Mets Wild Card clinching scenarios ahead of 2024 MLB playoffs

Here are the playoff scenarios for the Mets during the final games of the regular season, with the postseason set to begin next week…

Mets clinch a Wild Card spot if…The Mets (87-71) are tied with the Braves (87-71) and Diamondbacks (88-72) for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League.

However, because the Mets won the season series over the D-backs, they own the tiebreaker and will finish ahead of them if the two teams end the season tied.

Heading into this week’s three-game series in Atlanta, the math for the Mets was simple — win two games against the Braves and they clinch a Wild Card spot. But because the final two games of the series were postponed due to weather (to be made up on Monday as part of a doubleheader), New York is in Milwaukee this weekend with business against the Braves unresolved.

And even after losing on Friday, the Mets still control their own fate.

If they go at least 3-1 over their final four games, they’re in. But they can also get in by going 2-2 — as long as those two wins come against the Braves.

Here’s where it gets complicated…

In a world where the Mets clinch a playoff spot before the games with the Braves are set to be played on Monday, and those games are only needed for seeding, it’s possible they will not be played.

In order to clinch before then, the Mets would have to gain at least one game on the D-backs this over the next two days.

Here are the scenarios:

If the Mets go 2-0 in their final two games against the Brewers and the D-backs go 1-1 against the Padres, the Mets would be 89-71 and Arizona would be 89-73. That would clinch a playoff spot for the Mets because of the aforementioned tiebreaker. And if the Mets go 1-1 against Milwaukee (winding up 88-72) while Arizona goes 0-2 against San Diego (winding up 88-74), the Mets clinch.

Even in a scenario where the Mets are swept by the Brewers and the Braves sweep the Royals, the Mets would still be able to clinch a spot by sweeping Monday’s doubleheader, which — in this scenario — would put the Mets and Braves in a tie and give New York the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series.

Got all that?

Sep 22, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) reacts to hitting a home run as he rounds the bases against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at Citi Field. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The remaining schedulesThe Mets and Braves both have four games left, while the Diamondbacks have just two games remaining.

Here’s how it plays out:

Mets: 2 at Brewers (Saturday and Sunday), 2 at Braves (Monday)
Braves: 2 vs. Royals (Saturday and Sunday, 2 vs. Mets (Monday)
D-backs: 2 vs. Padres (Saturday and Sunday)

The Mets are facing a Brewers team that has nothing left to play for. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central and is locked into the No. 3 seed/Wild Card round for the playoffs. That’s because they cannot catch either the Phillies or Dodgers for one of the byes (they don’t have tie tiebreaker over either team).

As evidenced by their win on Friday, the Brewers will obviously not roll over. But it’s hard to envision them pushing their starting pitchers or key relievers hard.

The Braves are playing a Royals team that clinched a Wild Card spot on Friday night because the Twins lost. That means Kansas City is only playing for seeding. They cannot catch the Orioles for the top Wild Card spot in the American League, so they’re simply battling the Tigers to determine who gets the second Wild Card and who gets the third.

The D-backs are facing a Padres team that locked up the top Wild Card spot with their win on Friday, so they are no longer playing for anything.