Men’s NCAA Tournament 2024: B/R Expert Predictions for First Round

Men’s NCAA Tournament 2024: B/R Expert Predictions for First Round0 of 32

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With the First Four of the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament complete, the tournament can officially begin.

I know, I know. The tournament started Tuesday. Could someone let Virginia know that, though? It seems the Cavaliers missed the memo.

Anyway, we’ve got 32 games over the course of about 36 hours. So many bracket implications. So many things to bet on. So much to consider in advance of the two greatest days on the sports calendar.

I’ve spent most of my waking hours since the selection show poring over these matchups, searching for any and every spot where an underdog might have an advantage or where the predictive analytics/betting lines seem to be missing something significant.

For each of the 32 games, we’ll briefly sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering a spot where you might consider placing a wager.

Lastly, our college basketball experts will each offer their prediction on which team gets the win.

Lines from DraftKings and updated at 10 p.m. ET Wednesday.

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No. 8 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats1 of 32

Johnell DavisChris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Northwestern (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Brooklyn

One-Sentence Synopsis: Mercurial Florida Atlantic takes on Methodical Northwestern in a first-round game that should feature quite a few three-point buckets.

Florida Atlantic Wins If: Dr. Jekyll can keep Mr. Hyde at bay. When “Good FAU” shows up, it can be anyone, especially a short-handed Northwestern squad. “Bad FAU” is always lurking just around the corner, though, and could rear its ugly head in a loss to just about anyone.

Northwestern Wins If: Boo Buie does Boo Buie things. FAU has had a world of trouble this season trying to slow down opposing guards who can take over a game by their lonesome, which Buie most certainly can do. It might take a particularly Herculean effort from the fifth-year senior to stop the Owls’ quest for back-to-back Final Fours before it can really begin, but maybe he’ll be in his bag in this one.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Florida Atlantic -3. Not only did the Owls get a much better seed than they deserved—a little mea culpa for egregiously under-seeding them last year, perhaps?—but they got the best possible first-round draw against a depleted Northwestern. The Wildcats have not been the same team since losing Ty Berry in early February, and they’ve also been without big man Matthew Nicholson for the past couple of games. FAU should roll.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Northwestern

Kerry Miller: Florida Atlantic

Joel Reuter: Florida Atlantic

No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Colgate Raiders2 of 32

Ja’Kobe WalterJohn E. Moore III/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV), Memphis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Colgate returns to its fifth consecutive NCAA tournament, still in pursuit of that elusive first victory.

Baylor Wins If: The perimeter attack is doing its usual thing. Baylor shoots almost 40 percent from three-point range as a team. And though Colgate’s three-point percentage allowed looks great, that’s largely a product of playing in the Patriot League. The Raiders typically allow a lot of three-point attempts and don’t force many turnovers. The Bears could find a comfort zone from distance.

Colgate Wins If: Baylor’s defense decides to really not show up. This isn’t the same Colgate team from last year that led the nation in effective field-goal percentage, but the Raiders do have plenty of shooters to throw at a Baylor defense that ranks 229th in effective field-goal percentage. The Bears have generally been respectable on that end of the floor, but there have been games in which they were way more of a sieve than a brick wall.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Baylor -14. Even with the best shooting team in the country last season, Colgate immediately lost by 20 to Texas. Now that the Raiders offense is considerably less potent, Baylor should be able to win by a similar margin.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Baylor

Kerry Miller: Baylor

Joel Reuter: Baylor

No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers3 of 32

Jaedon LeDeeTony Ding/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET (TNT), Spokane

One-Sentence Synopsis: Should be quite the acronym showdown when SDSU takes on UAB. (It’s a shame the committee didn’t put this game in SLC.)

San Diego State Wins If: Its defense clamps down. Early in the year, it looked like the Aztecs might be going away from their bread and butter of elite defense. (Remember the 100-97 game against Washington?) But in 17 games played since mid-January, they’ve given up just 65.8 points on average, not once allowing an opponent to reach 80. UAB’s offense has been humming lately, but the Blazers might be running into a buzz saw.

UAB Wins If: It’s Yaxel Lendeborg Time. It’s already a foregone conclusion that if UAB pulls off this upset, the world is going to fall in love with Lendeborg. Because in addition to Yaxel Lendeborg just being a lot of fun to say, he is a force of nature in the paint. The JUCO transfer has 19 double-doubles this season and is averaging 16.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.2 blocks over his last 15 games. Everyone will be expecting SDSU’s third-team AP All-American Jaedon LeDee to take over this game, but it might be Lendeborg.

If I Had to Bet on Something: UAB +225 ML. All of the other potential 12-over-5 upsets are getting a lot of love, but this one is being taken for granted. UAB can play, and Andy Kennedy can coach. And are we seriously just assuming SDSU is a safe pick after one deep run, when getting bounced early was this team’s M.O. for years?

Predictions

David Kenyon: SDSU

Kerry Miller: UAB

Joel Reuter: SDSU

No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers4 of 32

Stevie MitchellSarah Stier/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS), Indianapolis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Tyler Kolek’s expected return to action for Marquette could be the catalyst for an entertaining, high-scoring affair with Western Kentucky.

Marquette Wins If: It gets a decent number of turnovers. Shaka Smart’s approach on defense is no longer as relentlessly turnover-driven as it was during his time with VCU, but Marquette can generate a lot of steals, with Stevie Mitchell leading that charge. And in Western Kentucky’s pursuit of playing the fastest basketball in the nation, it does get pretty loose with its ball security. Marquette should get to 10 steals in a relatively comfortable win.

Western Kentucky Wins If: The run-and-gun approach finds its mark more often than not. The Hilltoppers are No. 1 in adjusted tempo, but No. 190 in adjusted offensive efficiency. If that holds true, they’re in a lot of trouble here. If they’re flying up and down the court and shooting 50 percent from downtown, however, things become much more interesting. Maybe leading scorer Don McHenry guides this deep rotation of ‘Toppers to a stunner.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 158. Both Marquette and Western Kentucky rank top-10 in the nation in average possession length. There legitimately could be around 150 field goals attempted in this game, and some of them are bound to go in. KenPom pretty well agrees with this total with a prediction of Marquette winning 86-72, but this could be more like 96-82.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Marquette

Kerry Miller: Marquette

Joel Reuter: Marquette

No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters5 of 32

Cam SpencerSarah Stier/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Stetson (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Brooklyn

One-Sentence Synopsis: The Stetson Hatters are very likely haters of drawing the title favorite in the first round.

Connecticut Wins If: The nation’s most efficient offense does its thing against the No. 342-ranked defense. You know that GIF of the security guard who is basically just waving people through the line when he’s supposed to be doing pat-downs? Get that one ready for this game. Hard to imagine Stetson doing anything to slow down this freight train of an offense.

Stetson Wins If: It absolutely shoots the lights out. Listen, this No. 16 seed is no joke. Stetson won at UCF. It put up a pretty good fight in an eight-point loss at Cincinnati—a team that missed the dance but won games away from home against Kansas, BYU and Texas Tech. And it’s because the Hatters have shooters. Jalen Blackmon went for 43 in the A-Sun championship game and could get very wet from three-point range.

If I Had to Bet on Something: 1H Over 70.5. The full-game total of 144.5 is probably a stay-away, in case Connecticut blows this thing wide open and just goes into cruise control in the second half. But 70.5 in the first half? Are we sure that’s for both teams and not just UConn? Betting every first-half under in the NCAA tournament has historically been a lucrative strategy, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if this one is something like 54-32 at the intermission.

Predictions

David Kenyon: UConn

Kerry Miller: UConn

Joel Reuter: UConn

No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos6 of 32

PJ HallEakin Howard/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV), Memphis

One-Sentence Synopsis: An underdog only from a seeding perspective, New Mexico is the betting favorite against Clemson after its run to the Mountain West tournament title.

Clemson Wins If: Nonconference Clemson shows up. The Tigers did have a shocking road win over North Carolina in early February, but this team got a No. 6 seed way more because of what it did in the first five weeks of the season than anything it has accomplished since Christmas. But the Tigers did feel like a borderline No. 1 seed at one time, and could go on a bit of a surprise run in this tournament if PJ Hall reemerges as a stat-sheet stuffer.

New Mexico Wins If: It stays hot and healthy. This isn’t your standard No. 11 seed. The Lobos pretty convincingly won the MWC tournament and enter the dance ranked No. 23 on KenPom. They aren’t the most efficient offense in the world because they rely on a lot of mid-range jumpers, but they sure are lethal when they get going. Any of the guards (Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. or Donovan Dent) can take over a game, and they do have more than enough frontcourt talent to potentially stifle Clemson’s Hall and Ian Schieffelin.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 151.5. Pace could dictate the winner here, as New Mexico loves to get out and run while Clemson basically only sends Schieffelin after offensive rebounds while making sure to get back to prevent transition offense. But even if this ends up being played more so at the Tigers’ preferred tempo, they’ve played in quite a few games this season that eclipsed 150 points. This total feels unusually low.

Predictions

David Kenyon: New Mexico

Kerry Miller: New Mexico

Joel Reuter: New Mexico

No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs7 of 32

Johni BroomeAndy Lyons/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 4:15 p.m. ET (TNT), Spokane

One-Sentence Synopsis: Metrics-darling Auburn looks to impose its will and pace against the Ivy League champs.

Auburn Wins If: This is business as usual. There was that one weird loss at Appalachian State in early December, but Auburn has otherwise been a freight train against teams outside the KenPom top 40, winning every other game by double digits. (Yale is No. 84 on KenPom.) The Tigers have struggled to beat quality opponents this season, but their depth and their defensive tenacity tends to grind inferior foes to a pulp.

Yale Wins If: Danny Wolf becomes a matchup nightmare. A 7’0″ center with legitimate three-point range, excellent defensive rebounding marks and solid shot-blocking instincts, Wolf isn’t your typical Ivy League player. He completely vanished in the losses to Gonzaga and Princeton, as he was held scoreless in both games. But he could go for 25 and 12 while causing problems for Johni Broome and the Auburn frontcourt.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Auburn -13. With all due respect to Yale—which did stun Baylor in the first round eight years ago—this is not a good matchup and Auburn has won these games in blowout fashion basically all season.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Auburn

Kerry Miller: Auburn

Joel Reuter: Auburn

No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes8 of 32

Zyon PullinAndy Lyons/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Colorado (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS), Indianapolis

One-Sentence Synopsis: The Gators and Buffaloes square off in what might be the most difficult first-round game to forecast.

Florida Wins If: Zyon Pullin convincingly outplays KJ Simpson. Pullin has scored in double figures in all but one game played this season, and he usually racks up a good number of assists along the way. But this will be one heck of a lead guard battle between Pullin and Simpson, the latter of whom arguably should have been named Pac-12 POY instead of Arizona’s Caleb Love.

Colorado Wins If: It owns the paint. Florida already didn’t have a particularly great interior defense, and that got even more problematic with Micah Handlogten’s injury in the SEC championship game. Colorado prefers to do its damage down low and just might pound the painted area even more than usual, forcing freshmen Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh to show what they can do.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Colorado +105 ML. At full strength, Florida probably advances. However, that Handlogten injury is major. Now playing without one of the best offensive rebounders in the nation, Florida’s biggest strength is no longer anywhere near as strong, possibly leaving Eddie Lampkin to feast.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Colorado

Kerry Miller: Colorado

Joel Reuter: Florida

No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies9 of 32

Keisei TominagaDavid Berding/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Texas A&M (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT), Memphis

One-Sentence Synopsis: The possibility of Keisei Tominaga and Wade Taylor IV exchanging haymakers of big shots for 40 minutes could make this the best game of the entire first round.

Nebraska Wins If: Shooting percentages are even remotely in line with season averages. The Aggies have two big-time scorers in Taylor and Tyrece Radford, but they rank 345th in effective field-goal percentage. The worst team in that department to get an at-large bid last year was Mississippi State at 328th, and the Bulldogs predictably scored 59 in a first-round loss. The worst shooting at-large in 2022? Seton Hall, which immediately lost 69-42. It was Wichita State the year before that, and the Shockers lost 53-52. You get the idea. Meanwhile, Tominaga and the Cornhuskers could get hot from distance against a defense that allows three-point attempts at a sky-high rate.

Texas A&M Wins If: It relentlessly owns the glass, which it probably will. You can almost live with A&M’s horrific shooting percentages because it does get the offensive rebound on a nation-leading 42.0 percent of its misses. The Aggies are seventh in the nation in rebound margin. Nebraska is 184th. And if the ‘Huskers don’t have an answer for Andersson Garcia and Co., eventually, maybe on the fourth or fifth chance, they’ll put the ball in the hoop.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 147. This total suggests a 74-73 game, but the aforementioned effective field-goal percentage suggests otherwise. The last team to enter the dance with the worst eFG% (excluding No. 16 seeds) and score more than 60 points in the first round was South Carolina in 2017. Texas A&M may well win, but it will probably be a much lower scoring affair than what we saw from the Aggies in the SEC tournament.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Nebraska

Kerry Miller: Nebraska

Joel Reuter: Texas A&M

No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 13 Vermont Catamounts10 of 32

Jeremy RoachNicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Brooklyn

One-Sentence Synopsis: After relatively close calls in 2017, 2019 and 2022, Vermont looks to pull off a first-round upset for the first time since 2005.

Duke Wins If: It handles Vermont’s style with aplomb. Which it should. It feels like the best approach for beating Duke this season is to get physical, but the Catamounts take more of a hands-off approach, not really forcing turnovers or drawing/committing fouls. It’s just Vermont’s pace that could bother the Blue Devils, though they are certainly used to dealing with teams that are in no rush whatsoever after a decade’s worth of games against Virginia.

Vermont Wins If: TJ Long and Co. catch fire. The shooting percentages are not in Vermont’s favor, but the Catamounts do typically attempt a lot of triples. If Long, Aaron Deloney and others are actually hitting those shots with regularity, that would obviously be a game-changer and a recipe for an upset in a game that should have minimal second-chance points on either end of the floor.

If I Had to Bet on Something: First half under 62.5. Duke probably wins with a little room to spare in the end, but this game has the potential to be ugly for the first 20 minutes, with Vermont deliberately extending possessions while Duke tries to get into some sort of rhythm. A 31-25 type of halftime score could be in the cards.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Duke

Kerry Miller: Duke

Joel Reuter: Duke

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 16 Grambling State Tigers11 of 32

Zach EdeyDavid Berding/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Grambling State (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Indianapolis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Purdue tries to avoid another historic upset while Grambling State tries to get the SWAC into the second round of the dance for the first time since 1993.

Purdue Wins If: Someone other than Zach Edey shows up. In the stunning 63-58 loss to FDU, Edey went for 21 points, 15 rebounds and three blocks. He just didn’t have much support. Between the drastic improvement of Braden Smith since last year and the addition of Lance Jones, we can pretty well trust at least one Boilermaker under 7’4″ to play well in this game. That should do the trick.

Grambling State Wins If: Purdue can’t handle its physicality and if many shots are falling. Edey thrives at getting to the charity stripe, but so does Grambling State, averaging better than 21 free-throw attempts per game. The Tigers might just drive straight at Edey for their first 20 possessions, hoping to get the big man in foul trouble. Of course, he might block 10 shots in the process while Purdue opens up a 15-point lead before he gets called for his second foul, but it’s a strategy worth pursuing.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Purdue -26. Some No. 1 seeds don’t bother to pour it on in a first-round victory, but the Boilermakers will be highly motivated to remove all doubt in a rout. Against similarly rated Texas Southern and Jacksonville, Purdue won by 32 and by 43, respectively.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Purdue

Kerry Miller: Purdue

Joel Reuter: Purdue

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars12 of 32

Aaron EstradaJeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston

Details: Friday at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV), Spokane

One-Sentence Synopsis: Tuesday’s Virginia-Colorado State eyesore set college basketball back a decade, but this track meet ought to right the ship.

Alabama Wins If: Its relentless offense does its thing against a mid-major’s less-than-stellar defense. At a nation-leading 90.8 points per game, there’s no question Alabama can score in bunches. The Crimson Tide is third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and has the third-shortest average possession length—simply a blur of buckets. And against a Charleston defense that allowed 90 in each of its two games this season versus a top-100 foe, it should really be points-a-plenty.

Charleston Wins If: Pat Kelsey’s time has finally arrived. First at Winthrop and now at Charleston, Kelsey has been running this uptempo three-point assault for almost a decade, four times producing either a No. 12 or No. 13 seed. The previous three couldn’t quite find their rhythm in the dance, but Alabama’s last 10 opponents have averaged 94.0 points. Maybe Reyne Smith and Co. finally shoot Kelsey to a tournament win.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 173. The highest-scoring first-round game last year was only 171 points (featuring Alabama, by the way), but there is usually at least one first-round game that gets north of 175 with some room to spare. And this is very clearly the best candidate to fit that description.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Alabama

Kerry Miller: Alabama

Joel Reuter: Alabama

No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 Longwood Lancers13 of 32

Jamal SheadScott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Longwood (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT), Memphis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Longwood is a long shot to even keep this one interesting into the second half.

Houston Wins If: It imposes its will, per usual. The Cougars did suffer four losses this season away from home against solid opponents. But the 10 times they faced a foe ranked outside the KenPom top 125, they allowed an average of 45.0 points, not once relinquishing more than 55. Shooting woes might doom Houston against a better team, but it could just about miss every single three-point attempt and still win this game with its defense.

Longwood Wins If: There are a lot of whistles. We’re talking “so many whistles that Houston basically runs out of players” whistles, as the Cougars definitely are short-handed without JoJo Tugler, Ramon Walker and Terrance Arceneaux plus J’Wan Roberts now nursing a knee injury. But even what’s left of Houston’s bench should still be able to handle the Lancers.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 138.5. There’s no need for Houston to make some sort of statement in this game by scoring 90 points, and you can almost take it to the bank that Longwood isn’t topping 55 here. Last year’s first-round game against Northern Kentucky was a 63-52 rock fight. Maybe this one gets to 73-52 instead, but that’s still an under. Even 83-52 would be fine.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Houston

Kerry Miller: Houston

Joel Reuter: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes14 of 32

AJ StorrDavid Berding/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Brooklyn

One-Sentence Synopsis: Underdog with three losses all season takes on a No. 5 seed that only won three of its final 11 regular-season games.

Wisconsin Wins If: The Big Ten tournament was a legitimate turning point. In January, Wisconsin looked like a possible No. 1 seed. During their 16-4 start against what was a pretty tough schedule, they averaged 76.0 points and had a scoring margin of nearly plus-10 per game—despite the 25-point loss at Arizona. But this team was a dumpster fire in February before making a spirited, surprise run to the Big Ten title game. Are the Badgers back?

James Madison Wins If: Three-point defenses hold up. It’s the least reliable statistic you can possibly lean on when picking a game, but among the 68 tournament teams, James Madison’s three-point percentage allowed (28.6) ranks No. 1 while Wisconsin’s (37.1) ranks 68th. And while JMU’s three-point dependency on offense is in line with the national average, it does have five players who hit at least 40 triples this season, each shooting at least 34.7 percent in the process. It might just catch fire.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 146.5. Kind of feels like this total was set by someone who hasn’t watched Wisconsin this season. The Badgers are both more potent on offense and more porous on defense than they have been for most of the past decade. It’s not going to be a track meet, but there should be quite a few buckets made on both ends of the floor.

Predictions

David Kenyon: James Madison

Kerry Miller: James Madison

Joel Reuter: James Madison

No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs15 of 32

Great OsoborChris Gardner/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 9:55 p.m. ET (TBS), Indianapolis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Utah State and Naismith Coach of the Year candidate Danny Sprinkle goes up against the 2008-09 recipient of that award in TCU’s Jamie Dixon.

Utah State Wins If: Great Osobor owns the paint. He’s not quite Zach Edey in the foul-drawing department, but few players embrace contact and thrive against it quite like Osobor, averaging better than nine rebounds and better than eight free-throw attempts per game. And TCU does usually commit a fair amount of fouls as is. If Osobor can establish himself down low against Ernest Udeh and the TCU frontcourt, advantage: Aggies.

TCU Wins If: History repeats itself. Utah State is actually 2-0 all-time against TCU in a matchup that hasn’t happened in more than four decades, but the history we’re talking about here is Utah State losing 10 consecutive NCAA tournament games dating back to the second round of the 2001 dance. Granted, the Aggies were a double-digit seed in almost all of those instances, but even when they were a No. 8 seed in 2019, they got stomped by 17 in their first-round loss to Washington.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Utah State +4. I don’t quite understand why the spread here is more than a single possession. TCU is probably the better team, but not drastically so. Though, to be fair, five of USU’s six losses came by at least 13 points.

Predictions

David Kenyon: TCU

Kerry Miller: Utah State

Joel Reuter: TCU

No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes16 of 32

Mitchell SaxenDavid Becker/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 10:05 p.m. ET (truTV), Spokane

One-Sentence Synopsis: Ending the first round with a late-night clash between the Western Athletic Conference and West Coast Conference champs is just *chef’s kiss*.

Saint Mary’s Wins If: It owns the glass, which it almost always does. Saint Mary’s ranks third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and second in defensive rebounding, and allowing a lot of second-chance opportunities is something that doomed the ‘Lopes in three of their four losses this season. The very deliberate (slow) pace of the Saint Mary’s offense should also be an advantage in this one, as GCU wants to play a game with at least some rhythm.

Grand Canyon Wins If: It maintains composure and gets up high-percentage shots. This is an excellent mid-major team, but sometimes it does get a little sloppy, a little jacks-up-ill-advised-shots-y. But when the ‘Lopes are forcing turnovers on defense and driving to contact instead of settling for mediocre shots on offense, they’ll have a shot against anyone. Because make no mistake about it: GCU’s got dudes.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 131.5. Could this be a high-scoring affair? Sure. The Canyon can score in bunches when it gets going. But it has also played five games this season with 62 possessions or fewer, and the average total of those games was 118.8. And even Gonzaga, in three tries, was unable to generate a 130-point game against Saint Mary’s.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Grand Canyon

Kerry Miller: Grand Canyon

Joel Reuter: Saint Mary’s

No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Michigan State Spartans17 of 32

Tolu SmithAndy Lyons/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State (West Regional)

Details: Thursday at 12:15 p.m. (CBS), Charlotte

One-Sentence Synopsis: Such a toss-up, you might as well just write “MSU” on your bracket and see if it counts.

Mississippi State Wins If: Tolu Smith takes over. Without question, Michigan State’s biggest problem this season has been at center, with Tom Izzo seemingly never reaching a decision on who he trusts most in that spot. But Mississippi State doesn’t have that problem and should lean heavily on Smith to carry the load in this game. However, if green-and-white MSU plays Hack-a-Tolu, it might be able to neutralize the career 59.6 percent free-throw shooter.

Michigan State Wins If: Its veteran backcourt wins the day. Bulldogs freshman shooting guard Josh Hubbard is the wild card here, as he might attempt 15 three-pointers. But if he’s wildly jacking up threes while Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins are playing well and composed, the backcourt should be a significant advantage for the Spartans.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Tie game at halftime (+1600). Got to at least throw this dart at one of the games. Might as well be one that is basically a pick’em. And here’s a fun fact: At halftime of last year’s first round, Michigan State and USC were tied at 34-34, and Mississippi State trailed Pittsburgh 34-35.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Mississippi State

Kerry Miller: Mississippi State

Joel Reuter: Mississippi State

No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes18 of 32

Trevin KnellChris Gardner/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Duquesne (East Regional)

Details: Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV), Omaha

One-Sentence Synopsis: Duquesne will need to find some offense in this holy war in order to postpone its head coach’s retirement for at least two more days.

BYU Wins If: The threes are flowing. This almost always feels true of this year’s Cougars, who are attempting more than half their shots from beyond the arc. But it especially feels true in this matchup with Duquesne, which barely averages 70 points per game, and which is 5-10 when allowing 70 or more points and 19-1 when holding foes below that threshold.

Duquesne Wins If: The offense has an unusually proficient day. The Dukes are not a top-130 team in any offensive category on KenPom, but they have gotten hot on occasion. Typically only against teams who rank around 200th on KenPom, but they can get buckets if Jimmy Clark and Dae Dae Grant get into a groove.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 142. BYU did get stuck with the “first game of the day” slots in both of its Big 12 tournament games and did just fine on offense in the first one against UCF, but the Cougars looked half asleep in the first half of the second game against Texas Tech and otherwise has not played a game that tipped before 2 p.m. ET this season. Throw in Duquesne being much better at defense than offense and this could be a rock fight.

Predictions

David Kenyon: BYU

Kerry Miller: BYU

Joel Reuter: BYU

No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips19 of 32

Ryan KalkbrennerMichael Hickey/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT), Pittsburgh

One-Sentence Synopsis: Akron takes its double-double machine up against a well-rounded, potent Creighton squad.

Creighton Wins If: It shoots like it usually does in Omaha. When Good Creighton shows up, good luck. The Bluejays have an effective field-goal percentage 11.1 points greater than what they allow on defense, which is almost the widest gap in the country. (Connecticut’s is 12.0 points.) But getting Good Creighton to show up away from home has been a struggle at times, as it has failed to score 80 points in regulation in any game since a beatdown of woebegone DePaul more than two months ago.

Akron Wins If: Enrique Freeman destroys Creighton’s frontcourt. Akron’s 6’7″ center averages an Oscar Tshiebwe-like 18.6 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. He’ll also occasionally block a boatload of shots, like in the MAC semifinal against Ohio when he posted a 24-21-7 line. If he can do anything close to that against Ryan Kalkbrenner and the Bluejays, the Zips might be able to pull off something special.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 141. This Akron team doesn’t have a proficient offense, and it really hasn’t shown up against tournament-caliber opponents, averaging 60.0 points in its losses to Utah State, Drake and James Madison. And while the Bluejays can score in bunches, I’m not convinced they’re eclipsing 80 in Pittsburgh.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Creighton

Kerry Miller: Creighton

Joel Reuter: Creighton

No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 15 Long Beach State Beach20 of 32

Caleb Love and Kylan BoswellBrian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Long Beach State (West Regional)

Details: Thursday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS), Salt Lake City

One-Sentence Synopsis: Arizona looks to avoid a second consecutive upset at the hands of a No. 15 seed, this one playing for a recently fired coach in Dan Monson.

Arizona Wins If: It snaps out of its offensive funk. Arizona was one of the highest-scoring teams of the season, up until about 12 days ago. The Wildcats scored 65 in their season-finale loss to USC, only got to 70 against the Trojans in their Pac-12 opener and were held to 59 in the subsequent loss to Oregon. Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell need to get it together before the Wildcats repeat last year’s embarrassing loss to Princeton.

Long Beach State Wins If: Arizona throws up a ton of bricks. The Beach can help themselves a little bit via steals and blocks, but the only teams in the field with a less efficient defense than LBSU’s are No. 16 seeds Howard and Stetson. In particular, Long Beach struggles to defend the three, allowing nearly 27 attempts per game. But foes shot a combined 26.8 percent on those often open looks in the Big West tournament, and this team does have enough offense to pull off a stunner if that continues.

If I Had to Bet on Something: LBSU +20. The lame-duck head coach factor is so bizarre for LBSU, but it should be playing equal parts loose and motivated. I don’t realistically see the upset happening, but I can definitely see the Beach keeping things a little interesting.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Arizona

Kerry Miller: Arizona

Joel Reuter: Arizona

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 16 Wagner Seahawks21 of 32

RJ DavisGreg Fiume/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Wagner (West Regional)

Details: Thursday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Charlotte

One-Sentence Synopsis: Wagner’s pace might frustrate the Tar Heels, but very likely not enough for a historic upset.

North Carolina Wins If: There is going to be any semblance of order in this tournament. All hell broke loose during Championship Week, but we’re not seriously going to have the 332nd-ranked offense pulling off a monumental upset over the sixth-ranked defense, right? Against a very limited Wagner frontcourt, North Carolina should be fine.

Wagner Wins If: Lightning strikes twice in the NEC. Fairleigh Dickinson was the No. 68 overall seed in last year’s tournament, and we all know what happened with that team. Could FDU’s league-mate pull off an equally ginormous upset? It’s going to need to defy a season’s worth of horrible shooting against much worse defenses than what UNC will be bringing to the table, but maybe it will get hot while the Virginia-like pace on offense is like quicksand for the Tar Heels.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Wagner +25. Of the last four times UNC has been a No. 1 seed, it won its first-round game by a 15- to 19-point margin three times. And Wagner’s pace of play could help push that trend to four out of five.

Predictions

David Kenyon: North Carolina

Kerry Miller: North Carolina

Joel Reuter: North Carolina

No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles22 of 32

Dain Dainja and Terrence Shannon Jr.David Berding/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Morehead State (East Regional)

Details: Thursday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV), Omaha

One-Sentence Synopsis: Morehead State seeks to avoid falling to 0-4 vs. Big Ten opponents this season, while the Illini look to improve to 3-0 against the Ohio Valley.

Illinois Wins If: Morehead State’s defense holds up as poorly as it did against Alabama and Purdue. The Eagles have great defensive field-goal percentages for the season, but they were helpless against this caliber of foe, beaten 87-57 by Purdue and 105-73 by Alabama. And in adjusted offensive efficiency, Illinois ranks third in the nation—sandwiched directly between Alabama and Purdue.

Morehead State Wins If: Riley Minix puts on a clinic. MSU’s 6’7″ center averaged over 20 points and just under 10 rebounds per game. It won’t come easily against an Illinois team where seemingly everyone is also at least 6’7″, but maybe he takes over while the Eagles get up a lot of good looks against an Illinois defense that rarely forces turnovers.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 146.5. Illinois has scored at least 91 points in five of its last eight games, and Morehead State has solid shooting percentages. The Eagles generally take their time on offense, but they can be sped up. If that happens, this total easily eclipses 150.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Illinois

Kerry Miller: Illinois

Joel Reuter: Illinois

No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks23 of 32

Meechie JohnsonPh oto by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 4 p.m. ET (TNT), Pittsburgh

One-Sentence Synopsis: It’s the Gamecocks and the Ducks in what should be a close battle between fightin’ birds.

South Carolina Wins If: The primary shooters are connecting. South Carolina’s overall shooting percentages are not great, but Oregon’s defense is worse. (Or at least it was before the Pac-12 tournament.) Meechie Johnson and BJ Mack should get a good number of good looks from the perimeter, but will those two Gamecocks who both shoot 31.1 percent from three-point range on their combined 10 attempts per game actually take advantage?

Oregon Wins If: N’Faly Dante continues to dominate. Oregon’s oft-injured big man is averaging 19.3 points and 9.8 rebounds through six games in March, and he just completely took over the Pac-12 tournament, punctuated by a 12-of-12 shooting effort in the championship win over Colorado. South Carolina’s interior defense is usually solid, but we’ll see what Collin Murray-Boyles can do to slow down Dante.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 133.5. It’s tough to get a good read on this game, but 133.5 feels pretty low when neither team is elite on defense nor terrible on offense. There should be some good scoring runs. And, as always in a game that’s too close to call, you can’t forget the possibility of an extra five minutes to add points to the total.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Oregon

Kerry Miller: Oregon

Joel Reuter: Oregon

No. 7 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack24 of 32

DaRon Holmes IIIan Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada (West Regional)

Details: Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS), Salt Lake City

One-Sentence Synopsis: Most bracketologists thought that for this to be a 7/10 matchup, Nevada would have been the No. 7 and Dayton the No. 10.

Dayton Wins If: It gives DaRon Holmes II enough support. The AP second-team All-American is extremely talented, but Dayton has been prone to some duds, even when Holmes is having a typically great night. Case in point, he racked up 24 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and two blocks…as the Flyers were upset 65-57 by Duquesne in the A-10 quarters. They need Kobe Elvis and Co. to show up, too.

Nevada Wins If: It gets Holmes into early foul trouble. On average, Nevada’s opponents commit 21.3 fouls per game, which is the third-highest rate in the country. Both Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas thrive at driving to contact and will likely be doing everything in their power to get into Holmes’ body in pursuit of a few ticky-tack fouls when he’s hunting blocks. Frankly, though, any Flyer getting into foul trouble would be big for Nevada, as Dayton has almost no depth whatsoever.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Nevada -1. Excluding a couple of teams that would not have made the dance without an automatic bid, Dayton didn’t beat a single tournament team this season. And that combination of Nevada’s ability to draw fouls and Dayton’s lack of depth figures to be a major problem for the Flyers.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Dayton

Kerry Miller: Nevada

Joel Reuter: Nevada

No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Colorado State Rams25 of 32

Max AbmasChris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Colorado State (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT), Charlotte

One-Sentence Synopsis: Colorado State looks to build on First Four blowout of Virginia against a well-rested Texas squad.

Texas Wins If: Max Abmas takes over. A March Madness star from 2021 with Oral Roberts, Abmas made the transition from the Summit League to the Big 12 look almost seamless, averaging better than 17 points per game while eclipsing 3,000 for his career. He hit last-second game-winners against both Louisville and Cincinnati earlier this season, and the Longhorns might need a little more clutch magic from him here.

Colorado State Wins If: Isaiah Stevens takes over. Shockingly, Stevens wasn’t much of a factor at all against Virginia, finishing with a season-low five points and just four assists. But for the Rams to win against a considerably more capable Texas foe, he likely needs to win the individual showdown with Abmas. One of these 6’0″ lead guards is going to carry his team to victory.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Texas -140 ML. A lot of the public money is going to pour in on Colorado State after that dismantling of Virginia, but this will be the Rams’ fifth game in nine days, going from Las Vegas back to Fort Collins, then to Dayton and now to Charlotte. All the while, Texas has been getting healthy. It’s the old “rest vs. rust” debate, but rest wins the day here.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Colorado State

Kerry Miller: Texas

Joel Reuter: Colorado State

No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies26 of 32

Antonio ReevesMichael Chang/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oakland (South Regional)

Details: Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Pittsburgh

One-Sentence Synopsis: Kentucky puts its high-octane offense against an Oakland defense that likely won’t be able to supply much resistance.

Kentucky Wins If: It takes advantage of a bad defense. We’ve said and heard all season that Kentucky plays no defense, but Oakland really plays no defense. The Grizz allow assists at the highest rate in the nation, as well as a ton of three-pointers. A Kentucky offense averaging better than 97 points over its last six games ought to have a field day.

Oakland Wins If: It is able to run with the bulls, so to speak. Very few teams have been able to slow down Kentucky, but plenty have been able to join the Wildcats in a track meet and beat them there. Oakland’s offense isn’t great, but it can score. Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman have combined for more than 200 made triples this season. Let it fly, guys.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 162. Aside from Alabama-Charleston, this might be the highest total on the board in the first round, but it’s not high enough. By the time this game tips off, it will have been a full month since Kentucky last played in a game with fewer than 166 points scored, including a couple in the 200s.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Kentucky

Kerry Miller: Kentucky

Joel Reuter: Kentucky

No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys27 of 32

Graham IkeSoobum Im/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese State (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Salt Lake City

One-Sentence Synopsis: This year’s biggest Cinderella threat has to begin its journey against college basketball’s foremost Cinderella-turned-juggernaut.

Gonzaga Wins If: Graham Ike (pronounced: EE-kay, FYI) does one heck of a Drew Timme impersonation. Gonzaga’s defense is not very good, particularly along the perimeter, while McNeese State ranks top-10 in the nation in three-point percentage and top-25 in offensive turnover percentage. But Gonzaga’s defense was also not very good last year, yet it made it to the Elite Eight on the shoulders of Timme scoring 85 points in those first three wins. Ike has been routinely scoring north of 20 as of late and could be that interior savior they need against an undersized McNeese State squad.

McNeese State Wins If: It dominates the turnover battle. The Cowboys forced 220 more turnovers than they committed. Only Big 12 freight trains Houston and Iowa State fared better in that department. And while a lot of that is surely a product of a weak schedule, McNeese already had one of the best turnover margins in the nation before Southland play began. Their coach is former VCU coach Will Wade, and the Cowboys seem to have unlocked the fully evolved form of HAVOC.

If I Had to Bet on Something: McNeese State +6.5. Even if you’re not quite feeling the upset, this should be one of those classic 5/12 matchups that comes right down to the wire.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Gonzaga

Kerry Miller: McNeese State

Joel Reuter: McNeese State

No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits28 of 32

Keshon GilbertScott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State (East Regional)

Details: Thursday at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV), Omaha

One-Sentence Synopsis: With the Cyclones a No. 2 seed for the first time since the historic loss to Hampton in 2001, T.J. Otzelberger hopes to steer Iowa State clear of another first-round disaster, this one against his former employer.

Iowa State Wins If: It hits some threes and does its usual turnover-forcing thing. After trouncing Houston in the Big 12 championship, the Cyclones took the Cougars’ spot as the most efficient defense in the nation. They do it largely in the turnover department, where South Dakota State’s offense is nothing special. When they aren’t getting fast-break buckets, the Cyclones should get a ton of open three-point looks against a porous Jackrabbits perimeter defense.

South Dakota State Wins If: Familiarity breeds contempt and lots of contested buckets. SDSU knows Otzelberger well from his three years there, though his coaching style could not be more different from what it used to be. Maybe the Jackrabbits can still find something, though. They had to know there was a good chance they were going to draw Iowa State in the first round, so they may have been studying film on the Cyclones for more than a week.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Iowa State -16. By no means is South Dakota State as bad as some of the opponents on the extremely weak nonconference schedule the Cyclones put together this season, but blowing out overmatched opponents is exactly what this team does. While Otzelberger probably doesn’t want to embarrass the team that gave him his first shot as a head coach, he also won’t have any interest in playing with his food here. ISU gets up by 20-plus before calling off the dogs.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Iowa State

Kerry Miller: Iowa State

Joel Reuter: Iowa State

No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s Peacocks29 of 32

Dalton KnechtEakin Howard/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT), Charlotte

One-Sentence Synopsis: What could possibly go wrong for a No. 2 seed from the SEC facing Saint Peter’s on the first Thursday night of the dance?

Tennessee Wins If: Saint Peter’s possessions go the way they should. The Peacocks have dreadful shooting marks and commit way more than their fair share of turnovers. Scoring 60 has often been a struggle for this team, and it was held to 40 in a loss to Rutgers. Now combine that offense with Tennessee’s defense and things could/should get mighty ugly.

Saint Peter’s Wins If: There’s a healthy dose of Doug Edert and Shaheen Holloway left in that program. Both the 20-point scorer in the upset of Kentucky and the head coach who directed that historic Elite Eight run skipped town a long time ago, but the team’s style of play hasn’t really changed. The Peacocks still play an extremely physical brand of basketball, pretty much to make up for their poor offense. But, you know, good luck pushing against a Tennessee team that will shove right back.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 130. I don’t necessarily think this will be a close game, but I don’t think it’ll be a pretty one, either. Maybe Dalton Knecht goes off for 30-plus and/or there are just so many free throws that the over eventually hits, but we’ve seen a lot of 2/15 rock fights over the years that fell several buckets shy of 130. This feels like the one this year.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Tennessee

Kerry Miller: Tennessee

Joel Reuter: Tennessee

No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack30 of 32

Pop IsaacsScott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Matchup: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (South Regional)

Details: Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Pittsburgh

One-Sentence Synopsis: Red-hot ACC tourney champ takes on a Red Raiders team much more renowned for its offense than for its defense this year.

Texas Tech Wins If: Non-ACC tournament NC State shows up. Not only did NC State lose 10 of its final 14 regular-season games, but it also trailed Louisville for basically the entire first half of its ACC tournament opener. Then, out of nowhere, the Wolfpack couldn’t be beaten. However, if “normal” NC State shows back up, Texas Tech’s three-point assault should win, and win big.

NC State Wins If: DJ Horne and DJ Burns keep doing their thing. Burns was the big man who was able to back his way into the paint whenever he wanted last weekend, and it is notably unclear whether TTU center Warren Washington will be able to play after missing the past six games. Horne is the NC State shooting guard of double-bird-flipping fame who had 29 in the ACC championship and a stretch of six straight 24-plus-point games earlier this season. That duo could be a problem.

If I Had to Bet on Something: NC State +180 ML. By no means are we expecting a repeat of Kemba Walker winning five games in five days before carrying UConn to the 2011 natty, but State is good enough to win this game and just might be able to replicate Oregon State’s 2021 run to the Elite Eight after a shocking conference tournament run.

Predictions

David Kenyon: NC State

Kerry Miller: NC State

Joel Reuter: NC State

No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs31 of 32

Dajuan Harris Jr.Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford (Midwest Regional)

Details: Thursday at 9:55 p.m. ET (TBS), Salt Lake City

One-Sentence Synopsis: Kansas had better hope its backups are ready for this frantic battle with Bucky Ball.

Kansas Wins If: Hunter Dickinson can play and carry the team. Playing at less than full strength, Kansas lost by 20 to Cincinnati, by 29 to Texas Tech and by 30 to Houston, all within its last eight games. But this team was never built to play short-handed. Even at full strength, the Jayhawks have very little depth, and those games just got out of hand in a hurry. We already know Kevin McCullar Jr. won’t be playing, but it sounds like Dickinson will try to give it a go. Hopefully for Kansas, his shoulder is good enough to carry a heavy load.

Samford Wins If: Threes are falling and steals are flowing. The Bulldogs average 10 made three-pointers and 10 steals per game, both of which are already areas of concern for a Kansas team that doesn’t do a great job of defending the perimeter and that occasionally has significant issues in the turnover department. If Samford can push the pace and push a minimal-depth Kansas squad around a little bit in a physical game, watch out.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Samford +7. Maybe the Bulldogs fall short of the upset, but they’re going to make things interesting. Kansas already had issues playing away from home before it also had health issues, and it’s hard to see the Jayhawks running away with this one, given the stylistic concerns in this matchup.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Samford

Kerry Miller: Samford

Joel Reuter: Kansas

No. 7 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 10 Drake Bulldogs32 of 32

Isaac JonesDavid Becker/Getty Images

Matchup: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake (East Regional)

Details: Thursday at 10:05 p.m. ET (truTV), Omaha

One-Sentence Synopsis: Capping off a wild Thursday with this coin-flip of a 7/10 showdown is going to be fantastic.

Washington State Wins If: It leverages its size advantage. Per KenPom, the Cougars were tied with Florida State for the tallest average height in the nation. Point guard Myles Rice is 6’3″. Everyone else who plays meaningful minutes is at least 6’7″. And Drake doesn’t even rank top-300 in average height. The Bulldogs do lead the nation in defensive rebounding, but their interior defense isn’t great. Isaac Jones could have a field day.

Drake Wins If: Washington State fails to fully utilize its size advantage. This one really seems to boil down to just that. Drake is arguably the better overall team. The Bulldogs certainly have the more efficient offense and the player most likely to go off for 30-plus points in Tucker DeVries. But can they roughly break even on the glass and avoid getting just two-point-bucketed to death?

If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 137.5. Neither of these teams particularly wants to push the pace, but this should be a relatively high-scoring game. Drake is averaging 82.1 over its last 19 games, scoring at least 72 in all but one. Washington State shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring inside. And let’s not overlook the possibility of overtime here…

Predictions

David Kenyon: Drake

Kerry Miller: Drake

Joel Reuter: Drake