama went 2-10 with a four-point home win over Auburn (lost by 18 in the rematch) and an overtime home win over Florida (lost the other two games against the Gators by a combined 32 points). This is clearly a great offense, but they’ve given us no good reason to believe they can consecutively beat the likes of North Carolina and Arizona. (Or even Arizona’s Sweet 16 foe Clemson, who the Tide lost to at home back in November.)
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Offense wins championships. Alabama was pretty committed on the defensive end against GCU, but its year-to-date defensive efficiency ranks dead last among teams left in the dance. Unfortunately, while you do need some offense to win a national championship, needing some defense is historically even more crucial.
Title Odds: +6000
Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3, East Regional)5 of 16
Marcus DomaskDavid Berding/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
The whole “no true point guard” thing is going to be put to the test in a big way in the Sweet 16 matchup with an Iowa State team that will prey upon even the slightest lapse in ball security. Survive that one and it will likely be reigning champion and title favorite Connecticut awaiting Illinois in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy
The offense is elite. Illinois has scored at least 70 points in 20 consecutive games, going for at least 85 in 15 of those contests. It is getting to the point where you should probably just assume either Terrence Shannon Jr. or Marcus Domask is going to go for at least 30 points. But all eight members of the primary rotation can take over on occasion.
Reason to Sell
Though the Illini did hold both Morehead State and Duquesne under 70 points, the defense is nowhere near as good as the offense. In fact, they’ve allowed at least 85 points seven times during that streak of 70-plus performances, and we’re not even talking about great offenses. They struggled to slow down Penn State and Minnesota and gave up 96 to a Northwestern team that is usually perfectly happy to play a game in the 60s.
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They simply outscore everything in their path. The “Top 5 Offense, Barely Top 100 Defense” teams never win it all and rarely even make it to the Final Four, but we all know darn well they can beat anyone in the country when the offense shows up. Miami almost pulled it off last year until going ice cold in the Final Four against Connecticut. Maybe Illinois can do it.
Title Odds: +5000
Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 5, Midwest Regional)6 of 16
Graham IkeChris Gardner/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Into the Sweet 16 for the ninth consecutive tournament, the Zags will have their work cut out for them to reach the Final Four for the third time in program history. They’ll need to deal with Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 before likely running into Dalton Knecht and the Tennessee Volunteers in the Elite Eight. Those programs/coaches have gotten a reputation for falling flat in March, but those are easily two of the five best teams left in the field.
Reason to Buy
Save for a couple of tough losses at the hands of archrival Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs have been unbeaten since mid-January. That includes announcing their legitimacy in a road win over Kentucky and putting a serious thumping on Kansas in the second half of that second-round victory. Not many teams hotter than Graham Ike and the Zags right now.
Reason to Sell
This rings hollow after an opening weekend in which it held a pair of quality offenses below 70 points, but Gonzaga’s defense wasn’t anything special for most of the season, particularly along the perimeter. And even when that defense did show up back in Maui against Purdue (12 steals, Boilermakers shot 4-for-17 from three), the Boilermakers still won that game by double digits.
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They remain red-hot. Offense has always been the name of the game for Mark Few and the Zags, and they are a perfect 24-0 this season when scoring at least 77 points. Five players scored in double figures in each of their first two tournament games, which doesn’t even include point guard Ryan Nembhard and his 13 points and 21 assists. If that continues, Gonzaga is going to be mighty tough to beat.
Title Odds: +3500
Duke Blue Devils (No. 4, South Regional)7 of 16
Duke’s Jared McCainSarah Stier/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
There have been questions throughout the season about how tough Duke actually is, and the Blue Devils are about to get a major opportunity to answer those questions (one way or the other) in a Sweet 16 showdown with Houston. If they can emerge victorious from that one, it’ll either be a high-quality Elite Eight matchup with Marquette or a third meeting with NC State in March alone.
Reason to Buy
That Blue Devils team we were expecting when they were ranked No. 2 in the preseason AP poll? It may have finally arrived. Don’t want to put too much stock in a pair of wins over Vermont and James Madison, but Duke was dominant on defense in both games, while Tyrese Proctor is back to looking like the phenom he was last March. Jared McCain has legitimate Most Outstanding Player potential.
Reason to Sell
Duke looked good in blowout wins this weekend, but the Blue Devils are still just 2-7 in games decided by seven points or fewer this season. Can they win in a nail-biter? And with Caleb Foster out for the year with an injury, do they have enough depth to survive the impending war with Houston?
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
The stars come to shine. Anyone in this starting five can carry the team, but the big unknown is always how many and which ones will show up? Thus far, four of the five scored at least 13 in each of the first two games, which might be enough if it continues. No time like late March to start playing your best as a team.
Title Odds: +3000
Creighton Bluejays (No. 3, Midwest Regional)8 of 16
Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey AlexanderTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
In what might be the most compelling game of the Sweet 16, it’ll be a major contrast in styles when Creighton takes its free-flowing, three-point-heavy approach up against a physical, defensive-minded Tennessee team. If the Bluejays can win that one, it could set up one heck of a battle in the paint between Ryan Kalkbrenner and Purdue’s Zach Edey in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy
When Creighton gets into one of its grooves on offense, it can run away with a win in a hurry. The Bluejays rank third in the nation in effective field-goal percentage on offense. But they’re also 10th in that department on defense and foul at one of the lowest rates in the nation. Plenty to like here.
Reason to Sell
Creighton does not force turnovers, it doesn’t get many offensive rebounds and it rarely draws fouls, averaging fewer than 15 free-throw attempts per game. The Jays actually allow 6.3 more field-goal attempts per game than they take, so they often need that substantial eFG% edge to survive. They can also be pushed around a bit, as evidenced by the two losses to Providence.
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Threes are finding their mark. We’re not even talking 40 percent, either. Creighton relies on the deep ball as much as any team in the country and is 23-3 this season when making at least 30 percent of those shots. Moreover, in two of those three losses, they ran into an opponent that just could not miss, as it takes a borderline miracle to beat Creighton when shots are falling with any regularity.
Title Odds: +2500
Iowa State Cyclones (No. 2, East Regional)9 of 16
Tamin LipseyMichael Reaves/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Iowa State’s elite defense is about to be brutally put to the test against two of the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Cyclones are definitely drawing Illinois in the Sweet 16. If they can survive that one, they’re probably running up against Connecticut (in Boston, no less) in the Elite Eight. This is a quality team, but just reaching the Final Four is unlikely, let alone winning it all.
Reason to Buy
Defense wins championships, right? Iowa State and Houston have gone back and forth on who is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but either way, the moral of the story is this team is excellent on that end of the floor. Not only do they generate a ton of turnovers, but they make you work so hard for open looks that most teams shoot worse than usual against the Cyclones just out of sheer exhaustion.
Reason to Sell
They can be beaten with three-pointers and are unlikely to respond with triples of their own. Iowa State does have four capable perimeter shooters in its primary seven-man rotation, but this generally is not much of a three-point shooting team, making five triples or fewer in 13 games. Conversely, nine foes have made at least 10 threes against the Cyclones. And when those two circles intersect, it’s usually in an Iowa State loss.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
It finds enough offense to supplement all the turnovers it can force. Ranking among the nation’s best in steals was a big part of Baylor’s 2021 title run, but so was having one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. Got to make shots to win a title. And while certainly better in that department than it had been over the past four years, we’ll see if Iowa State can shoot well enough to get the job done.
Title Odds: +2000
Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 2, South Regional)10 of 16
Marquette’s Tyler KolekAndy Lyons/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Sometimes the bracket breaks in your favor, and Marquette is about to draw its third consecutive double-digit seed when it faces NC State in the Sweet 16. Of course, at this point, the seeds are irrelevant, and the Golden Eagles had better take the red-hot Wolfpack seriously if they want to face a single-digit seed in the Elite Eight, either Houston or Duke.
Reason to Buy
With Tyler Kolek back from his oblique injury, this offense is back to firing on all cylinders. Kam Jones is averaging 21.5 points per game since the beginning of February, but he was completely overlooked for the All-Big East teams earlier this month and might be using that chip on his shoulder to do something special this March.
Reason to Sell
Marquette ranks in the bottom 25 percent nationally in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding. Despite shooting the lights out in the second-round win over Colorado, the Buffaloes were able to stay in that game until the bitter end by turning 12 offensive rebounds into 17 second-chance points. And when Marquette isn’t forcing turnovers, its defense isn’t anything special.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
Turnover margin is a bigger factor than rebounding margin. In going 0-3 against Connecticut, Marquette finished a combined plus-two in turnover margin and minus-36 in rebound margin. That’s not going to cut it. But if the Golden Eagles can hold their own on the glass while routinely turning steals into good offense, maybe Shaka Smart can join Al McGuire on the list of national championship-winning coaches at Marquette.
Title Odds: +1800
Tennessee Volunteers (No. 2, Midwest Regional)11 of 16
Dalton KnechtJared C. Tilton/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Up next for Tennessee is a matchup with Creighton that the Volunteers were surely hoping to avoid. Not because of any history between the programs. They haven’t met since 1937. Rather, it’s because few teams are better equipped to make it rain threes, and the Vols allow a lot of perimeter shots. Win that one and they’ll likely run into another excellent three-point shooting team in Purdue, which also has a 7’4″ soon-to-be two-time NPOY at its disposal.
Reason to Buy
The defense allows a lot of three-point attempts, but that defense is the strength of the Volunteers, ranking third behind only Houston and Iowa State in adjusted efficiency. Part of the reason they allow so many threes is because opponents would rather not try to score within 10 feet of Jonas Aidoo. This is also usually a potent offense, going 22-2 when scoring at least 73 points.
Reason to Sell
You saw the game against Texas, yes? Tennessee has been less likely to have those kinds of atrocious offensive showings than it was in recent years, but even with Dalton Knecht, this team does still have nights when it can’t buy a bucket, held below 70 points in five of its last 15 games.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
The defense clamps down and they get a good number of non-Knecht buckets. We all know the leading scorer is going to show up. Knecht is averaging 25.3 points over his last 20 games, scoring at least 13 in each of those contests. The big unknown is whether Aidoo, Zakai Zeigler or anyone else will help him out. The Vols can beat anyone when he doesn’t have to be a one-man offense.
Title Odds: +1600
Arizona Wildcats (No. 2, West Regional)12 of 16
Caleb LoveChristian Petersen/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Arizona will have quite the geographic advantage for however much longer it lasts in the Dance, playing the next two rounds in Los Angeles, followed by a short trip to Phoenix for the Final Four. The Wildcats will get Clemson in that first game in L.A. before the dream/nightmare “Caleb Love Bowl” showdown with North Carolina possibly looming in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy
There were some hiccups here and there in Pac-12 play, but Arizona was one of the better teams in the country for the majority of the season. The Wildcats are outstanding on the glass and thrive in an uptempo game, ranking top 10 in the nation in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Reason to Sell
There are games (or stretches of games) where the backcourt just doesn’t show up on either end of the floor, which can cause things to spiral out of control for Arizona. The worst, of course, are the games where Love’s shots aren’t falling and he relentlessly tries to shoot his way out of it, refusing to accept it just isn’t his night. If that impacts his play on defense, too, even worse.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
Kylan Boswell plays like he did in the opener against Long Beach State. The sophomore point guard went for 20 points and eight assists against the Beach, and the Wildcats have been virtually unbeatable when he plays even moderately well, going 23-1 when he posts an O-rating north of 75āthe lone loss coming in that double-OT extravaganza against FAU in December. They survived an off night from him against Dayton, but they probably won’t be so lucky when the level of competition increases.
Title Odds: +1200
North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 1, West Regional)13 of 16
RJ DavisJacob Kupferman/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
The Sweet 16 matchup between North Carolina and Alabama is going to have one of the highest over/unders in recent NCAA tournament history, but the Tar Heels should be able to survive a Crimson Tide team that plays little to no defense and has consistently been unable to beat this tier of opponent all season. If winning that game sets up an Elite Eight showdown with Caleb Love and Arizona, get your popcorn ready.
Reason to Buy
UNC is a great rebounding squad, an even better defense and a team that rarely shoots itself in the foot with turnovers. In RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, they have four veteran leaders who have shown they can carry the team to victory against a quality foe. The Tar Heels have also played in five of the last 18 national championships, which is two more than any other program.
Reason to Sell
As efficient as the defense has been, there are nights where this team is helpless to stop anything. And when allowing 73 or more points, the Heels are just 4-7 this season, despite their potent offense.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
The offense continues to do its thing. In the second-round victory over Michigan State, North Carolina improved to 16-0 when scoring at least 84 points. It’s most often Davis leading the way, closing in on 800 points for the season. However, the Heels have so many offensive weapons that they’ve been able to hit that 84 plateau even when he’s not playing his best.
Title Odds: +1100
Houston Cougars (No. 1, South Regional)14 of 16
Houston’s Emanuel SharpJoe Murphy/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Maybe Houston started thinking about this road ahead toward the end of that second-round game against Texas A&M, but now the Cougars can officially start to focus on their impending matchup with Duke. They ought to be able to beat the Blue Devils with their physicality and should be able to relentlessly out-rebound Marquette in the Elite Eight, but we shall see.
Reason to Buy
Houston’s defense is second to none, both blocking shots and generating steals at darn near the highest rates in the nation. Even when opponents do get shots off, they struggle to actually make them, which is understandable, given how hard you have to work to get an inch of space against this defense. The Cougars also rank among the best at both crashing the offensive glass and avoiding turnovers.
Reason to Sell
Houston shot quite well in that overtime classic against Texas A&M, but was that the beginning of turning over a new leaf or did the Cougars use up all of their magic in that one game? For the year, they have not been a proficient shooting team, especially on nights when Jamal Shead is struggling to hit anything.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
They score at least 68 points in each of their next four games. Houston can win when checking in below that mark, but it is a perfect 25-0 when reaching what is not a particularly demanding threshold. The Cougars basically just need to avoid a terrible shooting night, but they’ve shot below 40 percent eight times this season.
Title Odds: +850
Purdue Boilermakers (No. 1, Midwest Regional)15 of 16
Purdue’s Zach EdeyAndy Lyons/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
After trouncing both Grambling State and Utah State in the opening weekend, the level of difficulty on Purdue’s redemption tour is about to go up considerably. The Boilermakers will draw Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 before potentially running into Tennessee in the Elite Eight and maybe Marquette in the Final Four. If that sounds a little familiar, it’s the exact same path Purdue went through to win that loaded Maui Invitational back in November.
Reason to Buy
Last year, Purdue was terrible from three-point range. The year before that, this team’s defense was a disaster. But now, in addition to having an unstoppable 7’4″ force in the paint, the Boilermakers are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and a darn good overall defense, to boot.
Reason to Sell
*Gestures wildly at North Texas, Saint Peter’s and Fairleigh Dickinson.* The good news is Purdue’s streak of losing to double-digit seeds is going to come to an end, unless the Boilermakers happen to run into No. 11 seed NC State in the Final Four. But all of the recent history tells us this team is not to be trusted in Marchāeven though they are way more well-rounded and upset-proof than in previous years. The guards can still get pushed around a little bit, though.
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
Losing to a No. 16 seed is the magic pill you need to painfully swallow to finally break through the following year. It worked for Virginia in 2019. Maybe it works for Purdue this year. More rationally, this is a highly motivated, extremely talented team that can win it all. It is a little bit absurd, though, that if the Boilermakers do pull it off, FDU will somehow end up getting more credit for it than Zach Edey or Matt Painter.
Title Odds: +700
Connecticut Huskies (No. 1, East Regional)16 of 16
Connecticut’s Cam SpencerJamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
The Road Ahead
All eyes were on a possible UConn-Auburn Sweet 16 showdown while the brackets were being announced, but a repeat of last year’s national championship against San Diego State is a mighty fine consolation prize. If the Huskies can topple the Aztecs again, the Elite Eight game in Boston will either be an offensive masterpiece against Illinois or a high-level grind with Iowa State.
Reason to Buy
In addition to winning it all less than a year ago, Connecticut has been the best team in the country for the vast majority of this season. The gap between the Huskies’ effective field-goal percentage (57.2) and what they allow on defense (44.7) is a preposterous 12.5 points. To make matters worse for the opposition, UConn is also one of the better rebounding teams in the country and doesn’t commit many turnovers, meaning it usually gets up more shots than it allows.
Reason to Sell
Irrationally? It’s really hard to repeat. We’ve seen it once in three decades. But rationally? It remains at least a little concerning that Connecticut’s least efficient shooter (Tristen Newton) is also its most frequent shooter. He was fine these first two games, but if the going gets tough, will Newton start jacking up threes?
Will Cut Down the Nets If…
They’re able to simply play their game and avoid running into a buzzsaw of a hot-shooting team. Were it not for Creighton turning into an inferno of buckets in Omaha last month, the Huskies would be undefeated in 2024. It just takes so many things going wrong for this team to lose, and they remain the clear favorite to win it all.
Title Odds: +250
