Mets predicted to retain breakout star pitcher on $76 million contract

For all the focus on the New York Mets’ pursuit of superstar free agents like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, there are also several key free agents in danger of leaving Queens.

Because they didn’t expect to be World Series contenders, the Mets signed a series of low-risk free agents last winter, and nearly all of them turned out to be smart pickups. But after the Mets unexpectedly made a deep playoff run, they now must decide whether those rental players are worth keeping around long-term.

Sean Manaea is perhaps the most noteworthy of those rentals. The Mets signed him to a two-year, $26 million contract with a player option, which he declined after an excellent season. Then, he declined the $21 million qualifying offer the Mets tendered him, making him a fully untethered free agent.

The Mets would love to keep Manaea, but competition is expected to be fierce. And because New York essentially has three open spots in its rotation, losing Manaea would make it a lot tougher to stay contenders in 2025.

Fortunately for New York, Ryan Finkelstein of Just Baseball sees the Mets keeping their man. Finkelstein recently predicted that Manaea would sign a four-year, $74 million deal to remain a Met.

“Sean Manaea is coming off a career-year, where he established himself as the ace of the New York Mets on their deep playoff run to Game 6 of the NLCS. Manaea started that game and struggled as he had clearly run out of gas, after getting pushed more than he ever had in his career,” Finkelstein said.

“In the middle of the season, Manaea dropped his arm angle to mimic Chris Sale, and it made him one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. From June 14th through the end of the season, Manaea led all starting pitchers in innings pitched (121) and in batting average against (.178).”

In total, Manaea had a 12-6 record, 3.47 ERA, and 184 strikeouts in 32 starts this year. But his peripheral stats, like WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeout-to-walk rate all improved tremendously after the mechanical adjustment Finkelstein alludes to.

Manaea, who will be 33 on Opening Day, could be the latest starting pitcher to experience a late-career resurgence. And New York seems like the perfect place for him to do so.

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