MLB Free Agents Who Could Become Superstars on New Teams in 2025
Zachary D. RymerOctober 27, 2024MLB Free Agents Who Could Become Superstars on New Teams in 20250 of 7
Evan Bernstein/Getty Images
Players can walk through any number of doors once they reach MLB free agency. And for some, the only wrong choice is the one they just walked out of.
As an example, consider Teoscar Hernández.
He entered the market last winter off a down year with the Seattle Mariners, but there was a clear reason for it. Hernández and T-Mobile Park simply didn’t get along, as he had a .643 OPS there compared to an .830 OPS on the road.
After joining the Los Angeles Dodgers on a one-year deal, Hernández hit 33 home runs, won the Home Run Derby and is now in the World Series. A potential nine-figure payday awaits him in his next trip to the open market this offseason.
So, which of this winter’s potential free agents are candidates to pull a Hernández?
There are many pending free agents whose upside goes beyond what their past results indicate, but not all would be best served by leaving home. To name just a couple, Yusei Kikuchi fits well with the Houston Astros and Gleyber Torres leaving the New York Yankees would mean fewer hacks at Yankee Stadium’s short porch.
As for guys who should want to seek better results elsewhere, let’s dive into the details on seven of them. We’ll proceed in alphabetical order.
RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers1 of 7
Walker BuehlerRobert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 16 GS, 75.1 IP, 89 H (16 HR), 64 K, 28 BB, 5.38 ERA
The Current State of His Career
His story isn’t finished yet, but the Walker Buehler of 2024 has thus far not resembled the Walker Buehler of 2018-2021.
The earlier version of Buehler put up a 2.82 ERA and earned Cy Young Award votes in 2019 and 2021. He also menaced the opposition in the playoffs, posting a 2.94 ERA and striking out 101 batters in 79.2 innings.
It isn’t just the 5.38 ERA that Buehler put up this season that suggests he’s not the same since undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. The quality of his stuff has has degraded, with his average fastball notably sitting 1 mph below his career norm.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Then again, what if Buehler simply stopped throwing his four-seam fastball?
It is easily identifiable as the worst pitch (.342 AVG, -8 Run Value) in his repertoire. But while his usage of the four-seamer has indeed declined, it isn’t surprising that the Dodgers haven’t advised him to scrap it. They throw more four-seamers than any other National League team.
Buehler is not lacking for other pitches to fall back on. He also throws a cutter, sinker and curveball, as well as a nasty sweeper.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaIn his career, Walker Buehler has thrown 4 Sweepers in with over 2 Feet of Horizontal Break.
And, they were ALL last night. 😳 pic.twitter.com/0LebWSEKfu
Though he’ll be a reclamation project either way, it would be fascinating to see if a team other than the Dodgers could get Buehler to throw more sinkers and cutters. It’s not an especially common approach, but it sure works for Corbin Burnes.
LF Michael Conforto, San Francisco Giants2 of 7
Michael ConfortoEakin Howard/Getty Images
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 130 G, 488 PA, 20 HR, 0 SB, .237 AVG, .309 OBP, .450 SLG
The Current State of His Career
Michael Conforto was consistently one of the top hitters in baseball between 2017 and 2020, ultimately racking up an .864 OPS and 97 home runs.
Then came a down year in 2021, followed by an unfulfilled free-agent saga and shoulder surgery that cost him the entire 2022 season. And since then, two inoffensive yet also unspectacular seasons with the Giants.
Conforto has posted a .740 OPS with only 35 home runs in 225 games. Numbers like those don’t leap off the page for anyone, but they especially don’t look good when attached to a bat-only player like this one.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Remember in the intro how we talked about Teoscar Hernández’s home/road splits sending a clear message about how he fit in Seattle?
We can do the same thing with Conforto’s numbers as a Giant:
Home: .661 OPS, 9 HRAway: .803 OPS, 26 HRNot exactly a shocker, right? Even with its new dimensions, Oracle Park is still the most power-suppressing stadium in MLB. And it’s even tougher on left-handed hitters like Conforto.
Otherwise, Conforto’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate for 2024 were the best they had been since the mid-2010s. Like Clint Eastwood when he escaped Alcatraz, he just plain needs to get out of San Francisco.
RHP Clay Holmes, New York Yankees3 of 7
Clay HolmesLauren Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 67 G, 50 GF, 63.0 IP, 60 H (4 HR), 68 K, 22 BB, 3.14 ERA
The Current State of His Career
Wait, wasn’t Clay Holmes just an All-Star for the second time in his career?
Yes he was, but his season was already headed south by the time he got the All-Star call in July. After posting a 0.00 ERA through his first 20 appearances, Holmes finished with a 4.60 ERA for his next 47. He blew 12 saves in the latter stretch.
Holmes is still a key reliever for Aaron Boone and the Yankees in the playoffs, but he didn’t exactly come into the World Series hot. He allowed runs in each of his last two appearances in the ALCS, with two coming on David Fry’s walk-off in Game 3.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Despite all of the above, Holmes remains a guy who looks unhittable. And there are metrics that back those uptics up.
According to Stuff+, Holmes was among the 10 nastiest pitchers who logged at least 60 innings in 2024. Specifically, he might have the best slider in the sport.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaClay Holmes, Nasty 84mph Breaking Ball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/DezAatFvIK
It’s the sinker on which Holmes bases his attack, and it seems the Yankees are either unwilling or unable to communicate that it’s also his biggest liability. Opposing hitters batted .317 against it this season.
Another team might have better luck, either in getting Holmes to downplay his sinker or to stop throwing it entirely. Given how hard he throws (96.6 mph on average) and how nasty his breaking stuff is, he probably could be remade into a more of an archetypal power reliever.
RHP Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds4 of 7
Nick MartinezDavid J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age: 34
2024 Stats: 42 G, 16 GS, 142.1 IP, 128 H (13 HR), 116 K, 18 BB, 3.10 ERA
The Current State of His Career
Whether Nick Martinez becomes a free agent depends on what Nick Martinez himself wants to do. As much as he likes Cincinnati, he stands to make less money ($12 million) in 2025 than he did this year ($14 million) if he exercises his option for next season.
The guess here is that he’ll opt out, in which case he would reenter the market off a strong, but not quite eye-popping season.
That has been Martinez’s lane for three years since he returned from a four-year stint in Japan. He has a 3.31 ERA to show for 152 appearances, all but 35 of which have come in relief.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Like with Teoscar Hernández and Michael Conforto, one’s eyes are liable to go wide when gazing upon Martinez’s home/road splits as a Red:
Home: 4.00 ERA, .769 OPSRoad: 2.18 ERA, .503 OPSYou can get a sense of the sheer hitter-friendliness of Great American Ball Park, which is especially noteworthy in one way: It is the best park in MLB for home run hitters.
That’s not good for any pitcher, but least of all guys who don’t miss bats. Martinez fits that profile, though he has been elite at stifling exit velocity in each of the last two seasons. This year also saw him walk a career-low 3.2 percent of the batters he faced.
He looks like the next coming of Seth Lugo from a certain angle, but I could just be saying that because Martinez would also fit the Kansas City Royals perfectly.
RHP Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox 5 of 7
Nick PivettaPaul Rutherford/Getty Images
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 27 G, 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 128 H (28 HR), 172 K, 36 BB, 4.14 ERA
The Current State of His Career
Suffice it to say that Nick Pivetta had a better run with the Red Sox than he did with the Philadelphia Phillies.
He put up a 4.29 ERA for Boston, compared to a 5.50 ERA for Philly. He was also adaptable to different roles as a Red Sox, mostly working as a starter but also posting a 3.07 ERA as a multi-inning fireman in 2023.
Pivetta’s persistent problem, however, is that he’s a home run magnet. He’s given up an average of 1.5 home runs per nine innings overall, and at least 20 in all seven of his full seasons.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Whatever Pivetta’s issue is, it’s not his stuff.
Once again going to Stuff+, Pivetta had the best stuff of any pitcher who logged at least 100 innings in 2024. His four-seamer, curveball and sweeper especially play well, and even his little-used cutter rates as above average.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaNick Pivetta’s 10Ks. pic.twitter.com/MR3GnS7dRZ
Though home runs are likely to always be a problem for Pivetta to some degree, he could really take off if he were to sign with a team that has a more forgiving home park.
To name just a couple, the San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians should all be in the market for his services this winter.
RHP Spencer Turnbull, Philadelphia Phillies6 of 7
Spencer TurnbullRich Schultz/Getty Images
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 17 G, 7 GS, 54.1 IP, 37 H (6 HR), 58 K, 20 BB, 2.65 ERA
The Current State of His Career
If Spencer Turnbull is known for anything, it’s for throwing a no-hitter in 2021. Or at least, one hopes that people aren’t quicker to remember when he had a 3-17 record in 2019.
Either way, he isn’t a guy who stands out from the crowd. And he’s indeed been largely unable to in the last three years. He missed all of 2022 and most of 2023 because of Tommy John surgery and a good chunk of this year with a strained lat.
Turnbull now fits the general description of a depth piece. As in, a guy who’s somewhere between a fifth starter and a long man in a bullpen.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
Let’s once again go back to Stuff+ to see how the quality of Turnbull’s pitches is progressing:
2021: 1042023: 982024: 112In other words, Turnbull’s stuff got significantly better this season. This had much to do with his new sweeper, though he also boasts a pretty good curveball and changeup.
Clearly, the 1.67 ERA that Turnbull posted in six starts out of the gate in April didn’t come out of nowhere. A team should sign him in hopes that there will be more where that came from if he can stay healthy.
Ideally, that team will have a home park that is less punishing to pitchers than Citizens Bank Park.
1B Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks7 of 7
Christian WalkerDustin Bradford/Getty Images
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 130 G, 552 PA, 26 HR, 2 SB, .251 AVG, .335 OBP, .468 SLG
The Current State of His Career
Anyone who says that Christian Walker is already a star has firm ground to stand on.
By WAR, he’s the fifth-most valuable first baseman of the last three seasons. The 95 home runs he’s hit help his cause, and he also stands alone as the best defender at the cold corner.
On the less-positive side, Walker will be 34 on March 28, 2025 and his numbers aren’t exactly trending up. To these ends, he’s less central superstar and more finishing piece.
How Changing Scenery Could Help
As impressive as Walker’s performance over the last three seasons is on the surface, it actually looks better in context.
Chase Field isn’t entirely bad for hitters, but it is a bad place to hit home runs. Even Walker occasionally felt the brunt of that. He hit 52 home runs on the road between 2022 and 2024, compared to 43 at home. That’s despite a difference of just three games played.
It isn’t hard to imagine Walker making a run at a 40-homer season in 2025 if he ends up in a place that would promise to amplify his right-handed pull power.
Just sayin’: The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox should both take a strong look.
